Thanks for your comments.
How many lower highs in a sequence signal that a reversal is underway?
Clearly I was thinking that this was a pull back on the stronger down trend, and you are thinking that it will be a continuation of this pull back… If you are right, then I’m defiantly would have been on the wrong side of this trade…
hi akhor…
let me just clarify…I AM NO EXPERT AND my opinion is only an opinion.
right i have looked at the pair …and i dont know if it is reversing…i would more go to there being a retracement on the downward trend that you discussed earlier.
the only thing i can think that will confirm this is future price action…if anyone says its a reversal i would be dubious…
all i meant is that short term the trend is up.
next point…i just had a look at the 4 hour chart.
the story i see…is it gapped above the resistance line a couple of weeks ago …then it retraced…
then it bounced off a support line and proceded back up to test the resistance line…leaving a decent pin.
so it is now looking good for a short…
and in direction of main trend.
now on daily.
there was a gap at beginning of week and price then dropped from resistance line …all the way down to support line.
next day it went from support all the way back up to resistance line…sometimes this could be viewed as a 2 bar reversal set up.
but today it seems to be falling from resistance line and currently headed a little way to support again
if i had to choose what to do …and you had a gun to my head…
i would say a short is more probable…if you have to get in the market.
anyway hope it helps.
edt.
the good thing is …that resistance line is looking quite solid …for NOW.
the other thing is yesterdays candle has formed an INSIDE BAR on the daily…so who know s what price will do.
it may break to the upside and smash through the resistance…or it may go all the way down to support…and maybe break out through the support…
i have no idea whatsoever on that one.
Hehehe 
Sorry guys for the confusion
usdchf 4h
what do u guys think about this trade?
general trend is up
there was a Pin bar yesterday
and the day before where both of them acted as support
Hi, this is how i see this chart and for me it’s not worth. Actual momentum is down and strong resistance to break… not convincing me.
Friends i talked about this pair{USDCAD} earlier…now price has pulled back…it made an inside bar and the next bar was bearish…so it convinced me to get short here…any comments?
thanks
Heya,
this is super dooper small and more importantly formed from a low and not a high like we need. Because you are trading from a low you it means you are now trading right into support and it has no space to move.
You talk of a pullback but one bullish bar does not constitute a pullback. To go short using a reversal signal such as the bearish Engulfing Bar we need price to pullback higher and then to form. This way we are picking price to reverse.
Momentum on 4hr chart recently has been down so this is definitely in your favour for this trade.
Would you say from your point of view this is an A+ trade? Please answer this from your point of view. Forget what I said. I am interested to see if you think this is a great trade to make?
From my point of view there is a definite chance of you making a winning trade on this setup due to the US dollar being so week of late, but this is not a setup you want to get into the habit of trading.
Stick to the big obvious signals from very clear levels and from the correct swing points.
Very lastly don’t do anything or cancel anything due to what I said. In the medium term I actually think this will continue lower. I am just not sure if it will continue lower from this trade or not. For me there is not a big edge here telling me that price will definitely move lower, if that make sense?
Good luck and hope it continues lower for you!
Johnathon
My thoughts:
EDIT: have just seen Johnathon’s post above, much better explains it than mine.
Cheers
very kind words from you Johnathon to dispel the myth about price action i was bearing in my mind…actually my mind is messes up using various kinds of methods to make success in the currency market… my earlier habit was trading every now and then…when i began to read about this price action forum i started thinking in a new way…trading less but trading the obvious with high probability of win…but my previous habit (over trade) collided with my thought…so when i saw this break up i was eagerly waiting to get short there…there was no big point in my mind to take this trade…i saw that price has not pulled back properly…but i thought it would be better than nothing! to say the truth i was skeptical about the probability of winning in this trade…but you know it is my earlier habit that pursued me to take this…i am very grateful to you that you have clarified this trade with your experienced mind…i have marked your words in my mind…hope they will help me a great deal in future to choose a proper trade…
Thank you very much!
Thank you for your analysis my friend…i think i have a long way to go with price action…you guys are fabulous…hope there will be something amazing in my trade in future if i remain a keen learner of price action
Hello,
well this is moving lower so if you do have this trade there is hope for it to work out. If the support that you opened your trade right into can break then you may just be on a nice winner.
In saying that opening trades that have not pulled back and are trading directly into support or resistance will not give you a good win/loss ratio over time. This is why I felt it necessary to make my comments.
Let me just say: Unless you change your thinking around what you have said above you will be confined to all the other traders that lose money.
Making trades for the sake of trading or because “It was better than nothing” is what 95% of traders do.
It is up to you!
safe trading,
Johnathon
And my eager question to Johnathon…if it was you to take this trade what would you think to this? what would have been your set up to this particular trade?would you take this or reject this? how to play a break out properly?
Hope you will cast off me of confusion i am having in my mind
Thanks
Sorry I am lost.
What trade? If I was to take what trade?
I was talking about my USDCAD short position…everything is clear now…price is testing its previous support in USDCAD…there is a saying in our local “Ustad (master) plays in the last night!” you were truly correct!..this trade seems a good lesson for me
Yes below is what happens when we open trades into support.
We live and learn!
As for your other question it was actually Dudest who posted the area he would like to short from. And you will notice price has not yet got close to the area he highlighted for short entries, so there is nothing to look at yet.
Johnathon
Hey everyone,
Just wanted to drop a note in here to let you know what a great thread you have going. Spent the last week reading the whole thing! I was patiently waiting to get to the end before posting, and I’m glad it didn’t grow too fast
Jonathon, Love your thorough explanation, articles, charts… everything. I still have to catch up on some of the videos and articles.
bhops, same to you, great information.
Finally, dudest, just wanted to let you know I think I learned most of all from the responses to all of your questions, and your great charts. As an observer I was able to clearly see you get better and better at this, simply amazing!
Thank you guys, and everyone else participating in this thread, I will continue to follow and learn! I am seriously considering joining Jonathon’s class.
Rob
Hello Everyone,
Looks like almost all the Major charts have long pin bars that formed on H4.
Though it was very tempting they were all against the trend. What do you guys think? Am I wrong in my analysis?
Below are the pairs that have patterns at key levels. Is there anything that is with the trend? I don’t see one.
EURUSD - pinbar
GBPUSD - Hammer
AUDUSD - pinbar
USDCHF - Pinbar
USDCAD - Pinbar
NSDUSD - Pinbar.
Waseem
Firstly, as I understand it, the hammer and the pin bar are the same thing with different names. Either can be pointing up or down.
Secondly, as per Johnathon’s advice, you should start by looking at the daily charts, once proficient, then maybe start on the 4H. It isn’t a race. I may have this wrong and you may be a seasoned trader coming to this thread for a top-up on PA advice… or you may have 6 posts to your name, with a trade record that matches?!? What I do know, is that if someone is offering up professional long term experience… why wouldn’t you follow it to the letter?
Just my 2cents
GG
