As ever, the first week of the month brings a raft of key economic releases, with all the major regions releasing numerous potential market moving figures. In the US, the resolution of budget talks will likely dominate the early part of the week, with markets focusing upon the key jobs data towards the second half of the week. In the UK, the three PMI figures due out in the early part of the week will take precedence for the markets. Meanwhile in the eurozone, the ECB interest rate decision on Wednesday dominates despite the release of PMI figures throughout the rest of the week.
In Asia, the release of three Chinese PMI figures will make for a lively week, where the September manufacturing figure on Tuesday is likely to be the highest volatility release. Over in Japan, the BoJ monetary policy decision on Friday represents the single event of note in an otherwise largely quiet week. Australian markets will be spurred on by a particularly busy week, where the release of the RBA cash rate and accompanying statement will likely play the prominent role when released on Tuesday.
[B]US[/B]
A major week for the US economy on a number of fronts. The ongoing worries surrounding the US budget looks likely to continue as we come into the Monday deadline. The ability or inability to find a palatable resolution will no doubt dominate the beginning of the week for the markets. Meanwhile, the remainder of the week looks set to focus upon a plethora of jobs data releases, building towards the crucial non-farm payroll figure on Friday.
The first major release of the week comes on Tuesday, with the ISM manufacturing PMI figure for September. Of course, the manufacturing sector within the US is the lifeblood of the economy and accounts for the large part of exports. The performance of this figure has often provided significant responses in the markets and certainly has the potential to again on Tuesday. Expectation is for a reduction from 50.7 to 50.3 which would represent the first fall in five months. However, given we have seen an out-performance of market forecasts in the past two months, there is a possibility that this could happen again. Bear in mind that any figure below 50.0 would likely bring a significant response in the markets.
On Wednesday, the September ADP non-farm employment change figure represents the first of four major jobs releases, where market expectations point towards a marginally higher figure of around 177k. This follows a figure of 176k in August. This release is generally seen as a secondary NFP indicator, where Friday’s headline release dominates. However, given the unwillingness of the FOMC to introduce tapering at their last meeting, the questions remain as to when the measure will be introduced. The next meeting after October’s would be December and thus the inability of the FOMC to see strong enough performance would be a significant coup for the markets. For this reason, watch out for any rise above expectations to likely be dollar positive or negative should it dissapoint.
On Thursday, the weekly unemployment claims figure provides a more short term view of the employment conditions in the US. In recent weeks, this figure has provided a strong picture of the jobs market, with the last four releases coming in above market forecasts. For this reason, despite the market pointing towards a rise from 305k to 315k, there is a potential that we could get a better figure closer to 300k.
On Friday, the release of the September non-farm payroll and unemployment rate figure are likely bring about one of the most volatile days of the month. Given the aforementioned association between US jobs market conditions and the potential for an October taper, both of these two releases will provide the most eagerly anticipated event of the week.
On Friday, the non-farm payroll figure follows the ADP with estimates of an improved number. The release typically represents the most closely followed event of the month and this will be no different. The past two occasions have disappointed somewhat, with both coming in well below estimates. For this reason, the expectation for a rise from 169k to 179k this week seem somewhat overdone, making forecasts less likely to be reached.
The unemployment rate is also due out on Friday, with the clear association between tapering and this figure making it as important as it has ever been. There is no expectation for a rise in this figure, yet given the past two months have seen a fall, there is a potential for a drop to 7.2%. That being said, it is worth noting that most of these reductions have been driven by a reduction in the participation rate. Thus watch out for the participation rate in the jobs report too, as a rise in this could be equally important in facilitating a reduction in asset purchases from the FOMC.
[B]UK[/B]
The UK is looking towards a week of PMI’s, with the manufacturing, construction and services figures set to be released from Tuesday to Thursday. These figures have performed very well over the recent months and markets will be expecting much of the same this week.
The first release is the manufacturing PMI figure, due out on Tuesday. The importance of the manufacturing sector is becoming increasingly clear, where the over-reliance upon the services sector means that diversification of exports and business within the UK is required for future stability of the economy. Market expectations point towards a rise from 57.2 to 57.5 and given the past five releases have come out above expectations, there is a distinct possibility we could have yet another strong figure. However, there are some who believe that this may be one step too far.
