Hey Yves
Good luck with the trade! I am gonna sit out of this one as the NZDJPY doesn’t look like a pin bar to me, more like indecision. Hope I am wrong for you.
BA
Thanks BA,
I’ll go to sleep and hope for a sweet surprise when I wake up tomorrow morning.
No problem Yves, sleep well. I can’t see anything out there on the dailys for me tonight. I am already in the USDCAD from a 4 hour pin bar a little earlier. There was also a little pin formed at the end of the day on the dailys for USDCAD so I am hoping this will be a good sign 
EUR / NZD Discussion
Trend is down, it found support at 1.61079 went up and reached old support (now resistance) at 1.6336 a few days ago
Day 1. Was not able to break this resistance
Day 2. formed a 2 BR
for the next couple of days price stayed in that region unable to break the resistance
today we have a pin bar forming at the same level
Sounds like a nice “kill zone” to go short
Opinions highly appreciated
I took a look at all of the NZD pairs, as these seem to either be trading right into resistance or have very small TP area before nearest major resistance compared to SL size. Unfortunately no new trades for me today.
Hi, I wouldn’t say that the trend is down, but rather in a range as there is no lower high. We are just assuming the pinbar is the lower high.
AUDNZD H4 Pinbar Short
After US close I moved my SL to BE. One step in my trading plan was if price was able to break and hold below the pink SR line after US close then I would move my SL to BE. Whilst my SL is now at BE and more susceptible to being triggered, I would expect the pink line and the candle highs just below my SL to both act as resistance buffers. At this point if price is able to climb all the way back up to where I entered then I want to get out of the trade anyway, so my SL is reflecting that opinion. My trade is about 65% of the way to TP. At TP I close all positions for a 2:1 RR and 3% account increase.
I tend to trade very defensively as some have picked up on already. This is just how I manage open trades and don’t expect others to mirror or copy it. There are a ton of ways to skin the cat, and all can be profitable. My style of trading just fits who I am. One of my favorite quotes is from Warren Buffett - “Rule No. 1: Never lose money. Rule No. 2: Never forget Rule No. 1.”
Yes, but the risk-reward thing is a bit of a myth, it’s a concept tied with your accuracy rate, so as long as you have a high accuracy rate you can have a low RRR to be profitable, and the other way around, with a low accuracy rate you’ll need a much higher RRR to be profitable.
I’m not sure what the “risk reward thing” is. RR itself is a mathematical calculation, but I think by “thing” you are talking about a certain requirement for trades. While I don’t sign up for the 2:1 requirement, I think everyone has a certain risk to reward limit(whether you realize it or not). If a trade presents itself and has a 500 pip stop and a 10 pip reward(50:1 RR), nobody is going to realistically take that trade. Statistically you would have to have a 98% win rate to break even if you continued to take trades with a 50:1. Some peoples choose to use RR and others not, but regardless it is a mathematical principle always at work. No matter what, every trade has a RR tied to it. Some traders look at their RR to figure out their viability as a trader, others figure out their viability differently. To me it’s like using Fahrenheit or Celsius to measure temperature. As they are all different methods of math to come up with your answer.
If you give me your yearly trading statement I can take your P/L, calculate your RR, and tell you exactly at what win rate % you will need to break even. Assuming you have similar batting averages each year. This is how “I” look at my viability as a trader, but by no means does anyone else have to do this. This method has a very high win ratio, so you can pull off very low RR trades. I’m not here to advocate a certain math method to calculate your success as a trader, it’s just what I use.
[QUOTE=“gmatav;544974”] Yes, but the risk-reward thing is a bit of a myth, it’s a concept tied with your accuracy rate, so as long as you have a high accuracy rate you can have a low RRR to be profitable, and the other way around, with a low accuracy rate you’ll need a much higher RRR to be profitable.[/QUOTE]
In your defense an argument could be made that the RR of an individual trade isn’t as important as some make it, which I can agree with that. Looking at it from a top down perspective, most people will agree trading this method will give you a 60-80 percent win rate. With an 80% win rate, your minimum yearly RR before you break below even is 4:1. Obviously you can take one single trade that is 4:1 RR, and achieve a much better yearly RR. But by putting a minimum on my trades, I can get at least get a control in what I’m shooting for at the end of the year. But all of the individual trades RR make up that end of year RR.
