0:10 Markets pull back ahead of key week
0:23 Manufacturing PMIs dominate
0:27 China PMI remained steady at 51.4 on sunday
0:45 Eurozone PMI largely better than expected
1:17 UK PMI well above expectations
2:06 A look ahead to the rest of a busy week
[B]Rising taper expectations weigh on European futures[/B]
Today’s UK opening call provides an update on:
• Rising taper expectations weigh on European futures;
• Sell-off in Gold and US Treasuries highlights investors taper concerns;
• RBA again raises concerns about the strength of the aussie, while keeping rates on hold at 2.5%;
• UK construction PMI and Spanish unemployment data released this morning.
Investors are becoming increasingly concerned about the prospect of a December taper from the Federal Reserve, as more strong US data suggests the country is recovering faster than expected despite the government shutdown in October.
The shutdown actually appears to have had absolutely no impact on the data that we’ve seen so far, which is good for the economy but bad for stock markets. This is the problem with the current situation in the US. A deterioration in the data sends US indices to record highs while signs of improving economic conditions sends investors rushing for the exit.
Monday’s improvement in both the Markit and ISM manufacturing PMIs prompted exactly this kind of response. If we see more good figures later this week when the services, housing and jobs data is released, I expect we’ll see a similar response. Everyone wants to be one step ahead of the Fed because when it does decide to reduce its asset purchases, the sell-off in risk assets will be significant.
It wasn’t just equities that investors decided to dump in response to the data, Gold also sold off aggressively, falling more than $30 to a five month low, as did US Treasuries, with yields rising 4 basis points to hit 2.79%. While the majority still don’t see the Fed scaling back its asset purchases until next year, unless the data takes another turn for the worse, we are likely to see investors hedging their bets a lot more as the December meeting approaches.
Overnight we also saw some selling in the Australian dollar, following the monthly meeting of the Reserve Bank of Australia. The central bank left interest rates unchanged at record lows of 2.5%, which came as no surprise, but in the statement that followed they once again raised concerns over the strength of the Australian dollar. The sell-off in the dollar in response to this wasn’t huge but it was big enough to suggest that traders are anticipating a move by the central bank soon to address these concerns as the markets repeatedly ignore its attempts at verbally weakening the currency.
The rest of the day is actually looking pretty quiet as we head into a manic end to the week, that includes central bank meetings, GDP data and the all-important, US jobs report on Friday. As for today, we have the UK construction PMI being released this morning, which is expected to fall slightly to 59, as well as the Spanish unemployment change, which is expected to show another 43,000 increase. This will worryingly be a third month where we’ll have seen an increase in the unemployment figure following five months of declines before that. We all knew that it would be a bumpy road to a recovery but it is a little concerning that it appears to have run into trouble already.
Ahead of the open we expect to see the FTSE down 17 points, the CAC down 13 points and the DAX down 21 points.
[B]US futures lower as tapering fears weigh on sentiment[/B]
Today’s US opening call provides an update on:
[ul]
[li]Tapering fears driving equity markets lower this morning;
[/li][li]QE infinity hangover could be severe;
[/li][li]Hedging against December taper on the rise;
[/li][li]Quiet US session expected, with no economic releases due.
[/li][/ul]
It’s been a relatively quiet morning so far in the markets, ahead of what is going to be an extremely busy end to the week.
Continuing to drive sentiment this morning has been growing fears that the Fed will scale back its asset purchases when it meets in a couple of weeks time. Until recently, this had looked unlikely due to the unknown impacts of the US government shutdown on the economy and the mixed data seen in the months leading up to it, but now it looks well and truly back on the table.
The data we’ve seen for September recently has been surprisingly strong. If we see similar figures from the rest of the November figures, the FOMC may be tempted to test the water with a small reduction of around $10 billion. That would still mean that $75 billion per month is being pumped into the financial system, but to traders it would symbolise the beginning of the end, and that is what is concerning to them.
This is the problem with unlimited quantitative easing, or QE infinity as it has been called. Investors have become hooked on it like a drug over the last 12 months. As soon as the Fed starts to withdraw it, the hangover will be felt in the markets. The faster the rate of withdrawal, the worse the hangover will be.
Yesterday’s strong manufacturing PMIs did nothing to ease concerns that the drug is about to be withdrawn. If the rest of the data this week is similarly strong, in particular the US jobs report on Friday, the hangover could set in early.
We’re already seeing signs of this in Gold and US Treasuries, both of which tumbled yesterday following the release of those PMIs. This is probably the clearest sign that investors are beginning to price in a December taper, although at this stage it’s probably more a case of hedging themselves, as opposed to actually buying into the idea, as they did in September.
