Any comments?
.
Just too small for me to CT trade it.
This bar isnt a BUEB. Because it isnt engulfing previous bar. Previous bar’s high: 1329.58 and it’s high 1327.29
Hallo afdx,
How about a 2BR? 
[QUOTE=“dudest;554281”]Any comments? <img src=“301 Moved Permanently”/> .[/QUOTE]
It sits straight into resistance, apologize can’t post the chart at this time
Hello dudest. Firstly thanks to you for your valuable writings in this thread. After ı thought you mean BUEB so ı wrote message. You are right with 2BR and it is on support line.
Questioning is part of our human consciousness and intelligence, and I wanted to have a go at this (from how I see it). So at the risk of being labelled <a something>, here goes everything 
The human mind seeks to understand/logicize/attach a structure to daily life experience. In our context, we seek to understand the workings of the forex market, in order to extract a profit [ and to alter our psychology+thinking in order to extract that profit on a regular basis ].
What is a chart? ( or what is shown on a chart? ) ==> simply, the actions of traders ALL OVER THE WORLD (actions that cause orders to be consumed or removed, resulting in price movement ). Since the chart is a picture of human actions, it will by definition show the traits of the humans whose actions it is graphing. The following becomes apparent after experiencing naked charts: Markets are RECURRENT ==> And no surprise here, as humans are ‘recurrent’ (habitual).
Another human trait that works to our advantage is: we humans are not always rational, and this leads to market INEFFICIENCIES. This is also related to RECURRENCE.
In a perfect market, ALL traders would decide rationally and act immediately. The price curves in such a market would follow a Gauss Normal distribution (bell-shaped curve). Those price curves would not contain any information for predicting a future price move. Fortunately for trading strategies, real markets are far from this theoretical ideal. Any such inefficiency allows a strategy to predict a small part of the price curve with some degree of accuracy. Developing a trade strategy begins with the inefficiency that one wants to exploit. This can be done by eye-balling through price curves (to find patterns or other hints that precede certain price movements) or using computer algorithms/machines/automatons.
Which brings us to S/R.
FACT: a human recurrent behaviour (leading to a particular market inefficiency) is that: we humans attach significance to numbers in our lives. Why does a week have 7 days?, and an year have 12 months? Why is ‘totality’ referred to as ‘100%’? Because we attach significance to numbers/levels.
The principal participants in the forex market are NOT speculators (like us). The lion’s share of Forex transactions are done as a function of international business ( by governments & banks ). Added to that is the reality that for every buyer there MUST be a seller or no transaction can occur. When an order is too large to transact at a current price, the price moves to the point where open interest is abundant enough to cover it.
These areas of open interest are SUPPLY/DEMAND ZONES, otherwise known as resistance/support zones. On a chart, they are areas where price stalls or turns (where orders are accumulated/distributed in real life). That basically is to show that S/R is not simply our minds trying to logicize something; it is a pictorial representaiton of a real-life reality.
Example: the SNB has set a ceiling on the value of the CHF relative to the EURO [ in terms of the pair, a floor of EURCHF = 1.2 ]. That value on the chart is an S/R because it is an AREA OF INTEREST to an entity that can affect price
Being interested in values/levels/numbers and attaching SIGNIFICANCE to those numbers [ in this case numbers = prices ] creates AREAS where prices can STALL / REVERSE. Just like in real life: there are prices for goods which if they hit certain levels we will either buy with a frenzy, or keep off (driving the prices down). Plot these on a chart, and the key STALL/REVERSAL areas are S/R zones. So it’s not in the mind [ belaboured of necessity ].
Lastly: about drawing a random S/R on a monthly chart and checking on lower TFs
Drawing on monthly (high timeframe) and looking at lower timeframes for price bounces: NO SURPRISE THERE, because high TF has highly compressed data likely to be more important on lower TFs.
Try the reverse: draw a random S/R on 15min chart, and check on Monthly… No surprise if it means NOTHING on Monthly TF (too short a view).
Relevance of S/R’s
-> Are all S/R’s relevant (key)? No.
-> Do S/R’s hold every time? No.
-> Do key S/R’s reliably show areas of interest for price over time? Yes
-> Can knowledge of price interest areas create a market inefficiency enough to give us an edge (esp when coupled with price patterns)? YES
That’s a wrap. Cheers!
References to individuals whose work has informed my above viewpoint during my learning of forex:
a) Johnathon [ forexschoolonline.com ]
b) Darkstar [ Darkstar’s Profile @ Forex Factory ]
c) Dali [ http://forums.babypips.com/members/dali.html ]
d) JCL [ zorro-trader.com ]
e) Scott Percival [ Market-geeks.com ]
2 Likes
Hallo,
In addition to the core method (trading reversals with/against the trend) taught here, Johnathon also teaches how to use PA to trade continuations and breakouts.
The use of additional MT5 timeframes ( e.g H6/H8/H12 ) provides alot more setups that what we’re used to with H4/D1/W1 alone.
PS: thought this was necessary to state [ not specifically to you buster, but as a general truth ].
Some join this thread ( and FSO ) hoping to have a way paved with a direct route to $$, and get frustrated.
