Chief Market Analyst James Hughes looks at this week’s testimony from Fed Chief Janet Yellen testimony and sees how markets are reacting to a weaker than expected jobs report on Friday.
European futures point to a positive start to the week
Today’s UK opening call provides an update on:
• Indices seen opening higher ahead of quiet morning in Europe;
• UK retail sales rise 3.9% in January according to BRC;
• Business confidence and house prices on the rise in Australia;
• Yellen’s testimony takes centre stage this afternoon.
European futures are pointing to a moderately higher open again on Tuesday, with the FTSE seen opening 24 points higher, the CAC 8 points higher and the DAX 22 points higher. With little driving the recent improvement in investor sentiment, it’s looking more and more likely that the correction which started at the beginning of the year may well be over.
That said, to say it’s all up from here would be getting way too ahead of ourselves. This year is not going to be like 2013, when stock markets were making new highs every week regardless of whether economic data was strong or weak, or whether earnings season was good or expectations were just low. We’re likely to see a more considered approach this year, with investors no longer being able to rely on the Fed to give a reason to buy every dip.
We could be in for a very quiet start to the European session on Tuesday, with no economic data being released until this afternoon. There’s been a few releases over night, most notably the BRC retail sales number from the UK, which showed a significant pickup in consumer spending in January. The 3.9% increase in same store sales seen last month is the biggest rise since April 2011. With the consumer being so important to the UK economy, this is a very encouraging sign for the first quarter of the year.
There was also some good news for Australia, where NAB business confidence rose to 8 in January, up from 6 in December. At the same time, the house price index showed a higher than expected quarterly increase of 3.4%, which on the one hand is positive as it reflects confidence in the housing market. On the other hand, there have been fears of a property bubble in Australia so the Reserve Bank of Australia may not be too happy about this. Least of all because it further restricts their ability to loosen monetary policy in order to stimulate the economy and weaken the currency, which is now testing 90 cents against the greenback following these releases.
The key event today will be new Fed Chair Janet Yellen’s first testimony on the semiannual monetary policy report in front of the House Financial Services Committee. In the last two months the Fed has decided to reduce its asset purchases by $10 billion at each meeting, while the jobs report has given us very little to be happy about. This will be our first insight into the Yellen’s take on this which should help us understand whether it will encourage the Fed to slow the rate of tapering at the next meeting in March.
One thing is for sure, the House will Financial Services Committee will not go east on Yellen, just as they didn’t with her predecessor Ben Bernanke, so we could get some valuable insight about how the Fed plans to approach tapering and interest rates over the next couple of years. We should also get Yellen’s view on some other hot topics including the run on emerging markets which many blame on the pace of Fed tapering.
[B]Yellen testimony takes centre stage on Tuesday[/B]
Today’s US opening call provides an update on:
[ul]
[li]US futures point to a fifth day of gains as the correction comes to an end;
[/li][li]Yellen’s testimony takes centre stage today;
[/li][li]Investors want to know what the recent poor data means for tapering.
[/li][/ul]
US futures are pointing to a higher open on Tuesday, with the S&P seen opening up 8 points, the Dow up 66 points and the Nasdaq up 16 points, or around four tenths of one percent. This comes following four consecutive days of gains and another positive session in Europe and Asia, which suggests the correction may have finally run its course.
The correction since the start of the year saw 7.5% wiped off the Dow, more than 6% of the S&P and more than $3 trillion off global indices, before they started to recover late last week. It’s quite rare that we see a technical correction, which is a 10% pull back, so it’s looking more and more likely than stocks can now once again push on from here.
That said, this is unlikely to carry on as it did before, with investors buying the dips regardless of whether the news was good, bad or mediocre. With the Fed slowing the rate of asset purchases every meeting, investors will have to be much more calculated when it comes to which dips to buy and what constitutes good news. This should make for a much slower rally in equities than we saw last year, which is in no way a bad thing.
New Fed Chair Janet Yellen will have the opportunity to update everyone on the Fed’s monetary policy stance when she delivers the semiannual monetary policy report in front of the House Financial Services Committee today. The stance of the Fed is unlikely to have changed in recent months, despite the fact that the data has been largely disappointing, particularly job creation.