The rest of the day is likely to continue to be quiet, with no notable economic releases due out of the US. Instead the focus will remain on tapering, which is likely to continue to weigh on indices, as we’re seeing in US futures already this morning.
Ahead of the open we expect to see the S&P down 6 points, Dow down 62 points and the NASDAQ down 5 points.
[B]Market jitters continue ahead of services PMI and ADP[/B]
Today’s UK opening call provides an update on:
• Markets indecision continues heading into key economic data releases
• Australian GDP falls short prompting calls for RBA rate cut
• Services PMI figures in focus across Europe and US
• ADP payroll release first of key US job figures
• BoC unlikely to move rates in the afternoon
European markets are expected open in a somewhat mixed fashion this morning following on from the clear indecision and heightened risk aversion that has been creeping into the markets so far this week. Coming off the back of some 8 week gains in the likes of the DAX in particular, there is no surprise that we are seeing a greater degree of weariness given that there are a number of high impact economic data points due out as the week goes on. The culmination of these comes in the form of Friday’s jobs data out of the US which has the potential to determine whether a December taper from the Fed is feasible or not given labour market strength (of lack of).
Corporate resurgence throughout recent earnings seasons have to a large extent been driven by cost cutting and streamlining measures, which means hiring has become alot more of a luxury than was previously the case. Thus whilst recent non-farm payroll figures have been even higher than pre-recession levels, they need to be to counterbalance the clear weaknesses inherent in the US labour force throughout recent years.
Overnight the Australian GDP figure put a dampener on the regions growth prospects, falling to 0.6%, from a revised figure of 0.7% last time around. The Australian economy has been in the limelight throughout 2013 given the changes from both an economic and political standpoint. Today’s blow marks yet another sign that despite the clear pickup in output within the Chinese region, this is having a lessened effect upon Australia than expected. Given that we have just seen the RBA decide against any further interest rate cuts yesterday, we will have to wait another month to see if they believe today’s figure is worthy of a cut. However, given the clear focus upon reducing the value of the Australian dollar as stipulated by Glenn Stevens on a monthly basis, I would not be surprised to see such a move next time around should data continue to disappoint.
Today marks the one day of the month where the services PMI figures come into focus, following on from Monday’s strong manufacturing releases. The provision of UK, eurozone and US services PMI figures represents a collection of key data points, what with the likes of the UK in particular being almost entirely dependent upon the services sector as a driver of growth.
The UK has often been criticised for over-reliance upon the likes of the insurance and financial sector which has seen the industry makeup over 75% of the GDP output seen in 2012. That being said, the sector has performed admirably throughout 2013, with the PMI measure rising out of contraction in January to the current level of 62.5. That is the highest level seen throughout the recession and even above the level seen prior to the initiation of the crisis in late 2007. The market expectations point towards a less impressive showing today, falling back to 62.0. However, given the surprises seen within the manufacturing and construction PMI readings earlier this week there is a high likeliness of a substantially improved reading. Should this occur, we could see the GBPUSD pair finally push clear of the 1.642 resistance level which has been the major sticking point throughout the beginning of the week.
In the US, the services PMI is also key going forward, due out later this afternoon. The FOMC’s decision with respect to a possible December taper is likely to account for the wider economic picture and for that reason, there has been a a heightened focus upon such economic releases this week. This could be seen on Monday when the US ISM manufacturing PMI reaches multi-year highs, pushing markets lower as tapering became a greater possibility. For that reason, markets will be look carefully for a similar upside shock in this release to encourage a pullback of stimulus from Bernanke and co as a sign that the week’s weaknesses in the indices could have further legs. The market estimates point towards a fall to 55.0 in the November figure, from 55.4 seen in October.
In the US, the markets will be keeping an eye out for the relase of the ADP non-farm payroll figure, due out in the early afternoon. This represents the key precursor to the headline number on Friday within the markets. That being said, the correlation between the ADP and official non-farm payroll figures have proved to be anything but. This is in part due to the ADP focus upon the private sector, thus failing to include public employment which is also reflected within the headline figure on Friday. That being said, given the importance of the decision making process from the FOMC, it is likely that the ADP figure will be taken on face value as another key indicator of recent job market health for the Fed to pick over. Market expectations point towards a greatly improved figure of 173k from 130k last month, showing the substantially distinct nature of the two measures (NFP came out at 204k last month).
Elsewhere in the markets, the central bank focus today will be upon the Bank of Canada, where governor Stephen Poloz is widely expected to refrain from any changes to the current 1% headline interest rate implemented in mid 2010. Poloz utilised a distinct change in language in the BoC rate statement in late October which has since brought about a substantial sell-off in the Canadian dollar. There is a clear likeliness that the newly revised statement which stripped the content with respect to near term rate rises will be utilised again. However, this time it will be expected and thus the market effect is likely to be minimal in comparison.
It is also keeping an eye out for the likes of the Canadian and US trade balance data released in the afternoon, followed by the pre-FOMC beige book at 7pm GMT.
European markets are expected to open mixed, with the FTSE100 -2, CAC +1 and DAX -3 points.
00:15 Markets lower ahead of key releases
01:00 Australia GDP disappoints
02:11 Services PMI misses expectations for first time in 10 months
03:01 Looking ahead to ADP Non-farm payroll
04:06 BoC interest rates expected to remain at 1%
[B]US data in focus ahead of the December FOMC meeting[/B]
Today’s US opening call provides an update on:
[ul]
[li]US data in focus ahead of the December FOMC meeting;
[/li][li]ADP watched closely ahead of Friday’s NFP release;
[/li][li]Beige Book also followed closely with FOMC meeting fast approaching;
[/li][li]European data mixed this morning.
[/li][/ul]
US futures are treading water ahead of the open on Wednesday, as the busy end to the week kicks off with ADP, services and housing data.
The US data is going to be followed very closely over the next couple of week, in the lead up to the December FOMC meeting. Investors had all but written off the chance of a December taper after the Fed opted against it in September and the US government then shutdown in October.
However, the recent improvement in the data, which included surprisingly strong figures for October, has forced investors to reconsider a small reduction in asset purchases this month. I still think this unlikely as we haven’t really seen evidence that the improvement is sustainable, but that won’t stop investors hedging their bets and reducing their exposure to risk assets, Gold and US Treasuries, as we’ve seen this week.
We have a whole host of key data being released on Wednesday, starting with the ADP employment change figure before the opening bell. In a week when the non-farm payrolls figure is seen to play a huge part in the FOMC decision, the ADP release will carry some extra weight with investors, despite previously being viewed as a relatively unreliable estimate. If we see another strong figure here it could prompt another round of selling in risk assets, as well as Gold and US Treasuries, while a weak figure will lower people’s expectations for Friday’s figure.
After the open we have the release of the services PMI for November, which is expected to fall slightly to 55. This is a significant figure again given the importance of the services industry to the US. Confidence in the economy going forward is crucial for the recovery to be sustained. We also have new home sales figures being released, which again given the importance of the housing sector to the recovery so far will be closely followed.
The Beige Book will also be of interest to investors as they look for insight into how the Fed view the economy right now. With all these being released, it should be a very interesting afternoon in the markets, as traders attempt to put all the pieces together and successfully predict whether the Fed will taper in two weeks or not.
This morning has already been quite eventful, as far as economic data is concerned. The services PMIs from the eurozone were quite mixed with the biggest concern coming from France. The country contracted slightly in the third quarter and now both the manufacturing and services PMIs are in contraction territory. That doesn’t bode well for them in attempting to avoid another recession in the current quarter.
The UK services PMI also fell more than expected in November to 60 from 62.5 in October. I don’t think this is too much to be concerned about at the moment, given that it’s a one-off figure and both the construction and manufacturing PMIs rose more than expected in the same month. That said, it did still prompt quite a significant reaction in sterling, with the pound falling almost half a cent against the dollar before recovering.
Ahead of the open we expect to see the S&P down 1 point, Dow down 1 point and the NASDAQ flat.
[B]Busy day ahead with BoE, ECB, Autumn statement and US data[/B]
Today’s UK opening call provides an update on:
• BoE rate decision to be a non-event today;
• Investors more focused on the Chancellors Autumn statement;
• ECB rate decision and press conference also likely to be a dull affair;
• US GDP expected to be revised higher ahead of this month’s FOMC meeting.
It’s going to be another busy day in the financial markets on Thursday, with two central bank rate decisions, the UK Autumn statement and a number of US economic releases shaking things up.
Things get underway today with the Bank of England rate and asset purchase decision, although like last month, it is expected to be a bit of a non-event. We’re very aware of the BoEs stance in relation to interest rates and asset purchases, following the quarterly inflation report hearing and Mark Carney’s testimony in front of the Treasury Committee in November. Therefore any change on interest rates or asset purchases is extremely unlikely.
With the Bank of England being very clear on monetary policy, the only potential issue now is future fiscal policy, something we should find out more on this afternoon when the Autumn forecast statement is released. Chancellor George Osborne is likely to first use today as an opportunity to laud the performance of the UK economy at the moment, while warning that more needs to be done to protect the recovery going forward.
He is then expected to announce a number of changes to spending and taxes for the years ahead, including business rates and the pension age, among other things. He will probably also touch on a couple of very unpopular topics at the moment, particularly the rises in energy bills, in which he is expected to announce a cut in green levies that will see bills cut by around £50 a year.
In terms of market reaction to the autumn statement, there probably won’t be much of one, unless Osborne announces something significant that the markets are not expecting. We may see some volatility in sterling, for example, during the statement but I don’t envisage any significant moves.
Next up is the ECB rate decision and press conference, and this is never a dull affair, even though today’s may be somewhat more tedious than normal. We saw a cut in the main refi rate last month to 0.25%, following the significant drop in the inflation rate, from 1.1% to 0.7%. Later on in November, the inflation rate rose to 0.9%, which probably had very little, if anything, to do with the rate cut the month before. Therefore, with disinflation not likely to be an issue for another few months at least, the ECB is very unlikely to act again today.
The press conference which starts 45 minutes after the rate decision may be a little more interesting, as is always the case, although compared to recent press conferences even this will be a little dull. One thing that could significantly shift the markets is if ECB President Mario Draghi confirms the rumours from earlier this month than any further cuts in rates would come from the Deposit rate, which currently sits at 0% and would therefore send it into negative territory. Rumours last month suggested that this would be cut in increments of 0.1%.
After this it’s over to the US, where we’ll get some more data releases that could highly influence the FOMCs decision when it meets in a couple of weeks time. The weekly jobless claims figure is expected to rise slightly to 325,000 from 316,000 last month, which again shows that businesses are not letting as many people go, compared to the last few years.
The key release though will be the preliminary third quarter GDP figure, which is expected to be revised higher from the advanced reading last month, to 3%, on an annualised basis. This is quite encouraging for the US and could again encourage the Fed to reduce its asset purchases in a couple of weeks and test the water to see whether the economy can continue the recovery without its support.
Ahead of the open we expect to see the FTSE down 12 points, the CAC down 7 points and the DAX down 10 points.
[B]US data key ahead of December FOMC meeting[/B]
Today’s US opening call provides an update on:
[ul]
[li]US data in focus ahead of the December FOMC meeting;
[/li][li]ECB press conference should provide some market volatility as always;
[/li][li]UK Autumn statement overshadows today’s BoE rate decision.
[/li][/ul]
It’s been a relatively quiet start to the European session on Thursday, ahead of a very busy afternoon that includes two central bank rate decisions, the UK Autumn statement and a number of US economic releases.
Of the above, the thing investors are most concerned with at the moment is the US data. The Bank of England and the European Central Bank are both unlikely to loosen further or tighten in the coming months, while tapering of the Fed’s asset purchase program could come as early as this month.
We’ve seen a significant improvement in the US data in the last couple of months, which is very surprising when you consider that the government shut down for almost three weeks in October and the US came very close to defaulting on its debt. At the very least this was expected to have a short term impact, but according to the data this is not the case.
The key release as far as the Fed is concerned will be tomorrow’s jobs report, but that doesn’t mean today’s GDP revision, jobless claims and factory orders data won’t also play a part. If these are all seen to be improving, like the majority of the data we’ve had in the last couple of months, and we get another strong jobs report tomorrow, the FOMC may struggle to justify not tapering in December.
As we’ve seen on numerous occasions this week, the markets are likely to be very reactive to the US data releases today, with, as we’ve seen repeatedly this year, good news being seen as bad news in the markets, and vice versa.
Also likely to cause a stir in the markets today, particularly the currency markets, will be the ECB press conference. The rate decision is due 45 minutes before the press conference and is expected to remain unchanged at record lows of 0.25%, following last month’s rate cut.
The press conference though could be a little more lively, with ECB President Mario Draghi’s comments tending to have a significant impact on the markets. This may be less the case today, given that any further rate cuts are unlikely in the coming months. Although, any discussion around negative deposit rates could prompt a reaction in the markets, following rumours last month that the next rate cut from the ECB would be to the deposit rate, and it would come in increments of 0.1%.
In the UK, the main event today will be the delivery of the Autumn statement by Chancellor George Osborne. Ordinarily we’ve be looking at the Bank of England rate decision, but with monetary policy likely to remain unchanged for the next 18 months, it’s fiscal policy that’s going to be key to the sustainability of the UK recovery.
Ahead of the open we expect to see the S&P flat, Dow down 6 point and the NASDAQ up 4 points.
[U][B]Read the full report at Alpari News Room[/B][/U]
00:09 - Markets marginally higher
00:48 - Australian trade disappoints
01:58 - Japan announce $182 spending package
03:02 - BoE & ECB monetary policy decisions
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[B]Caution expected ahead of massive US jobs report[/B]
Today’s UK opening call provides an update on:
[ul]
[li]Focus on the US on Friday;
[/li][li]UK consumer inflation expectations released this morning;
[/li][li]US jobs report key ahead of the December FOMC meeting;
[/li][li]Fed’s Charles Evans wraps things up this week.
[/li][/ul]
It’s going to be all about the US on Friday, with a number of economic releases scheduled that could highly influence the FOMCs decision on asset purchases at the meeting in two weeks.
We’re likely to see a quiet start to the European session, with the lack of economic data in Europe and investor caution ahead of these key US releases pushing investors to the sidelines. The US releases in the afternoon could prove to be the difference between the Fed reducing its asset purchases in a couple of weeks and not. It will therefore be no surprise to see investors approach them with plenty of caution.
The only notable releases this morning will be UK consumer inflation expectations figure and German factory orders. Both of these are seen as medium impact releases but given the day that lies ahead, I expect the impact to be minimal. Consumer inflation expectations have been falling in recent quarter, as inflation itself drops, which may suggest that consumers will be less demanding when it comes to asking for a raise. That said, with so many people feeling the pinch right now, I’m not convinced lower inflation expectations will make much of a difference.
The markets are sure to go mental at 1.30, UK time, an hour before the opening bell in the US, with the release of the jobs report in the US. It’s not just the non-farm payrolls that are released at this time, there is also a number of other very important parts of the jobs report, such as the unemployment rate and person income and spending. All of these will influence whether the Fed tapers, although clearly, the NFP figure is the most important.
It’s not just the NFP figure that investors will be looking for as well, previous revisions to the figure will be just as important, if not more so, depending what they are. Assuming no revisions at this stage, a figure around 180,000, which is expected, could well be enough to encourage the Fed to taper, which I’m sure would prompt investors to price it in more. This would be very bearish for Gold, stocks and US Treasury prices.
Anything significantly lower than this, or a significant downward revision to the previous figures, may suggest to traders that the Fed is unlikely to taper as there clearly isn’t evidence that the economic recovery is sustainable.
The unemployment rate will also be watched closely, although the headline figure will be less important than the participation rate. We’ve seen constant declines in the figure over the last 12 months, which has been, at least in part, due to the falling participation rate, which is not what the Fed wanted when it set its threshold for asset purchases and interest rates. Another fall in the participation rate could even convince the Fed that ongoing stimulus is needed before a reduction is made.
Other important aspects of the job report include personal income and spending, which is hugely important for a country reliant on consumer spending. The core personal consumption expenditure index is believed to be the Fed’s preferred measure of inflation, so is always worth keeping an eye on. The figure is expected to remain well below the central banks 2% target, but that could be an argument for a continuation of the asset purchase program in its current form. Deflation is as big a threat as high inflation, which could be a concern of certain FOMC members.
Finally, on the data front, we have the preliminary reading of the UoM consumer sentiment index, which is expected to rise slightly to 76.2, from 75.1 in November. Consumer sentiment is very important for the US economy, so the improving figures here following the substantial drop in September and October will also be noted by the FOMC.
Wrapping things up this week we’ll hear from FOMC voting member Charles Evans, who is due to speak in Chicago. This will provide the first Fed reaction to the figures and could provide key insight into whether they are likely to taper at the December meeting.
Ahead of the open we expect to see the FTSE up 10 points, the CAC up 3 points and the DAX up 8 points.
[B]Traders look to US jobs report for December taper clues[/B]
Today’s US opening call provides an update on:
[ul]
[li]Traders cautious ahead of US jobs report;
[/li][li]Another strong NFP figure may prompt the Fed to taper;
[/li][li]Previous NFP revisions also important;A
[/li][li]Other aspects of jobs report important, such as unemployment, personal income and spending.
[/li][/ul]
It’s been a very quiet start to the European session on Friday, which is hardly surprising considering that one of the biggest US jobs reports this year will be released shortly before the opening bell in the US.
Up to about a month ago, most investors had written off the possibility that the Fed could taper its asset purchases at the December meeting, following an apparent change of heart from them in September, a government shutdown that lasted almost three weeks and a near-default from the US on its debt.
It was difficult to know what kind of impact this would have on the economic data and many thought it would be at least a few months until we saw it cleansed of the temporary distortion that it would bring. That was not the case though and the data we’ve seen so far for October and November has suggested that the economy preformed very well throughout, and after, the shutdown. In fact, it improved on the months leading up to it.
The most important figures of these though, as far as the Fed is concerned, are the ones contained in the US jobs report. The October report was far better than all expectations, as 204,000 jobs were created and unemployment rose only marginally to 7.3%, which will be entirely due to the furloughed government workers that have since returned to work.
If we see a similar performance in the November jobs report today, I believe the Fed will seriously consider a small reduction in asset purchases at the next meeting in two weeks time. And I’m sure I’m not alone in that thinking. All you have to do it look at the activity in Gold, US Treasuries and indices this week when we’ve seen positive US data to see that traders are hedging more against a possible taper, and this will become even more priced in today if we see another strong jobs report.
It’s not just November’s figures that we need to pay attention to though. The revisions to past non-farm payrolls figures is also extremely important, as it’s only because these were revised higher last month that we’re even talking about the possibility of a taper this month. If we see a strong figure for November, but previous figures are revised lower, the Fed’s decision will be made much harder and it may suggest to them that the evidence isn’t there to suggest that the recovery is sustainable.
A number of other parts of the jobs report will also play into the Fed’s decision next month, for example the unemployment rate. The rate itself can be deceiving, however the participation rate that has impacted it a lot in the last year, could tell us a lot about people’s view on the recovery in the US. If people are continuing to drop out of the labour market it means they have no faith in the recovery. This is not what the Fed wanted when it set its unemployment thresholds last year.
Personal spending and income is also important as it gives an indication about whether the recovery is being driven by Americans spending more because of improved earnings, which is sustainable, or by running up more debt, which isn’t. Also we have the core personal consumption expenditure index, the Fed’s preferred measure of inflation, which is expected to show inflation falling slightly to 1.1%, well below its 2% target.
Ahead of the open we expect to see the S&P up 7 points, Dow up 65 points and the NASDAQ up 15 points.
Chief Market Analyst James Hughes looks at the prospects for the Fed tapering in December ahead of today’s nonfarm payroll data.
[B]Fed speeches key on Monday ahead of week long embargo[/B]
Today’s US opening call provides an update on:
[ul]
[li]Indices mixed followed strong US jobs report on Friday;
[/li][li]Good news is bad news scenario appears to be fading;
[/li][li]FOMC speeches key on Monday, with no major economic releases due.
[/li][/ul]
European indices and US futures are relatively mixed on Monday, following Friday’s strong US jobs report that sent stock markets flying higher.
The response on Friday was quite unusual compared to recent reactions to strong data. Quite often we’ve seen good data prompt a negative reaction in the stock markets, with investors taking the better figures to indicate a higher probability of a Fed taper in December.
Friday’s reaction suggests that markets are either confident that the taper won’t come until next year, which would be surprising given the recent figures we’ve seen from the US, or that a taper is mostly priced in an investors are comfortable with it. If the latter is true, it could mean we’ve seen the end, for now at least, of the good news is bad news scenario.
That is unlikely to be tested much this week though, given how quiet it is expected to be. There’s very little high impact economic releases scheduled for this week and with the FOMC meeting now only a little over a week away, no official comments are due from any Fed members starting Tuesday. This is normal the week before an FOMC meeting but means the markets will be lacking any real direction this week.
The final official comments this week will come today, with three Fed members due to speak. The only FOMC voter among these is James Bullard, who’s scheduled to speak in St.Louis. Bullard is a fairly neutral member of the FOMC, so his views on the economy and tapering could be very helpful in determining what the FOMC will do next.
We’ll also hear from Jeffrey Lacker and Richard Fisher today, although neither of these are voting FOMC members, don’t directly influence the outcome of the vote. That said, they may still be able to provide important insight into which way the Fed is leaning at this stage.
The rest of the day is likely to be very quiet, just as we’ve seen so far this morning. There has been a few pieces of data released today, but it’s had very little impact. The focus is clearly on next week’s FOMC meeting now and anything else is likely to be largely ignored.
Ahead of the open we expect to see the S&P up 2 points, Dow down 5 point and the NASDAQ up 6 points.
[B]Investors shrug off taper warning from Fed’s Bullard[/B]
Today’s UK opening call provides an update on:
• December taper on the cards, markets not bothered;
• Bullard comments prepare markets for taper next week;
• Focus on UK this morning, with manufacturing and GDP estimates expected.
It would appear that despite US indices remaining at, or very close to, record highs, investors have almost fully priced in a small taper by the Fed, when it meets next week.
There were signs that this was the case on Friday, when a strong US jobs report prompted a positive reaction in the stock markets, which goes against the good news is bad news scenario that we’ve seen so much of recently. This was all but confirmed yesterday when we heard from three members of the Fed yesterday, all of whom strongly hinted at a reduction in asset purchases next week, which had no negative impact on the markets. In fact, the S&P 500 ended the session at record highs.
Comments from two of these, Richard Fisher and Jeffrey Lacker, would not have ordinarily had much of an impact on the markets as these are known hawks and therefore regularly call for reductions, while warning against the risks and costs of the program. However, it was the comments from James Bullard, a known dove and FOMC voting member, that gave the clearest message yet that a taper next week is well and truly on the cards.
Bullard claimed that a small taper to QE3 would acknowledge the improvements in the labour market while allowing them to monitor inflation next year. This is as clear a message we’ve had in recent months about the timing and size of the first taper, which should now come next week and be around $10 billion, bringing the asset purchase program down slightly to $75 billion. The only question now will be whether the Fed starts by tapering purchases of Treasuries, mortgage backed securities, or both.
The lack of a response in the markets clearly shows that investors have finally accepted that the Fed’s asset purchase program is on borrowed time and have already started to move on. That said, a bigger first taper than expected would still likely have quite a negative impact on the markets. Investors have only priced in a small taper at this stage, anything larger would still prompt that shock response we’ve seen so many times this year.
European futures also appear to have shrugged off Bullard’s comments from last night, with indices seen opening only marginally lower. The day ahead in Europe is looking a little quiet again, with only a couple of pieces of noteworthy data being released. The first of these is the UK manufacturing and industrial production figures for October, both of which are expected to show a 0.4% increase, which is a little lower than September’s gain.
This will be followed by the UK NIESR GDP estimate for the three months to November, which should give us the clearest indication yet about the kind of growth we’ll see in the fourth quarter. The last few figures have been very strong, compared to what we’ve become accustomed to in recent years, although they do seem to be falling gradually, which suggests the recovery is losing momentum.
Ahead of the open we expect to see the FTSE down 13 points, the CAC down 7 points and the DAX down 12 points.
A somewhat mixed bag this week, as the major economies calm down somewhat after last week’s plethora of tier 1 economic releases. The major US event is likely to be the retail sales figure, due on Thursday. In the UK, the NIESR GDP estimate is one of very few big releases this week. Meanwhile in the eurozone, the industrial production figure is likely to attract attention amid a very quiet week.
In Asia, the only event of note to catch the eye is the Chinese industrial production release on Tuesday. Meanwhile in Australia, Thursday’s jobs report is going to be key going forward.
[B]US[/B]
The markets are reeling somewhat following a particularly strong week of releases from the US. The significant out-performance of the jobs data in particular means there appears to be more of a decision to be made from the FOMC when they reconvene at next weeks meeting. However, last week was also notable for the strength of figures such as the manufacturing PMI and GDP figure which indicated a more rounded recovery for the Fed to ponder. This week, we will be focusing largely upon the retail sales data out on Thursday, along with Friday’s PPI inflation figure.
On Thursday, the retail sales figure is due to provide an update on how the sector is faring. This is crucial coming into the festive period whereby the likes of the Thanksgiving and Christmas sales provide a boost to the sector. The retail sales data is notable for the fact that it reflects how consumers perceive inflation expectations, along with current and future earnings conditions. On this occasion, market expectations point towards an improvement in this figure, from 0.4% in October to 0.6% in November. Should we see 0.6% achieved, this would be the highest level in six months and thus would be highly positive. However, there has been an overall propensity for this measure to disappoint recently so I am wary for that reason. That being said, this November data should include a significant degree of of the black Friday sales, which took place on the 29th. It was widely publicised that the black Friday sales disappointed, being trumped by the so called ‘cyber Monday’. Thus this figure will be key to understanding the overall effects that the Thanksgiving sales had upon the US retail sector.
On Friday the US PPI inflation figure is released, with a clear linkage between US monetary policy and inflation likely to dominate. The PPI figure is key because it is the earliest indication of the current level of price inflation available for the US economy and is highly correlated with the CPI measure. One of the factors which could be seen as a deterrent to the FOMC tapering this month is the fact that despite monetary policy being loose, the inflation rate remains at very low level, thus indicating a possibility of defaltion should we see the end of monetary expansion. On this occasion, this argument seems to be valid, given that the monthly PPI figure is expected to come in at 0% from -0.2% last month. Should we see this figure fall below 0%, it could be seen as negative for taper prospects.
Finally, on Thursday, the weekly unemployment claims figure provides us with another measure of the jobs market ahead of next week’s Fed meeting. Given that this is only a weekly reading, it is less significant than the likes of the non-farm or unemployment rate. However, it is another indicator that is likely to be considered by Bernanke and co, thus giving it more importance this week. Market expectations point towards an increase in claims from 298k last week to 321k. However, given the strong all-round jobs figures seen last week, I expect the positive trend to continue with a better figure on Thursday.
[B]UK[/B]
A quiet week in the UK, where the only major events of note comes in the form of the manufacturing production and NIESR GDP estimate releases. The manufacturing production figure comes off the back of a particularly strong manufacturing PMI figure last week, pointing to a pickup in the region during November. This is called back into question on Tuesday, when the rate of production is expected to fall from 1.2% in October to 0.4% in November. Given we saw such a strong PMI last week, I think we could get a pleasant surprise on Tuesday.
The NIESR GDP estimate represents their calculations of the how much the value of all goods and services produced by the UK economy has grown in the last three months. Generally, this reading is a fairly accurate barometer of the UK growth and thus markets will be keeping an eye out for this release. The last two months have seen a slowdown in the rate of growth from 0.9% in September to 0.7% last month. Thus this is key to seeing if we can expand growth this month or continue on the recent downward trajectory.
[B]Eurozone[/B]
A very quiet week in the eurozone, where the only event of note is the release of the industrial production figure on Thursday. This event is even unlikely to move markets given that previous months have seen very little volatility around this figure. Markets expect to see it push back into positive growth following a poor figure of -0.5% in September. However, despite the expected 0.2% move to growth for October, it is the fact that this figure is lagging by a month which makes it somewhat less influential in the markets.
Also keep an eye out for two speeches from ECB president Mario Draghi, which have the potential to bring volatility to the markets.
[B]Asia & Oceania[/B]
A similarly quiet week in Asia, where the main event of note is the industrial production figure out of China. The industrial production figure is key given the impact a strong manufacturing sector has upon both domestic and global growth. Thus a reduction in this could be an indicator of another slowdown in the region going forward. Market expectations point towards a marginal drop in the rate of growth from 10.3% to 10.2%, which would not be much of a problem. However, be aware that this figure is a good proxy of how the manufacturing sector is faring and thus any poor figure could shock markets.
In Australia, the jobs report due out on Thursday means that we could get some significant volatility in the latter part of the week for assets associated with the region. The headline unemployment rate provides the starkest indicator of exactly where the Australian jobs market currently stands and market expectations point towards a second rise in as many months. Should we see this figure rise to 5.8% from 5.7% last month, this would provide yet another indicator for the RBA to justify a possible rate cut next month. Following disappointing GDP and export data last week, there is clearly a form of slowdown in place despite a pickup in the Chinese region. Thus watch closely for whether these jobs releases show a deterioration in the employment conditions as it could also provide a clue as to the RBA’s next move.
The employment change figure is expected to show a similar picture of employment on a more micro level. On this occasion, the markets are expecting to see the employment change fall from 1,100 jobs created in October to 1,000 in November. This may be marginal, but would show consistency of the trend should this occur.
[B]US futures higher despite threat of taper next week[/B]
Today’s US opening call provides an update on:
[ul]
[li]US futures higher following record close for the S&P 500;
[/li][li]Investors clearly comfortable with moderate taper next week;
[/li][li]Gold rally unlikely to continue if Fed tapers next week;
[/li][li]Quiet day expected with little data due and no Fed members speaking.
[/li][/ul]
European indices are trading slightly higher on Tuesday and their US counterparts are seen doing the same after the opening bell, despite comments last night from a number of Fed members that suggested tapering could begin next week.
The trend recently has been for any hint of tapering in December to be negative for the markets but that appears to have changed, starting on Friday with the US jobs report. The response to the report showed that attitudes in the market has changed and tapering is no longer going to fill investors with fear. Well, as long as it’s only moderate tapering. Anything larger and we’ll be back to square one.
Comments last night from a few members of the Fed, including one from a dovish voting FOMC member, only increased the odds of a taper next week. Clearly investors are now comfortable with the taper and are choosing to focus on the improving economy to drive markets higher, rather than the threat of less stimulus, as seen by the record closing high in the S&P 500 on Monday.
Gold prices have been a key focus over the last couple of trading sessions, given its correlation with Fed monetary policy. Despite the increasing likelihood of tapering, Gold has been creeping higher in the last couple of sessions, but I don’t expect this to continue. It still remains in a very clear downtrend and is likely to continue this way in the coming months. Especially if people believe that tapering could have disinflationary consequences for the US, something James Bullard claimed the Fed would keep a close eye on, with inflation already very low.
Today’s session is expected to be very quiet again, with no high impact data due out of the US and Fed members under a week long embargo ahead of the FOMC meeting on 17/18 December. We will hear from ECB President Mario Draghi before the opening bell in the US, but nothing is expected from this. The ECB only recently cut interest rates and is unlikely to do so again anytime soon.
The UK NIESR GDP estimate for the three months to the end of November will be released shortly after the US open and should provide some insight into whether the UK recovery is losing momentum. The last couple of figures have shown a small downturn in growth, which may raise fears about the sustainability of the recovery going into 2014.
Ahead of the open we expect to see the S&P up 2 points, Dow up 15 point and the NASDAQ up 6 points.
Thanks to all for sharing.