trying to work through some of the posts I have missed over the last week. Boy this thread grows quick when your not in here for a few days. I am already 50+ posts behind. A few things have been standing out though…
Traders are moving away from the daily charts and it is hurting them. New traders need to concentrate the vast majority of their trading on the daily charts. The simple reason for this is the daily charts are king. Daily charts are more reliable and profitable. The lower time frame you go, the less information they hold and less reliable they become. A 4hr chart holds 6x less information than what a daily chart does.
Traders need to get back to trading their intraday trades from key daily levels. A lot of the intraday trades I have seen that have been played are from no mans land. The reason we play intraday trades from key daily levels is because no matter how low of time frame chart you go to it ensures that you will always be playing the trade at a key level.
We are all going to make losses. Being a trader entails taking losses. The differences between the pro & amateurs are the pros learn very quickly how to take the losses well. The whole reason we have money management and don’t risk the bank is because we do make losses. A traders job is basically as a professional risk manager. Once you make a loss don’t sit their analysing it for the next 2 days like was done in here with the 4hr EURJPY trade. Whilst I did not personally make that EURJPY trade it was a perfectly fine trade to make. It was at a solid level and a valid price action signal. If you got stopped then move on and make the next trade, don’t sit there over analysing. If you have a winning edge of 60%, then that is part of the 40%. Move on.
I understand what you are saying completely, and I did go a bit to in depth with bringing up the “news”. The FOMC announcements happen only a number of times a year, and all markets react in major, major ways. I was simply sharing this upcoming announcement with everyone because if they were planning on taking a position before the release, they may want to wait until the projections came out and the fervor subsides. I would never post anything about any other “news” coming out, because I am aware that all of that jazz is already factored into price. But, to discount such a major release and not at least be aware of what can potentially happen is dangerous in my opinion. [I](*Gotta throw in an edit here @ 9:41 AM EST. Apologies, I did mention one thing about a Kiwi trade I was in, only because I was on major tilt after trading like a fool…)[/I]. Sorry 'bout that…
I’ve made numerous posts on how important it is to not just read charts and slap signals on them, and the importance behind looking behind the scenes as to what is really happening. 'm not trying to be defensive or anything, but I am going to take it a bit personally when you claim that I don’t grasp what “you do here”. I feel I’ve been learning as much as I can and trying to contribute positively to the growth of this forum. The fact that you put all of this information out there, for free, and take time out of your day to help others is something that truly inspires me. Inspires me to the point where you’ll see I’ve made almost 300 posts in less than a month, trying to help out others. Scratch the first 20 or 30 as I was really learning though- ha. I use you’re dedication to help others, as motivation for myself to play that forward when a new guy/gal comes across on the board. You know how deeply appreciated you are.
“News does not move price”- can’t disagree there. News doesn’t move price- order fulfillment moves price. What moves order fulfillment? Speculation- what move speculation? I don’t care about the news 99% of the time. But, when a major, major economic announcement is being released from a world superpower whose currency is literally the basis of all major valuations across the globe, people better pay attention.
This FOMC talk was prefaced multiple times how little we should all care about the news, and how it is already factored in.
This is the last I’ll speak of this, and I hope you see where I’m coming from. I understand this is your show and you like to run a tight ship, and I want to learn and help others learn. I wish to simply comply with your rules. I wouldn’t mention anything else (and haven’t) except for such a huge announcement like this to put it on others radars- that was my only intention here Jonathan (probably one of the biggest in years in terms of market reaction).
There was another trader who asked a follow up question, to which I posted something along the lines that: the news is already factored into price, and if you want to follow it as a hobby so you can sound smart in front of your friends, then by all means knock yourself out. So, I’m not trying to go against your principles here.
Hey Dudest, saw it pretty much the same.
Actually I was pretty disappointed with that pin. I thought to myself ‘’ I’m watching you all week and that is all you can come up with?’’
So was a No go.
Good on you for making the cut when you thought it necessary!
W.r.t you question: as was mentioned before, proper trends are not the order of the day. That’s why I prefer using the term “swing” ( up-swing, down-swing ) for short-term momentum.
In my understanding, I agree with pretty much with what you’ve said. When price breaks above a tested resistance and the area looks to hold as support, I consider that an up-swing (and vice versa) [ esp if the area holds ].
I wouldn’t say though “regardless of the longer term trend picture”, coz that is part of the PA story…
I just open long position EURJPY (4H)
Reasons:
1-Big pinBar closed on top third +long noise cross support line (Candle open 133.32)
2-PA signal at Swing low
3-Support @ 133.20 / Resistance @ 135.00
4-With trend (Up)
5-My first TP 133.80 TP2 134.50
By Traffic, ENB is mentioning that the “PB” (not a technical PB so be careful here) doesn’t stick out and away from recent candles. What you’ve selected as a PB my friend is actually and Inside Bar (“IB”). Price is maintained within the bullish “mother candle”. This is @ a key level, so a breakout may be in play in either direction. We’ll have to wait and see…Rmbr, that a signal on the 4HR chart must look REALLY good because we are looking at a lower TF. You are going to be trading directly into some overheard downward pressure as well. Can’t say this wont work out for you though…just not an optimal setup. Keep those hands in your pocket and off the trigger! lol.
in here we stay to the 4hr and above for the simple reason is that the higher time frames are more reliable with less false moves. The lower time frames have a lot more noise and false moves.
Really not sure about this one to be brutally honest with you…
A really tiny BUEB at a so so level on a 1hr chart. Would you call this high probability trading?
You are fine to trade the 1hr chart, but when you do it, you still have to make it high probability.
One way to do this is by trading from really key daily levels. This level is sort of just in no mans land.
As you go down the time frames you want to be trading bigger and better price action signals.
There is a definite squeeze of price going on here. In my past experiences, I’ve noticed that as the highs become lower, and the lows become higher, price will typically start to “prefer” either that top trend line or the bottom. When the big guys step in, you may get a signal that a breakout may occur. But, for now I really like trading reversals. Probably just going to watch this because it could get interesting.