As (esp those who join FSO with this mindset) quickly learn, we all have to LEARN TO FISH for OURSELVES (even with simply outlined rules) and that takes a creation of co-ordination paths between our minds/eyes/hands/subsconcious ( just like learning to ride a bike or drive a car; it’s straightforward (theoretically) how to do it, but only sinks in with constant APPLICATION (which sometimes involves un-learning what we already know).
I know what it feels like to be very short of money and the need to make money fast in forex (esp after previous failures), so I’m not just spouting ‘theory’. But I’ve had to learn the hard way that mental attitude and thinking have to change for profitability to check in; that’s just how it is. When that happens, frequency of setups is no longer an issue. We are our own barrier to success.
Cheers.
.
You know, dudest, you are one of the very few people in this thread that have truly earned my respect. And you really earn the title ‘legendary dudest’ and ‘our guardian angel’. Respect.
I still have a long way to go to accomplish that same level of you to explain something like that so eloquently. You make it sound so easy. 
PS: You know you REALLY have crossed the line when you successfully make this so sweet, gentle, bubbly, mellow, polite, peaceful, all-so-ever-nice-guy dudest snaps. I only saw it once after reading all this 14000-ish pages, and I can say it here, that I’m praying day and night that I will never be on the wrong side when dudest once again snaps…
this is the kind of post I would have appreciated in reply to my post so thanks for that dudest a succinct and intelligent reply someone not stating the obvious.This during a period of uncertainty which all traders go through not comments that Id had the temerity to question the master even going to the extreme of reporting me for saying something they dident like.However onwards and upwards knowing who to listen to and who not to. cheers mate.
Hi Dudest,
Very precious posts! The day I realized the above statement was the day I switched my mindset.
(You can only see as far as you want to see)
Cheers Buddy!
short at swing low is not a good idea.
Hello, as a complete beginner at PA I’m finding this thread fascinating - still trying to get through it all to improve my understanding. I’ve just been stopped out of a trade on practice, and would like to know if it was my faulty analysis (likely) or just luck that caused the trade to fail. On the daily NZDUSD chart I saw a BUEB form at a new level of SR I had drawn in. I took this as a bullish sign so went long (in the direction of the trend) just after US Market close. My stop was just below the SR level I have marked on the chart.
What do you guys think?
Peeps! The next wave is upon us
AUDs, NZDs, JPYs, Indices => PA formations in progress [ 11.25 hours to go for D1 ]
NY-close today should be interesting
H4/H6/H8/H12 today are also looking promising
Cheers!
Hallo Tweedster!, and a hearty welcome to the thread :)!
Good on you for posting up, keep doing it and it’ll help you no end!
I can’t see the level on your chart but from your highlights, I’m hoping below is showing what you are saying:
#1.
Your S/R is OK [ i.e wasn’t wrong to have it there. Mine was abit lower near 84.00 RN ]
#2.
Correct: The candle you have highlighted is a Bullish Engulfing Bar (BUEB).
As the name indicates, an ENGULFING bar must FULLY ENGULF the candle before it.
More here: Bullish and Bearish Engulfing Bars Introduction
#3.
Despite the candle being an engulfing bar, going long would still not have been a good play.
Yes, the trend would have been your friend, but you would have been BUYING HIGH instead of BUYING LOW (this is KEY!)
In real life, you buy things when they are cheap, not when they are expensive. And you sell things when their price is high, not when their price is low. In short, you BUY LOW and SELL HIGH.
A BUEB is a reversal signal to go long, and therefore must be taken when price is LOW (not at a high).
Example:
If this does not make sense, please holla back and we will explain further, as this concept of BUY at SWING LOW and SELL at SWING HIGH is KEY.
#4.
Lastly, when we spot a valid setup, we do not enter right away ( i.e, we do not press BUY or SELL ). We set a pending order ( e.g for a BUEB, we set a BUYSTOP order above the high of the BUEB ) so that price can confirm the setup by breaking its high [ or in the case of a bearish signal, by breaking its low ]. So in your case you would have never been in the trade, as price did not break the high of the BUEB.
Incase of need for further clarification, holla back right away!
Cheers
What a day! Price on Nzd/Jpy broke through the top and quickly crawled back to fake the market.
You cannot fake the market like that without a trace. The trace was a 4hr pin bar that poked through the resistance and closed below.
That sort of price action setup is what we are looking for.
I Wish all the best.
Cheers
Bang on! We need these to be at swing highs and not at swing lows like this was.
Yep some huge moves and break outs occurring all over the place.
Some possible nice setups around for the dailies tomorrow as well. One is the 2 bar on the CHFJPY which will be a really nice 2 day false break pin bar. Long time to the daily close, but I will post this now because I am not around at the NY close in here as too busy. I will post the 2 bar daily chart below. Obviously this would have to close bearish for it to be a nice setup.
Hey guys im back!
Went to Bali and China for holiday during the past 1 month and now finally back! Hello ALL!
I really enjoyed myself and glad to be back to join you guys again!
Just noticed one thing during my trip. I cannot focus in forex while on holiday so the Holiday and earn money at the same time scenario doesnt work for me lol.
ANW,
There’s one more good news to share with everyone – I’ve FINALLY Sign up as a member of FSO ( have not yet receive any email though )! TADAAAA! Congrats me pls
Hopefully i can access by tonight and catch up the fast growing post you guys are spamming!
Lastly!
There’s so many Potential A+ setups tonight!! Woohoo! Have fun guys, talk to ya guys soon!
Jack!