That said, people will be looking for any indication that the Fed could slow the rate of tapering at the next meeting in order to allow the economy to pick up again, before continuing with its plan of ending quantitative easing this year. The Fed has stated previously that tapering is not on a set path and it could be slowed if the data deteriorates. Yellen’s comments should tell us whether the recent data is bad enough to constitute pause in tapering.
As it stands, I don’t think investors expect it will, especially as the Fed announced a second taper in January, despite the December numbers being far from satisfactory. With that in mind, it will be interesting to see what kind of an impact it would have on the markets if Yellen hinted at a slowing of tapering. Would investors take the short-term view and celebrate more asset purchases, or have they moved on from that and would therefore respond negatively to the Fed’s concern that the poor data could continue. One thing we could deduce from Friday’s response is that investors aren’t too sure what to celebrate at the moment.
Aside from this, there’s very little to focus on today, with the economic calendar looking very thin and corporate earnings season playing less of a role.
Markets higher as correction appears to be over - 00:09
Strong Australian releases push the AUD higher - 00:25
Janet Yellen testimony due to highlight monetary policy approach as Fed chair - 00:46
Research analyst Joshua Mahony discusses the ongoing strength seen in global markets. He mentions the overnight release of positive Australian data which has fed further into the AUD strength. However, it is the testimony from Janet Yellen which dominates today and Joshua discusses what he is looking out for in the session.
[B]Carney in the spotlight as investors seek interest rate guidance[/B]
Today’s UK opening call provides an update on:
• Investors encouraged by Yellen’s view on the economy;
• Australian consumer confidence falls faster than expected;
• Doubts raised over Chinese trade balance figures again;
• BoE inflation report in focus as investors look for better guidance on interest rates.
European indices are expected to open in positive territory on Wednesday, with the FTSE seen opening up 12 points, the CAC up 11 points and the DAX up 29 points. The gains came following another positive session in the US and Asia overnight, where traders were encouraged by Fed Chair Janet Yellen’s testimony in front of the House Financial Services Committee.
Yellen confirmed that the Fed intends to continue to taper its asset purchases every month with the aim of ending them altogether later this year and was confident that the poor data seen in December and January didn’t truly reflect the strength of the recovery in US. She also suggested that the weather likely skewed the figures, despite one aspect of the jobs report on Friday suggesting otherwise, which in turn would suggest that the market is reading far too much into the recent figures.
This confidence from Yellen clearly fed back into the markets, where investors didn’t really need much of a boost given that US stocks were already headed for a fourth consecutive winning day, while indices in Europe were closing in on a fifth. It seems that investors are now convinced that the correction is over and are once again happy to buy the dips, although maybe not quite as aggressively as they were at times last year.
The data overnight did little to impact sentiment, positively or negatively, with the drop in Australian consumer confidence not coming as a huge surprise, although it did initially weigh on the Aussie currency, which is now trading back at one month highs.
More surprising was the Chinese trade balance figures, which appear to have been shrugged off altogether despite being significantly better than was expected. Given the history surrounding these figures, with the exports figure in particular being distorted by companies falsely recording capital inflows as exports, it shouldn’t be too surprising that this has been overlooked.
The figures were far better than expected, especially the exports figure which people expected to be much lower due to the over inflated figures last year which came before the crackdown on these kinds of practices. The much better than expected data has called the reliability of the data into question again, forcing most to simply ignore the data, as if it had not been released.
Once again today we have very few pieces of economic data being released. The key event will be Bank of England Governor Mark Carney delivering the UK quarterly inflation report, in which he will give the central bank’s forecasts for growth and inflation. While this is clearly important, with growth expectations likely to fall largely in line with current forecasts and inflation likely to remain close to the BoE’s target, this is not what people are going to be tuning in for.
Instead, people will be hoping that Carney addresses the BoE’s forward guidance, which was introduced during his first quarterly inflation report last year. Unemployment has fallen much faster than expected and is currently only 0.1% above the threshold that the central bank gave for when it will start to consider an interest rate hike. Given that they only expected this to happen next year, it has completely negated what the guidance was meant to achieve.
During today’s press conference, Carney may use this opportunity to either scrap the guidance altogether, instead insisting that the economy is improving and there’s no need for such guidance any more, while claiming that a interest rate hike is not likely any time soon. Alternatively, he may amend the guidance, either by lowering the unemployment threshold or changing it to something else altogether. Whatever he does, we can only hope it does more to assure the markets than his last attempt did.