I bat about 50% win rate, and my RR is around 1:3 this year, if you do the math you can see in making a very healthy profit so far this year.
Hi Krugman, the fact that you explicitly mention 50% win rate is interesting. Are you not merely implying here that behind all your fancy maths and statistics, you basically flip a coin to take a trade?
[QUOTE=“wm247;545003”] Hi Krugman, the fact that you explicitly mention 50% win rate is interesting. Are you not merely implying here that behind all your fancy maths and statistics, you basically flip a coin to take a trade?[/QUOTE]
wm, your statement just proved the importance of tracking your overall RR. Would you say their is a difference between someone who has a 50% win rate and an overall RR of 1:1, and another with 50% but a 1:10 RR? I can answer that, the one with a 1:10 is MUCH more impressive, and 10 times more wealthy than the other. Your win rate only makes sense in the context of how much your profit is over your loss. I follow a PA trader who claims to have a 15% win rate, but his average RR is 1:10 to 1:20. It’s like finding the length of 1 side of triangle, you need to know the length of the other 2 sides to complete the equation, knowing just 1 side doesn’t complete it. In the same way knowing just win rate or just RR doesn’t complete the equation. But both values together tell the whole story.
What if I told you I had a win rate if 95%. Would you be impressed? Probably. What if I told you my take profit was 1 pip every trade. Now how impressive is my win rate. You can call the math fancy, but it doesn’t change the fact that this is the math. Not just the win rate and not just the RR, but both together. A majority of traders use these numbers, so I can’t believe it’s difficult for someone to do.
I see what you mean. The analogy of flipping coin is like this:
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[B]A fair coin[/B], 50% win rate. I play against Krugman. However, the rule is that I pay Krugman 1 dollar if it shows head, and Krugman pays me 3 dollars if it shows tail. In the long run, I will be much wealthier than Krugman. Wanna bet?
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[B]A not-so-fair coin[/B], 95% rate of head vs 5% rate of tail. The rule is, I pay Krugman 1 dollar if it shows head. But Krugman pays me 100 dollars if it shows tail. At a brief glimpse, people will say that Krugman is ripping me off, but we both know the truth. In the long run, I will still be much wealthier than Krugman. Wanna bet?
Interesting discussion as usual, Krugman. RRR is indeed useless if you do not think it altogether with your win rate.
Haha, your number 2 example is getting closer to the dynamic of trading. Maybe a better comparison is you can flip a coin, if you guess it correctly you can flip it again to double your money, although if it fails you lose the money from both flips and is marked as a loss. While you are winning, you can keep flipping to double your money or take your profit.
There are professional traders out there who keep flipping the coin, 5 or 10 times over, and while statistically they will lose a lot, their few winners are huge and well make up for all of the losers(thus justifying a very small win rate %). I’m not advocating this by any means, just using it as a real life example. And I completely agree with the last statement you made, you very well summed up my previous post.
Now I just flipped heads, so where my 1 dollar… cheater 
Okay, just a question, am I the only one who has accidentally closed a winning trade instead of moving StopLoss ? My EurJpy order triggered and I was going to move my StopLoss and I accidentally closed the order! A win but when I see that it hits my TakeProfit tomorrow I’m going to be a little sad.
My recent trade with EURCAD. got stopped out this morning. =)
any comments or mistakes that i may have committed? much appreciated!
entry: 1.39118
TS: 1.40188
Sorry to hear that EvilCrust. You are definitely not the only one that stuff has happened to! I have accidently removed stop losses, woke up the next morning and found price moved way past my stop-loss. Just recently my software glitched while I was manually closing a trade, and it actually started opening more lots! I had to restart the software, close all of the positions and was out the spread cost on all of the extra lots. Mistakes like that happen less as time goes on, I consider it part of the business expense, haha.
I’m going to guess you played the bearish pinbar. I’ve argued in previous posts that the trend is strongly up, and the higher-high and higher-low pattern has not been broken yet. That would mean any shorts right now would be counter trend trades. In a counter trend trade the signal usually need to be very large(larger than whats acceptable in a range or with the trend). So I would say the bias of the market is still long and you went short against a whole wave of traders that are taking long positions on that pair.
Hey Krugman! You’ve officially become a Senior Member! Congratz, we are all looking forward to reading more of your contribution here in the future and beyond.