Well Ethernal.
If I would trade this setup, I’ll entry with PB parameters.
I show you with the graph below.
How do you trade this setup?
Don’t waste your time watching what is happening 2.5 hours before a candle closes. Volatility is volatile, and price can fluctuate drastically in that small time frame. I found that checking the charts a couple of minutes after close is the least-taxing on the psyche (if you can). Something like- 9am EST, 1pm EST, 5pm EST. So, you can see 3 nice 4 hour candles, and the close of the Daily. You are always prepared to jump on a setup if one presents itself, but there is no use in trying to predict how a candle will/wont close. It will either make you happy, or upset (if it doesn’t go the way you want). So, by not checking, you remain neutral until it is confirmed- ya know? That’s how I see it at least.
I’ve given this a good bit of thought and have decided to pass on this, I am sure many pips will be made but for me risking 150+ pips for 95 at this stage is not for me. I am focused on getting back in the green so I will wait for another set up to come along with a slightly less risk amount.
That is a wise decision however on higher TF the SL will be always greater
Well, I live in Europe and NY closing time is close to bedtime for me, so I check charts during the evening, so I can quickly check in the morning, before going to work, whether to take a trade or not. So I do my homework in the evening as a preparation. Guess that’s the handicap for not living close to NY timezone.
Here is my setup (please remember I am not just a newbie but someone who blew 50 % of his account recently so take it with a grain of salt)
On demo account I have 3 Stop Buy orders each with a different TP
When first TP is reached I will move the SL of the remaining two to break even
if TP 2 is reached then i will move the SL of the last to TP1 and let it play
Green line is my entry point
That’s a good job to entry. I’ve learned it on my previous course 
Thanks a lot to share your deal.
Cla
Hi all,
I am too much on the losing side at the moment with EUR/CAD and AUD/JPY so I think it may be time to get back to asking for other’s opinion before putting orders.
Projection on EUR/USD Daily (2 hours to close but BUEB tend to stay BUEB a lot more than Pinbars from what I noticed.), price has retraced not a lot but I understand it is a strong up trend so pullback can be smaller (correct me if I’m wrong).
If price can break 1.355 next major resistance according to weekly is 1.365 (we can move to weekly TF if there is no apparent sr/line within the daily timeframe, right ?)
So that would be a trade with entry like 1.355 (10 pips buffer + extra distance to confirm break of 1.355 level and TP at 1.365 and SL @1.345.
Any view on this ? Or is this considered as buying high ?
Yves
I wanted to comment on the GBPCAD pair that has been discussed here recently. I understand this has been a trade(talking about those who went short) taken by quite a few people and including seniors. I am not questioning anyone’s trades but just want to add value to the current discussion. Some of the stuff I will discuss may be a little more advanced to some here, so I am mainly directing this to seniors and those who understand the topics I will be discussing.
I first wanted to establish the strength of the uptrend. There is a clear uptrend that really started in march and has been making very clear HH’s and HL’s ever since. There has been no indication of a weakness in this trend. In the picture I added, I made note of a possible HH and HL that happened on 8/12. I would submit that this was never part of a new swing HH and HL, but just noise within the actual swing higher than goes from 07/10 to 08/23. Swings in a trend tend to have similar distance and intensity. This helps use filter out noise from actual swings. You may be wondering why it even matters if 08/12 was a new HH/HL, but it matters very much. Because the swing low on 09/06 swung lower than the low on 08/12, which if we say 08/12 was a new swing, it would indicate a weakening in the uptrend and a comprised uptrend. But I propose the HL on 09/06 should be compared to the actual previous HL on 07/10. This would indicate a continuation of the strong uptrend and no weakening. I believe a short at any point right now is an absolute CT against a strong uptrend, and not just a range trade.
NOTE: A 1-2-3 reversal pattern was discussed here so I wanted to very briefly talk about it. 1-2-3 patterns are NOT traded in this forum, only for FSO members/followers. But my analysis would not be complete without at least briefly discussing
I also believe a short based on a 1-2-3 would be absolutely premature. For a 1-2-3 to be valid the leg from 3 must break below 2. Otherwise this could either just be more noise in a longer uptrend that has yet to play out. Playing a short based on 1-2-3 would be similar to entering a pinbar before price has broke the high or low of the candle. Just as a price action candle is not validated until price has broken it, a 1-2-3 is not validated until 3 has broken below 2. A better comparison may be entering a pinbar before it has closed, which may not even close as a pinbar. The same way this 1-2-3 really hasn’t even formed yet, and could just continue upwards in a HH trending fashion.
