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[B]EU Summit set to disappoint as China data bucks the trend[/B]

Today’s UK Opening Call provides an update on:

The start of the EU summit

* Spanish and Greek economies and
* Chinese GDP and Industrial Production figures

Today is the start of the EU summit and it’s expected to be just as disappointing as the rest.

It was hoped earlier this week that Greece will have struck a deal with the Troika in order to receive the next tranche of the bailout. This would have then been signed off at the summit, however this is now very unlikely. There were also reports that Spain were going to request a bailout before the summit, but this also appears unlikely to happen.

Spain will auction 10-year bonds today, 24 hours after Moody’s affirmed Spain’s credit rating at Baa3, one notch above junk status. Spanish yields fell heavily following Moody’s report, with 10-year bonds trading 34 basis points lower at the European close.

This is a positive sign for Mariano Rajoy who has failed to gather support since taking the reins earlier this year. This suggests…

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Forex research: Global markets daily

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[B]Slow start expected in Europe after another disappointing summit[/B]

Today’s UK Opening Call provides an update on:

* Corporate earnings season continues today after difficult start;
* Caterpillar to kick off the week before the opening bell;
* Slow start expected in Europe after another disappointing summit;
* Dollar trades lower this morning, paring Friday’s gains.

US corporate earnings will take centre stage again this week after a poor start to the reporting period.

It has been a tough couple of weeks for US companies. Despite the numerous profit warnings we saw in the lead up to the earnings season, investors have been surprised by the poor results seen so far. Third quarter earnings in technology stocks have highlighted the tough conditions in the US, leaving it to Apple to pick up the slack when it reports this week.

Caterpillar will kick the week off, reporting before the US opening bell. The company is expected to announce an improved earnings per share of $2.24, compared to $1.71 in the same quarter a year ago. This afternoon Yahoo are expected to report slightly improved earnings on a year ago of $0.26 per share.

Europe is expected to have a slow start this morning. Last week’s EU summit failed to inspire the markets after little was achieved. There was no update on Spain or Greece and promises of having a banking supervisor in place next year only acted as a reminder that…

[U][B]Read the full report at Alpari News Room[/B][/U]

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Craig Erlam talks about the rumours that Spain are preparing a bailout request and the US corporate earnings. He also takes a look at the currency charts where we’ve seen some significant breakouts.

Forex research: Global markets daily

66

[B]Final debate leaves the race neck and neck[/B]

Today’s UK Opening Call provides an update on:

* European shares show little movement following disappointing summit last week;
* Merkel to reward Greece’s efforts;
* Facebook to report after the closing bell;
* Final presidential debate leaves the race neck and neck;
* Dollar edges higher in the Asian session.

Stocks are expected to open slightly higher in Europe.

It was hoped that the EU summit last week was going to highlight the progress being made in the eurozone. Greece was expected to have agreed on cuts and reforms with the Troika by the summit which could then be signed off. Meanwhile it was rumoured that Spain would also request a bailout and take advantage of the ECB’s new bond buying program.

Neither of these were achieved at the summit leaving investors once again disappointed at the lack of urgency. This was an opportunity for the eurozone to stand up and demonstrate their commitment to the euro and silence their doubters. Once again they opted against this, instead offering an empty commitment to the formation of a single supervisory body by next year, a similar commitment to what we heard in June but with a later deadline.

While the summit was a disappointment, there were hopes overnight that…

[U][B]Read the full report at Alpari News Room[/B][/U]

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Craig Erlam talks about the new central bank growth estimate for Spain, Moody’s downgrade of five Spanish regions, the presidential debate and the US corporate earnings. He then takes a look at the currency charts.

Forex research: Global markets daily

68

[B]Chinese manufacturing improves suggesting better times ahead[/B]

Today’s UK Opening Call provides an update on:

* Stock markets fell yesterday as earnings bring prices back in line with reality;
* Uncertainty ahead with presidential elections looming;
* Apple unveils the iPad mini;
* Chinese manufacturing nears growth after a year of contraction;
* Risk averse traders continue to seek safe haven dollar.

Stocks are expected to open higher this morning after suffering heavy losses yesterday, as corporate earnings began to bring prices back in line with reality.

For the last few months, we’ve watched at the stock market has rallied well beyond the true value of the companies we continue to invest in. This was driven by central banks filling the financial system with liquidity.

Now we’re getting a reality check. Revenues are falling and companies are warning of difficult quarters ahead, with the two main threats being the eurozone and the fiscal cliff in the US. Until we see the former make significant progress and the latter resolved, the current rally cannot possibly be sustained without the markets creating a huge artificial bubble that must burst.

