Forex Price Action

Nice post Pips.

Firstly I don’t think there is anything wrong with counter trend trading provided you have some experience these trades can be very rewarding.

I’ll be honest I did take that trade and had a loser, oh well. I liked the level, I like the PA signal and I thought price was due a rotation back. Sometimes loses happen.

I have got back on the EURO by playing the BEBB on the EUR/GBP with the trend. I haven’t had a chance to check the last couple of pages of this thread but I am assuming it has been discussed.

But you are definitely right in that if you are relatively new to this methodology then ALWAYS stick with the trend. In fact a a general rule to anyone new reading this thread I would stick to trading with the trend for at least 12 months. You will have plenty of chances to trade and your account will grow at the same time.

For anyone wanting to practice their counter trend trading simply set up a demo account specifically for counter trend trades and if you are consistently profitable over a 6 month period or longer then you can probably start to integrate it into your real account. Even if you are ‘live’ you can still use Demo accounts to help tweak your trading or try out any new theories/techniques you have about the market.

Here was some nice daily trades this week that both formed with the trend and at pullbacks.

GBPCHF


EURGBP


If you wait nice trades with the trend do come and you don’t have to trade counter trend at all.

Safe trading,

Johnathon

Outcome: The pin got wolfed down by the bearish momentum and price went lower.
My entry was 10pips above pinbar high, so never got entered


Thanks for honest comments machal!
At that point in the H4, i was moving to capitalize on the upmove just before the pullback that produced the pin
Also wasn’t looking for it to go too far; TP1: 79.80 (hit), TP2: 80.00. 2nd position is now at BE+2pips


Not sure what “market’s ebbs and flows” you are referring to. Price only has two directions to go. Increase from the previous price, decrease from the previous price, or the same price. The human behavior is the decision to buy or sell. Subjectivity that is not consistently applied is difficult to measure, and much more difficult to scale. There’s no real accountability; which makes it more difficult to analyze honestly and improve. However, it can still be “good enough” to profit, and I guess for an individual trader who knows their system very well, this is ok…“it works for me” and I suppose I cannot argue with that.

Counter-trend system is very effective mainly because it forces the person implementing it to face the core fear of trading directly. Buying when the market decreases and selling when the market is rising seems counterproductive at first. But once you see it in action, it’s much easier to accept drawdowns instead of running scared from them.

Perhaps you will be presently surprised with what will be released in the coming week or so.

I am confused by this one…:30:

Perhaps you could make this for PA community?

The problem I see is that the signals and where profit and stops are placed are not objective, and hence make it near on impossible to make what we do into an indicator.

How do you tell an indicator that the support or resistance is strong enough to trade from? Or when trading with the trend price has reached enough of a pull-back or it’s a strong enough trend?

I understand you could make an indicator to fit the just the signals ie it could tell you a pin bar criterea has been met etc but it is all the other confluences that makes a trade either playable or not that an indicator does not show.

Not all trade signals are created equal and not all trade signals are good to trade. Once a trader has traded for long enough and experienced enough setups they bein to know their method inside out.

Lastly why the need for an indicator? Why can’t you just check your charts once or twice a day to place and manage trades? if you are going to be doing that with your indicator anyway why the need at all?

Safe trading and all the success,

Johnathon

What about now short usd/jpy on h4. Someone can attach chart because i’m on the phone now.

Cheers.

Just a little question, when you get one of your trading setups, like the one you showed in the GBP/CHF, you enter the trade after BEB appears, or you go to another timeframe so you can make a better entry?

Thanks

Hello LFC,

We only ever trade using the one time frame. If we see a trade on the daily we use the daily to plot targets and stops etc

There is zero reason to go down time frames. All that will do is make you see support or resistance that is not important and scare you out of a trade. You will also put on trades on smaller time charts you shouldn’t be and make the stop to small and not allow the market the room it needs.

Keep it simple. See a trade = Place a trade.

Johnathon

ForexSchoolOnline, did you see the mail i sent you?

Can’t agree more.

Nope. Where did you send it?

To email me see details in profile.

Johnathon

Nice point sensei, coz the point is to learn to read price on a clean chart without encumberment

Cheers

I actually have something that may be released soon.

The problem I see is that the signals and where profit and stops are placed are not objective, and hence make it near on impossible to make what we do into an indicator.

[B]This is exactly my point.[/B]:60: And it goes beyond just an indicator, but the whole aspect of defining a trading system; see below.

How do you tell an indicator that the support or resistance is strong enough to trade from? Or when trading with the trend price has reached enough of a pull-back or it’s a strong enough trend?

I understand you could make an indicator to fit the just the signals ie it could tell you a pin bar criterea has been met etc but it is all the other confluences that makes a trade either playable or not that an indicator does not show.

Not all trade signals are created equal and not all trade signals are good to trade. Once a trader has traded for long enough and experienced enough setups they bein to know their method inside out.

In order to define/duplicate a method, system, etc, there must be core components of that method that are clearly defined. You cannot toss a bunch of engine parts together and then call the pile a car; the parts have to be put in a certain sequence so that it can run properly every time. A trading system works exactly the same way. There has to be step-by-step method of signal detection, entry, and exit. If there are no exact steps, how exactly do you trade it? How can you teach it to someone else?

