Forex Price Action

yes i already in this trade as the bearish bar is sound enough and it forms at a nice area

Hi ABC,

This is highly dependent on what pair we are trading. And on how much trust I have in my FTA.

For instance, take a look at the a/j daily pb we discussed last week. I mentioned that it was manageable but I didn’t take it because in my opinion it required some tight management. On the other hand we had a beautiful beeb on the gold daily. Despite FTA being somewhat close too. I found it easily manageable.

In other words I rely heavily on my marked levels and ability to manage a trade.

Best

I do understand the importance of a good r:r rating as it is always a hot discussion between peers.
One side of the argument says every trader has to recognize that trading positions with extremely bad r:r can be dangerous over time.
The other side says that trading off solid levels with decent .pa signals near to never fails to hit FTA.

In my opinion, everyone has to crunch their own numbers. If your success rate overtakes your low r:r than it is a sane thing to do. In contrast there are many traders that aim for very high r:r but it takes many attempts and losing trades before their target gets hit. So you could argue that they are dangerous traders too.

That is solely how I see it and I don’t encourage anyone blindly jumping into trades without weighing the possibility of a trade going wrong.

Best

Agreed, the red line you have marked is what’s keeping me out as well. Price may well go to smash through this but I can’t risk my dough on whether this will or will not happen.

Hello everyone, I’m new here.
Am I right in my newbie analysis?

I don’t know why the image’s quilty ruined and i also can’t give you guys link to the picture because i got to have 5 messages, so I will explain:
The right graph is in 4 hours TF grpah and i found there BUEB. The left graph is daily graph and i marked the S&R levels and saw that the price is bullish. the Pair is GPBJPY.


Gbp/nzd 4h BEEB from swing high in the market direction .
Sorry can’t post chart

but this is very small


mates, bearish engulfing bar in swing high
what do you think about this tra:46:de?

Hi Dipsi-Pipsi
Cool name!
Welcome to this thread.

Your s/r lines look fine. and you identified a correct bueb But what do you want to do with it?

by the way your retro colours are brilliant! purple on pistachio green.

best

friends 2 bar reversal in daily chart


strong uptrend
nice retracement and
what are you waiting for?

is this a nice and perfect setup?
recently i have posting some awkward chart but if experts dont
criticize or praise then it would be hard to
understand for me
whether i am in right track
or wrong

Usd/Chf 4hr Trade Failed.



thanks very much , it takes sometime to really know what to do in these situations .

So here is the reason this would have been a bad trade, hopefully it helps you out :slight_smile:

Price was in a rising wedge (not spoke about here) and also has created a number of inside bars within the first swing of the pattern and the high was taken out, showing it will go higher… so you where basically trading right into a rising trend line.

Also bearish momentum was slowing and bullish momentum was building, you can see this on the chart, price has stalled around this level.

Also, if you use MTF analysis (Also not covered here) You would have seen the pin bar on the daily and the high (buy signal) had been taken out, but again, that ain’t covered here lol.

This is a reversal IB, and you are playing it from the neckline of a H&S pattern, so might be a risky one as the neckline has a chance of breaking… Take care (You entered too soon btw…)

Hi Mate.
Yeah I saw the rising wedge.
I actually had a trade either side of this area so caught some of the up move to achieve Break-even.
News pushed it up a bit as-well and its heading up into the fib retracements from the downwards swing.
May have an opportunity to short this pair again soon.
By the way where abouts in northern Ireland are you from?
I lived in Ireland for a while nice place.

This trade reminds me of the Whipsaw song.

“You get a whip and i get a saw,oh Baby.”

Ahh nice, smart move :wink:

I wouldn’t be looking to short it yet, there is a possibility it could go to the downward trend line, but there is a possibility it could stall after another small rise, then drop back to the neckline, so that would be the place to look to go long again.

Also, bullish momentum is strong, maybe Mr.Fox would know better… lol

Near Lisburn, out in the sticks lol, where did you live here?

I think the better explanation is that it’s a mediocre pin, headed straight into traffic. The lower wick is decently large and it’s showing rejection of the traffic below. It’s certainly not an A+ setup.

It’s not a good idea for new traders to get into the habit of searching for reasons (outside of their trading method) for why a setup didn’t pan out. If you’re going to start using outside methods to justify your losing trades, you might as well use them to justify your entry. Also, occasionally trades will just not work out. There doesn’t have to be a reason behind it, and you can’t expect to be able to explain every single move of the market. As long as you are consistent and have a trading edge you will come out on top in the end.

The methods posted here aren’t about just seeing a PA signal and trading it, but about reading the PA story the market is telling us as a whole. That pin is only a few pips away from being an indecision bar… we don’t need to resort to other methods to explain why it didn’t work out - the simple explanation is that it’s not an A+ trade that gives us an edge in the market.

There is always a reason behind it :wink:

Also, about traffic, I have never seen a chart with nothing to the left lol.

When a signal fails, you should look into why it failed…

Yes, about the whole PA story, well that wedge is part of the PA story, I understand that you may be looking for an edge, but you need to understand the market, patterns, know when to stay out, know how to identify setups, know when to get out of a trade early, and understand how momentum works, for example, if you have a massive down bar, and it is stopped by a tiny candle, then there must be some serious buying pressure to stop such a strong move, I won’t go into too much detail, as some people may get upset I am discussing things that are not covered in this thread.

The lower wick does show buyers are there, but overall, that pin bar did look like a good trade, it closed bearish, it closed under the trend line, but, it you take the daily into account, then you will understand why it didn’t work out…

Cheers

Most certainly, there is always a reason why a trade doesn’t pan out. However they might be technical might not. There are endless reasons, from what happens on the frontier dealing desks to patterns and supply/demand zones to the jawboaners on the news.

But nobody can gather everyones mind and funnel them into one direction. That’s why we try to simplify this process as much as possible. The usd/chf trade in question wasn’t the best signal. Interestingly price moved to FTA and bounced.LOL

Trading is not the easiest business:56:

Best