There’s going to be a very uncertain couple of weeks ahead. Not only do we have more corporate earnings to be reported, there is also…

[U][B]Read the full report at Alpari News Room[/B][/U]

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Craig Erlam talks about the key economic data out this morning and what it means for the markets. He then talks about Mario Draghi’s trip to Berlin to defend the OMT’s and Germany’s Bund auction this morning. Finally he takes a look at the charts.

Forex research: Global markets daily

70

[B]UK expected to storm out of recession in Q3[/B]

Today’s UK Opening Call provides an update on:

* Draghi’s meeting at the Bundestag went as good as it could have;
* Greece’s Finance Minister claims two year victory;
* Data expected to show UK came out recession in Q3;
* Fed keeps rates and asset purchases steady;
* Apple and Amazon report this evening.

Stocks are expected to open lower in Europe this morning.

Mario Draghi met with German lawmakers yesterday to clarify details and ease concerns over the ECB’s new Outright Monetary Transactions. Even the most optimistic of us had low expectations ahead of this meeting. There has been furious opposition to the bond buying program in Germany due to fears of the inflationary impact and the risk to taxpayers.

While Draghi by no means allayed all fears, he did gain the respect of many in Germany for his eagerness to clarify the situation, while plenty of lawmakers were also satisfied with his answers. Convincing the masses, including Jens Weidmann, still looks like an impossible task at the moment.

While little is likely to change from this, the fact that Draghi came away from this without strong objections is a major win for the ECB president. Also…

[U][B]Read the full report at Alpari News Room[/B][/U]

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Craig Erlam talks about today’s UK GDP figure, the two day FOMC meeting, Mario Draghi’s meeting at the Bundestag, the Greek talks with the Troika and Apple. He then takes a look at the charts.

Forex research: Global markets daily

72

[B]Spanish unemployment expected to rise above one in four[/B]

Today’s UK Opening Call provides an update on:

* Stocks lower on poor corporate earnings;
* Apple results miss expectations;
* Unemployment in Spain expected rise above 25%;
* GDP figure expected to show moderate growth in the US.

Stock markets in Europe are expected to open lower as corporate earnings continue to drag on sentiment.

Expectations were low heading into the season after numerous companies issues profit warnings in the weeks before. However while earnings haven’t been too bad, revenues have been very disappointing this quarter. On top of this there have been warnings about revenues in the quarters ahead, with many companies concerned about the debt crisis in the eurozone and fiscal cliff in the US.

Apple became the latest technology firm to release disappointing third quarter results. Despite reporting earnings of $8.67 per share, up from $7.05 a year earlier, and revenues of $36 billion, a 27% jump from a year earlier, shares are expected to drop after the opening bell as both missed estimates.

The miss was due to lower iPhone sales as consumers held off on buying the handset once rumours began about the the iPhone 5, which was released at the end of the quarter. The lower sales are expected to…

[U][B]Read the full report at Alpari News Room[/B][/U]

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[B]Eurozone to take back seat as we near US presidential election[/B]

Today’s UK Opening Call provides an update on:

* Investors likely to show caution ahead of the US presidential election;
* Corporate earnings season disappoints on revenues and outlooks;
* Eurozone to take back seat, as Greece continues negotiations with the Troika;
* UK Net Lending to Individuals expected to have picked up last month.

It promises to be another busy week in the markets as we near the US presidential election.

Despite being a busy week, the markets are likely to lack volatility compared to what we’re used to seeing during the corporate earnings season. The election result is going to have a major impact on the markets over the next few years which is going to add an element of caution in the markets this week.

We also have non-farm payrolls and the unemployment figure on Friday. These are even more important this month, with employment being a key issue in the election campaign. A significant swing in either direction is likely to be heavily reported in the media, potentially swinging the undecided voter.

We are now half way through the corporate earnings season and stock indices are beginning to edge lower, especially in the US where they recently hit multi-year highs. The earnings season has so far been disappointing with…

[U][B]Read the full report at Alpari News Room[/B][/U]

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Forex research: Global markets daily

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[B]Spain expected to remain in recession as cuts take their toll[/B]

Today’s UK Opening Call provides an update on:

* Another quiet day expected as US markets remain closed;
* Data expected to show Spain contracted by 0.4% in third quarter;
* German unemployment jumps for a seventh straight month;
* Eurozone progress remains slow;
* Hurricane Sandy hits the north east coast.

It’s likely to be another quiet day in the markets as the Hurricane Sandy forces the US stock exchanges to close for a second day.

Stock indices edged lower yesterday during light trade in Europe. We should see trade pick up this morning with some key economic data out, an Italian bond auction and the ECB president Mario Draghi due to speak in Frankfurt.

Data released this morning is expected to show the Spanish economy contracted by another 0.4% in the third quarter. This figure is in line with the estimate from the Spanish central bank last week, which is usually very accurate. The data will confirm that Spain remained in recession for a fourth quarter, where it is likely to remain until at least the second half of next year.