In conclusion there was definitely a trade there for those who have CT trading in their skill basket. It is also clear that this formed at the same level as the noise from 08/12, which could be seen as a SR level. I wanted to just point out I think the uptrend is clearly intact, and has not yet been compromised. And a 1-2-3 at this point would be highly speculative. These are all personal opinions and constructive criticism is welcome!
Hi,
I think that it is set very well.
Just one remark.
I think that there should be bigger steps between your TP’s. First TP is good but there is no reason why have TP2 and TP3. You can have your second TP2 somewhere between your TP2 and TP3.
Just my opinion.
Of course if you feel that price can go higher you can place your TP3 above recent high.
That sounded very advanced. Looks like we miss a lot of the good stuff by not being members. I will seriously have to think about it. However, I was already kind of using these 1-2-3 patterns to try and spot were PA are the most relevant and I agree the move down was speculative but you have to admit that the BEEB looked really good and it was quite easy to fall in the trap.
Thanks a lot for this great explanation, another important lesson learned today.
Yves
[QUOTE=“Piping Hot;540735”] That sounded very advanced. Looks like we miss a lot of the good stuff by not being members. I will seriously have to think about it. However, I was already kind of using these 1-2-3 patterns to try and spot were PA are the most relevant and I agree the move down was speculative but you have to admit that the BEEB looked really good and it was quite easy to fall in the trap. Thanks a lot for this great explanation, another important lesson learned today. Yves[/QUOTE]
Thank you for the kind comments! I’m not an FSO member, but I do creep around Johnathon’s website a lot, haha. It’s a one stop shop for just about everything PA you will need to know. And also have spent a tremendous amount of time digesting PA information all over the web, and applying to to my real life trading. I do think it was a trade CT traders could have taken, but I think the strength and quality of the trend was underestimated, and I personally didn’t put a lot of weight into the SR line from the candle highs around 08/12. Just from the fact that I had already written it off as noise anyways.
This is not a setup so I hope it is ok but a general question just to make sure I am actually learning something related to PA
USD/JPY Daily
Trend is obviously up and it has been consolidating for a while and consolidation area is getting smaller and smaller so it is about to break out and this break out in general happens following the trend so chances are that, when it goes out of consolidation, it will go up
Sorry for being such a burden …
Should we only consider trends that have made higher highs higher lows and respectively lower highs and lower lows without exceptions to be on the safe side for a start until we get more experienced ?
I wish we had allot more traders like you, for sure you are NO burden.
No,not until experienced it is always the safer side. Anything other than that is highly speculative and requires a substantial amount of market behaviour knowledge and of course Risk tolerance.
Cheers
There really are no safe and risky trends, price is either trending or it’s not. Trends are consecutive HH and HL or LH and LL. Once that pattern has been broken then the trend is either changing directions or going into consolidation. That is textbook definition of a trend.
I would add that some trends are only 3 swings and some are 8 or more. Obviously the trend that forms more consecutive high and lows have a more entrenched trend. The same principle goes for SR levels, 8 candles bouncing off of a price level is a more entrenched SR than just 2 candles bouncing off of that same level.
I was saying that if you considered the price spike on 08/12 as a HH and HL, then the trend was compromised and was either entering into a period of reversal or ranging.
Thanks guys,
So now that I get the concept a bit more. Can we say that with the method taught here, we can trade when trending, when ranging but better not when consolidating ?
As a rule of thumb, a pending order gets invalidated once the High or low of your setup gets taken out.
In the case of USD/CAD Weekly pin bar, your pending order is invalid once the low of the pin gets breached.
Folks Remember that is a weekly setup, it might take one or two candles to get triggered and many more to reach your TP.
So if you don’t have the nerves or cannot spare your margin on such a possible long trade ,now listen
KEEP YOUR HANDS OF IT!
It is a high probability setup and it might get triggered very soon and it might take an 1 hour candle to run the 100yards.
But nothing is set.
Hope that helps.
Cheers.
Not a burden, you are the one who makes this thread move forward indeed !