On Wednesday, the construction PMI figure is a similar story. Very pleasing readings over the past month or so provide for a positive outlook for the sector. Given the recent attention paid around the perceived ‘overheating’ of the housing market in the UK, it would be no surprise to see this figure continue to rise. Market forecasts point towards a rise from 59.1 to 60.1, which would represent the highest reading since September 2007.
Finally, the most important of the three is the services PMI release, due on Thursday. The services sector is the main driver of the UK economy and for that reason, the strength of services is paramount to a strong recovery. The current figure of 60.5 is clearly above the construction and manufacturing sectors and given it is at the higest level since the end of 2006, there is certainly a possibility that the readings will start to flat line somewhat. Market estimates point towards a marginal reduction to 60.4, however with the prior 8 readings coming in above estimate, I am expecting a marginal rise in the figure.
[B]Eurozone[/B]
A busy week in the eurozone, with the ECB providing their latest monetary policy decision, along with a handful of PMI figures out of Spain and Italy.
On Wednesday, the ECB will announce the latest interest rate decision, with almost certainty that there will be no change from the current 0.5% level. For all the talk of potential negative interest rates and alike, there is little appetite to make any tangible changes at the moment, especially just as the indicators are pointing towards a better than expected period. Mario Draghi has done a good job of talking the euro down throughout 2013 and this meeting will most likely only provide another opportunity to do so yet again. That being said, the markets are somewhat used to the dovish rhetoric Draghi tries to tout as a means to push the single currency lower and thus I do not see too much volatility off the back of this event.
The recent election victory in Germany provided a boost for the eurozone region, yet also provided the likes of Mario Draghi a greater degree of freedom to discuss potential weaknesses to the single currency in detail. Thus there is a possibility the dovish tones are ramped up somewhat.
The rest of the week brings Spain and Italy into focus with the release of manufacturing (Tuesday) and services (Thursday) PMI figures. Given that these two countries represent a significant proportion of the potential risks to the single currency, the strength of them is arguably as important as the stronger economies in terms of stability. Both performed relatively well last month, with manufacturing in particular seeing the two economies well into expansionary territory. The Italian services PMI is the one area of weakness, posting a contractionary figure of 48.8. Expectations are for a rise in all four measures, which would provide a notable boost for the region. Given the current strengthening of the eurozone, I would not be surprised to see them all rise this week.
[B]Asia & Oceania[/B]
A busy week in China, despite the existence of four public holidays from Tuesday onwards. The week will centre upon the release of three key PMI figures, starting on Monday with the final HSBC manufacturing PMI figure of August. This will be expected to provide the least volatility given that it is simply the final revision, where expectations are for the figure to remain at 51.2.
The dominant figure of the week is likely to be the September manufacturing PMI figure, due out on Tuesday. The importance of the Chinese manufacturing sector is difficult to overstate, with the global economy driven in one way or another by the continued trade brought about by the Chinese manufacturing sector. Market expectations point towards a continuation of the rise following four consecutive strong months, with forecasts looking for a rise to 51.6 from 51.0. Should we see such a move, this would no doubt provide many of the associated markets and economies with a much needed boost.
The third release is the non-manufacturing PMI figure, due out on Thursday. Of course, this comes secondary to the manufacturing figure given that the services sector is less well established and smaller in size. However, the markets will still be looking towards this figure for a note of how the economy is performing after a well publicised slow period. I expect to see this figure rise towards 54.2, despite a fall last month to 53.9.
Later in the week, the Japanese economy comes into focus, with the release of the monetary policy statement from the BoJ on Friday. The Japanese economy is likely to become increasingly central in the coming months, as an increasingly worrying picture in relation to debt is likely to force through some fairly drastic measures. The initial measure which is likely to be taken to stave off such debt will be the much discussed sales tax. However, this is likely to have little impact to the overall debt scenario and thus monetary policy is likely to be used as a means to address the issue. It is unlikely that any changes will be made at this meeting, however it is worth noting any reference to supply side measures such as the sales tax to understand whether there is a tangible desire to address the ongoing issue of debt.
Finally, in Australia we are keenly awaiting the release of their latest interest rate decision in what is a highly significant week for the island nation. The monetary policy decision from the RBA is first to grab the headlines when Glenn Stevens takes to the stage on Tuesday. There is significant appetite for devaluation in the Australian dollar and this has typically been the forum for such efforts. Given we saw a reduction from 2.75% to 2.5% two months ago I do not expect to see a further reduction this month. However, the statement has the potential to make an impact should the dovish stance be reiterated as I see likely.
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