German unemployment is expected to have grown by around 10,000 in September, a seventh straight month it has risen. This is yet another sign that…

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Simple short videos, no confusing jargon and to the point - Brilliant.

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[B]UK consumers still not convinced as confidence hits 6-month low[/B]

Today’s UK Opening Call provides an update on:

* Indices continue to trade in a range  driven by eurozone and US uncertainty;
* Higher volumes expected today when US opens;
* Consumer confidence a concern in the UK;
* Eurogroup meeting begins today.

Stock markets are expected to open flat this morning as they continue to trade in a tight range.

The major indices have been trading in a range recently driven by uncertainty in the eurozone and the US. At the same time, stocks have become significantly overpriced and with corporate earnings season giving a more accurate picture of how companies are performing, investors appear unwilling to throw any more money at them.

Despite this, we’re not seeing the sell-off I was expecting. This could be due to the additional support provided by the Federal Reserve’s unlimited QE, however it is not sustainable. At some point, these prices are going to have to come back in line, a process that will be more painful the longer we keep inflating prices.

We should see more volume and volatility today with the US markets expected to reopen this afternoon after Hurricane Sandy wreaked havoc on the east coast earlier this week. Insurance companies are expected to be hit following the storm with insured costs expected to reach $10 billion. However…

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Craig Erlam talks about the US markets which will reopen today after Hurricane Sandy, Greece and the eurogroup meeting. He then takes a look at some of the major currency pairs.

Forex research: Global markets daily

81

[B]Improved Chinese manufacturing fails to impress the markets[/B]

Today’s UK opening call provides an update on:

* Stock indices continue to trade in tight range highlighting uncertainty;
* Chinese manufacturing data shows big improvement in October;
* Quieter markets expected ahead of big jobs report tomorrow;
* UK data expected out this morning.

An improvement in Chinese manufacturing has been unable to keep shares out of the red this morning.

All of the major European indices are expected to open lower this morning as we continue to see them trade in a tight range. Global economic uncertainty has paralysed the markets recently, despite concerns in the eurozone easing slightly as a result of the ECB’s new bond buying program. Instead it’s the US that’s creating the uncertainty in the markets, with the presidential election and fiscal cliff fast approaching.

Chinese manufacturing data showed a big improvement over night, however this went unnoticed in the markets. The official manufacturing PMI moved into growth territory in October after two months of contraction previously, while the HSBC PMI was revised higher to 49.5, just below the 50 level that separates contraction from growth.

This is a positive sign for the worlds second largest economy. The data suggests that the stimulus we have seen in recent months is having an impact, despite the tough global conditions. Exports are going to continue to struggle in China, with so much uncertainty in the US and austerity in the eurozone diminishing exports to two of its biggest trading partners.

Today is likely to be a little more quiet in the markets. Yesterday was manic as a result of…

[U][B]Read the full report at Alpari News Room[/B][/U]

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[B]Quiet start expected in Europe ahead of US jobs report[/B]

Today’s UK opening call provides an update on:

* Stock markets in the green across the board yesterday;
* Eurozone manufacturing PMI’s expected to remain in contraction territory;
* Further contraction expected in UK construction;
* Traders cautious ahead of jobs report this afternoon.

The markets are expected to be quiet this morning ahead of a major US jobs report this afternoon.

Stock markets had a much better day yesterday as economic data pointed to improvements in both China and the US. Corporate earnings remained mixed and are unlikely to have a major impact on the markets in the final couple of weeks with the presidential election now at the forefront of people’s minds. So far results have been disappointing and many companies have raised concerns about the upcoming quarters, with the eurozone and US fiscal cliff the top of their list of concerns. Yet we haven’t seen a significant drop in share prices despite them being very overpriced at the moment. Apparently when it comes to the stock markets, ignorance is bliss.

The Spanish, Italian and eurozone manufacturing PMI’s will be released this morning, all of which are expected to remain in contraction territory. There has been a wave of austerity throughout the eurozone this year so figures in the low 40′s are not going to surprise anyone. Given the further cuts and reforms to come, we can also expect these to fall further next year.

The UK construction PMI for October will also be released this morning. We have had contraction figures for the last two months and despite the fact that we saw the UK return to growth in the last quarter, a figure above 50 seems unlikely.

This afternoon, the US jobs report will provide the final employment data before the presidential election. The race is neck and neck at the moment and given the number of undecided voters heading to the polls in a few days, this data could prove decisive in who gets elected.

Recent non-farm payrolls have shown a moderate improvement, with revisions taking them up towards 150,000. The new ADP calculation suggested we’ll see a slight increase this month with a figure of around 158,000. However this is still not enough to significantly reduce the unemployment rate, despite it dropping to 7.8% in the last two months.

Recent job creation figures suggest that…

[U][B]Read the full report at Alpari News Room[/B][/U]

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Forex research: Global markets daily