Hey ddi,
Yes.
[ Though I prefer to call it an up-swing to differentiate it from an established trend ]
On 4th Feb, price broke BRN 0.8000, and the zone flipped from resistance from support.
After the break, price is ranging in between the levels, and at the support end of the range, a pin was formed that rejected and closed above BRN 0.8000.
So for me, this is primarily a range trade.
Cheers
I also had a pending order that never got hit as placed a SL a few pips below the low of the PIN as wanted to get some confirmation it was going to go in my favour, it didnāt obviously. Upon reflection of the trade, which is my second since starting this thread last week, I think the pin formed in no-manās land and not at a solid swing point and was trading down into some support on the 38.2 fib line from the big move up. but iām new to this so be good to see what others think.
Thanks a lot dudest! clear as usual! shame this trade is not working as we wouldāve liked to.
Cheers man
Hey Dudest, I am new here. It had been a pleasure to go through this thread. Very thorough and helpful!
I have attached a sceen shot of AUDCAD weekly setup. Can you please advise on the upcoming direction/trend?
Cheers,
Farhan
I followed Gbp/Jpy for a whole week, didnāt die but also didnāt survive.
I have seen neutrals before, but these crazy Pins are sucking.
Overall trend is bullish and pair sits on Resistance level.
Checkout the weekly and daily below. Where is it heading, I will appreciate any comments.
I think Aud/Cad is a huge double bottom pattern. If true, this pair will continue up.
gbp/cad close with a nice big rejecting pinbar, itās a counter trend setup . Iām gonna to put stop above the resistance
Would this be considered good?
Overall trend is down
Good wick that spiked higher than the others
Closed at lower third and
at resistance and fibo 50.
My only small concern is that it is making higher lowsā¦do you guys care for that?
zenz,
in reference to price making higher lows, yes it is in the short term. But looking at your chart overall, price is actually making lower highs, if you can see what i mean.
Also, if youāre looking for a reason to go short, you definitely have one with the bearish engulfing pattern but here is a chart to give some insight.
The chart below is the weekly usd/jpy. as you can see, in conjunction with the rsi, there is negative divergence on a large scale. Also, on a side note by my analysis, in the Elliott Wave Theory, we are in the corrective phase of the huge rise up from the low in december 2011 and the high of december 2013. My thoughts are to look for a good price action signal off of a resistance level as you have done, or as price hits a Fibonacci level of the first move down from the high of december. hereās my chart.
zenz,
here is the fibonacci retracement of that move i talked about in my previous post. I use elliot wave theory a lot, and though price is at the 38.2%, i think price should move up between the 61.8 and 50 percent levels, somewhere around 103.37 level. hereās the chart. hope it helps.
Honestly, I have been looking at this for a few days now. Iād probably short around 103.37 if a price action signal appears and place my stop at the top of the high that was created, with a 1:2 risk to reward. According to the elliot wave theory, price is likely, not for sure, but likely to end itās bearish rally around 98.50 or so. So maybe thatāll be my target giving me a higher R:R. But this is just my analysis, and Iām not an expert at this, so hopefully it helps.
Another thing, is this trade setup is a very long term one. This is a weekly analysis while looking for an entry on the daily.
if you are looking for a trade to go long, you would probably wait for price to move up, retrace to the 32.8% and buy with a tp at the 61.8%, but then again, you could use a fibonacci retracement on a shorter time frame.
Cheers,
AK
Itās all good! The EURAUD and AUDCHF pins are still in play ( not yet invalidated ); may end up playing out to our advantageā¦
Cheers 
Hi fshah,
Iām sure Dudest will reply once he is available, till then I hope you donāt mind me giving an oppinion.
Aud/Cad Weekly Market Structure;
Is in an obvious range market. Price on the weekly has clearly not managed to make any new highs. Moreover price failed to close above the VBRN which is key here. It has rather rejected that level with a long wick.
Aud/Cad Daily Market Structure;
Price on the daily chart has clearly made new highs. However it looks quite clamped lately and with a long and obvious pinbar on Friday a rejection of recent highs is imminent.
Recap, the weekly doesnāt show signs of a confident breakout. On the other hand the daily has produced a false break pinbar. Which in my oppinion if confirmed could be the very start of a new move lower.
Hope that helps.
Cheers
Hello Farhan, and welcome!
IMO,
This may indicate a possible move lower in coming days/weeks
The other CADs have also thrown up D1 pins ( some better than others ). Now to choose one to trade with full single-trade risk or a couple to trade with split risk.
Cheers
.
Hey Kasravi, thanks man! Your input was much appreciated :).
Hey Dudest,
Thanks a lot for your warm welcome and the valuable feedback! I take your tip for the ārisk splittingā and will take smaller lots of multiple CAD pairs (with best pin bar setups only) instead on just one. I hope this is what you meant :).
Also, can you please advise: In practice, will it be better to take trade right away after seeing a setup like this or should we apply buy stops and sell stops for the purpose?
Cheers mate,
Farhan
Heya Wangzhe,
not a BUEB, but could have been a bullish 2 bar? For a BUEB it need to fully engulf the previous candles or in other words have a lower low and higher high. This includes both the wicks & candles.
Johnathon
Nice trading! :35:
It is finally great to have you back and congrats on your great news!! :60:
