-> In March, price tested (and was rejected by) the resistance level (which happens to be a Big Round Number of 1.2900).
This was followed by downward move to 1.2600 area, then a short term upward trend again to same 1.2900 level
-> Before the latest 2BR, price again tested and was rejected by the level twice ( 1st:large pinbar, 2nd: hanging man ), and each time found support at 1.2800 area.
-> The (big) 2BR was the 3rd recent rejection. Hence entry was not to fight the prior uptrend but to take advantage of the current ranging/consolidation.
Thanks for explaining your thoughts on the setup. I don’t really think it would have been a bad entry at all, however, I do think that it had a couple things going against it and in looking for A+ setups, this one wouldn’t have offered enough for me to enter.
I would mainly look to take profits at previous levels of support and resistance. Another thing I look at (I dont give as much weight to this as I do the S&R levels) is fibonacci levels measured off of the previous swing. If you are trading AGAINST the trend, you have to look to take profits at levels that have already held as S&R, or take profits at Fibonacci retracements. If you are trading WITH the trend, you can expect price to reach past previous levels of S&R, and possibly shoot for Fibonacci extensions.
If you are taking A+ setups either with or against the trend, you should have a good edge, and a good winning percentage, so either way should make money in the long run. I would still prefer my money to work a little harder for me and be able to aim for better profit targets and better R/R ratios.
Just a quick one, I know the candle hasn’t finished yet but it seems to be the perfect setup to me. Short on the EURGBP D1 timeframe assuming the pinbar holds out.
Actually that wouldn’t be considered a valid trade setup as taught in this thread. That pinbar would look pretty good following an upswing against the trend giving you the opportunity to short near the top of a swing. However, price has already moved down substantially and you would be looking for the long wick to be at the bottom of the candle rather than the top, and trading right into support for the chance to go long. That pinbar as it stands should just be ignored.
@gliderguider - on the 4h chart there is a more definite retrace with a pin bar formed at s/r. i placed a pending order on this one which should trigger soon. not looking for a major move just 40 pips or so
@dudest - turns out price did make a nice retrace back down! would have been a nice counter trend trade
one thing i recently tried, being a total newbie to trading on a demo account, is placing as many orders as i can if i see any potential pa signals on the 4h and daily charts. i know it’s not recommended, but it is a good way to
a) get a feel for actually being in trades and the emotions that go along with it
b) get a feel for the ebb and flow of price and give me an understanding of how it feels to watch a trade for a few days before it either stops out or hits t/p, without needing to intervene either way. i can watch the profits/losses of several trades in unison over the course of a few days all move together either towards t/p or towards s/l. the profit counter is a nice way to get a feel of the speed of the markets for multiple pairs at once, as opposed to flipping between charts and trying to guage movement based on the price line imo
c) it gives a written record of all of these trades in the mt4 trade history so i can review what worked and what didn’t etc
last wednesday after seeing no setups early in the week, i finally saw a bunch of possible pa trades and placed 14 pending orders on 4h charts. long story short, by friday i hit 7 stops, and by monday afternoon i hit 7 t/p’s. i ended up profiting $47 dollars on a 2990 dollar (demo) account which for a weekly total was actually not that bad. strangely i also noticed that 6 of 7 losing trades were buys and 5 of 7 winners were sells
i read johns post about how he made 15 trades in the past 3 months and that is where i want to be. so this is purely experimentation, fast tracking i guess. i still haven’t gotten into placing multiple orders on a pair and doing the whole take partial profit and move to break even thing. still much to learn for me. just sharing what may/may not be a way to speed up the learning process (yes? no?)
Wow, where to start dude. There is NO speeding up anything, and you will NEVER be able to experience emotions on a demo
account sorry to say.
Now where you got all those trades from I have no clue. The last trade I was in was USD/JPY 4H that was discussed, and just to be honest im in the EUR/AUD 4h BUT it was a B+ trade than A+. Sorry Johno :56:
thanks spongybob, i was expecting my cluelessness to get the best of me and post about it at some point : /
i just thought, as a noob, that it was interesting to for the first time, watch the profit/loss counter for about 5 or 6 trades move in near tandem over the course of a few days. for the first day they would all slowly move in one direction, then for the second day slowly together in another direction. i also noticed that two or more pairs would either get stopped out or reach t/p at the same time. for example, four of the winners all hit t/p within an hour of each other, roughly three trading days after i placed them.
just some things that made me say hmmmmm like arsenio used to say. thanks for bringing the reality check though. i do realize that an important element in johns trading plan is the stability and predictability of daily candles and longer term trades. this was just an experiment though! totally unplanned and no expectations. please forgive a noobie
can anyone advise their thoughts on the daily gbp/aud ? looks like we have a 2 bar reversal at swing high (trend going up so that reversal would take us short) - am i reading this correctly ? i am new to analysing PA so any thoughts welcome.
yes what everyone else has already said. This is actually not a Pin Bar. I think it would be great if you read the first few pages of the thread just to really get the idea of what we do.
We need to wait for markets to retrace and give us some value. In other words in this case we want to sell high and buy low and when going long buy low, sell high.
This wouldn’t be a surprise to see continue lower but please also be aware what this PA is an inverted Pin bar. These suckers catch out new traders all the time as they are actually signals to go the opposite way.
If you took the trade I hope it goes lower for you!
yes the last trade I was in was also the USDJPY. I can feel people getting itchy to trade… haha They go 3 days without placing a trade and they just can’t help it! All the while they don’t realise it is exactly that feeling and action that is stopping them from achieving their trading goals! This is why so few can make money consistently because only few can master the sitting on the hands!
Oh and don’t apologise to me. The market will hurt you more than me if you keep that up!:58:
Just had a great idea. When I get spare min I am going to put up the popular article with links to the front page. Then all I have to do is refer people to the front page.
I have a free price indicator, which may help people to get used to this theory. Have a look.
[B]Price Alert MetaTrader[/B] indicator will plays sound alerts when the price reaches certain levels that are set by the trader. There are three types of alerts: first one is used when the price rises above certain level (displayed with the green line on the chart), second one is used when the price falls below certain level (displayed with the red line on the chart), third one is used when the price reaches the certain level exactly (displayed with the yellow line). All alerts turn off when they are triggered and can be turned on again with the new values. If you use e-mail alert feature, don’t forget to set the e-mail settings in your MetaTrader platform options window