There may be certain parameters that can be adjusted (subjective), but each adjustment has a justification that can be explained. It doesn’t have to be one indicator, but could be a bunch of mini-indicators, or “if-then” statements, each specifying what to do if a certain market condition occurs. Just like a car has different gauges to tell you what’s going on in and around the car, the indicators just keep an eye on the different market conditions your looking for. And when a condition, or series of conditions have been met, you get an alert, or can provide additional instruction.

Lastly why the need for an indicator? Why can’t you just check your charts once or twice a day to place and manage trades? if you are going to be doing that with your indicator anyway why the need at all?

Safe trading and all the success,

Johnathon

The indicator/script/ea simplifies this process of entry and/or exit detection, so you can focus on managing the overall process. Sure you could study charts all day long if that is your personal passion. But especially when the rules are so subjective, this would be very tricky to accomplish in just a few minutes every day. And trade management would be very difficult to manage.

What a load of crap!

If you want to EA or whatever then go do it, stop wasting our time with your rubbish.

Ok great. There just a few things you haven’t answered from my previous message. Please firstly forgive me if I am wrong as you clearly have a lot more knowledge of MT4 scripts and EA’s.

As I said in the previous message the key to placing good Price Action trades is building confluence around a trade. Basically if someone was to enter every pin or every engulfing bar they would be flogged and repeatedly. The trader however that trades with sold confluence such as trend and S/R will do far better.

How do we get an indicator to tell us that price is rejecting a good enough S/R area to place a trade? or that it is trading within a trend? How do we get an indicator to tell us price has pulled back a decent amount?

I understand you can make an indicator tell you if some form of PA has formed but as I said this is near on useless.

Seeing if there is a trade should literally take now longer than 30 mins per day. This is enough to check each daily close and then 2 x 4 hour close candles that close during the UK/US sessions.

If you are going to make a whole heap of mini indicators can I again ask what on earth is the point? When I can do the same but more efficiently with my own brain?

I have seen many try to reinvent the wheel and each time I wonder why… when the wheel was invented such a long time ago. Nothing we are doing here is new! but it works. Why the need to change anything? Or try and make something?

Lastly as you said yes stops and trade management do change from trade to trade. The reason you can’t input this into an indicator is because sometimes the stop is based on what price has done around the PA signal. For example instead of placing the stop above or below the pin bar you may use relevant support and resistance.

As I said in the previous message I hope you find what you are looking for and create a whole heap of mini indicators that alerts you to what everyone else can already see.

Safe trading and all the success,

Johnathon

@ForexSchoolOnline

I am new in the world of PA… I will post some of my charts to compare and get helped… My question is
how many pips do you make approximately in a week/month?

@fx7days
How many pips did you make this month and which pairs do you trade?

An indicator can be programmed to monitor several conditions simultaneously. It could monitor your pin bar, S/R area, watch for trend, or whatever specific criteria you are looking for. You only need to define clearly what each of the conditions are in a logical format.

Seeing if there is a trade should literally take now longer than 30 mins per day. This is enough to check each daily close and then 2 x 4 hour close candles that close during the UK/US sessions.

If you are going to make a whole heap of mini indicators can I again ask what on earth is the point? When I can do the same but more efficiently with my own brain?

I have seen many try to reinvent the wheel and each time I wonder why… when the wheel was invented such a long time ago. Nothing we are doing here is new! but it works. Why the need to change anything? Or try and make something?

That’s magnificent if you can view several charts with different currency pairs, go step-by-step through all of your rules to qualify your entry, and place one or multiple entries. Then come back in xx hours and get out with profit. And you do this all without clear entry exit rules for each condition you are looking for in the market. I admire what you are trying to do, except it is confusing without any type of consistency and specific rules.

Lastly as you said yes stops and trade management do change from trade to trade. The reason you can’t input this into an indicator is because sometimes the stop is based on what price has done around the PA signal. For example instead of placing the stop above or below the pin bar you may use relevant support and resistance.

As I said in the previous message I hope you find what you are looking for and create a whole heap of mini indicators that alerts you to what everyone else can already see.

Safe trading and all the success,

Johnathon

As I said before, you can create several conditional statements to cover each possible “what if” that your trading plan entails. For example, “if price has done ‘x’ around PA signal, place stop above/below pin bar level. If price has done ‘y’ around PA signal, then use detected support/resistance level.” You don’t have to be a programmer; this requires clear rules of engagement. There are core aspects of a trading system that remain the same: entry detection, actual entry(ies), and actual exit(s).

This has nothing to do with making EA or indicator. The core point is about having a logical trading format/plan/etc. Once you have that, the next step when you are ready is to make EA or indicator. I was actually interested in what Johnathon may have developed, but find it extremely difficult to follow with no clear rules.

Hello,

thanks heaps for your reply. I am beginning to think that this thread or method of trading possibly just isn’t for you. As we know we are all different and we all see things differently. Some people are far better suited to different methods and some are suited to PA.

By the sounds of it you are after rules that fit every thing the market does. The best way to do this is probably find an indicator, black box system or signal service that just gives buy and sell signals and then informs you have to manage the trade etc.

I am very sorry we can not give you what you seek and you are more than welcome to stay in here and contribute but I feel that we are on very different wavelengths and by that we are getting way way of track here and into water I don’t wish to go in this Price Action thread.

I am looking to now get this thread back on PA discussion and will post further PA comments very shortly.

I wish you all the best in your trading endeavours,

Johnathon