James Hughes Chief Market Analyst takes a look today’s inflation report, what it means for the UK economy and looks at how the currency and equity markets have reacted to Mark Carneys statement.
[B]European indices set to pare recent gains[/B]
Today’s UK opening call provides an update on:
• European indices set to pare recent gains;
• Focus on German inflation and Greek unemployment this morning;
• Yellen’s testimony postponed due to winter storm warning.
European futures are pointing to a slightly lower open on Thursday, with the FTSE currently seen opening down 15 points, the CAC down 6 points and the DAX down 13 points. This comes after a very good February so far for European stocks, so a fifth of a percentage point drop in pre-market trading is nothing really, just a small correction on the path back to highs we were trading around in the middle of January.
Indices have now erased most of the losses made in the wake of the emerging market turmoil, which was essentially just an excuse for a long overdue correction. This is a completely healthy part of the bull market and most were happy to see it. With that now behind us though, we need to see new 2014 highs being made or we could see a little unease creep back into the markets as investors question whether it was indeed a small correction or the start of something much bigger.
Thursday is shaping up to be relatively quiet, particularly the morning part of the European session with a severe lack of economic data being released. There are a few figures being released but these have proven to have minimal impact on the markets in the past, such as the final German CPI figure and the Greek unemployment rate.
Low inflation is a known problem in the eurozone, one that the ECB appears to be very reluctant to tackle. The German figure, expected to fall to 1.3%, highlights the concern that these low levels of inflation are not just occurring in the periphery, where countries are undergoing painful austerity programs in order to regain competitiveness, which effectively leads to intentional deflation. If we’re also seeing low inflation in Germany, then this is a problem in the whole region and the ECB is effectively ignoring its mandate in doing nothing about it. This does raise questions over the ECBs independence as its decisions are clearly being influenced by the desire to not ease up on those countries undergoing tough reforms and austerity programs.
The ECB monthly report will also be released this morning, although this generally has very little, if any, impact on the financial markets. If we were unsure as to why the ECB aren’t cutting rates, this could prove useful, but we know it’s because inflation expectations are in line with its mandate of below, but close to, 2%.
There are a few more notable pieces of data being released later on in the US session, although one thing we’ll have to do without is Fed Chair Janet Yellen’s testimony in front of the Senate Banking Committee after it was postponed due to weather warnings. Tuesday’s testimony in front of the House Financial Services Committee didn’t offer much that we hadn’t already assumed so it’s probably no big miss.
[ul]
[li]Low inflation not just a concern in eurozone periphery
[/li][li]Greek unemployment rises to all time high
[/li][li]US retail sales and jobless claims key this afternoon
[/li][/ul]
[B]Europe flat ahead of eurozone GDP readings[/B]
Today’s UK opening call provides an update on:
[ul]
[li]European indices expected to open relatively flat;
[/li][li]Investors surprisingly upbeat despite more poor US data yesterday;
[/li][li]France avoids recession with marginal growth in Q4 and upward revision to Q3 figure;
[/li][li]Italy expected to announce quarterly growth for the first time since Q2 2011 as Prime Minister Letta resigns.
[/li][/ul]
European index futures are looking pretty flat ahead of the open on Friday, with the FTSE seen opening 7 points lower, the CAC 2 points higher and the DAX 21 points higher. Only the DAX move represents more than a tenth of a percentage point move in either direction from yesterday’s closing price so therefore point to a relatively unchanged open.
I guess we should be quite encouraged by this considering the US data yesterday afternoon wasn’t exactly encouraging. Not only were retail sales for January lower than expected, December’s number was revised lower and the weekly jobless claims were higher, raising further fears about the strength of the labour market.
Still, investors remained quite positive, focusing instead of the earnings results along with reports of increased M&A activity. I guess Fed Chair Janet Yellen’s assurances about the economy on Tuesday didn’t do any harm either, as she highlighted the temporary distortions in the data due to adverse weather conditions. I think this was pretty clear all along but when markets are a little overstretched, as they were at the end of the year, investors will use anything as an excuse to sell, or lock in profits.
Investor sentiment at the end of the week could be determined by this morning’s fourth quarter GDP figures for a number of eurozone countries and the region as a whole. Things have got off to a very good start, with France managing to avoid another recession, with growth of 0.3%. As it turns out, a recession was never really on the cards, as the previous quarters reading was revised out of negative territory, to 0%. While this is good news, it does represent yet another quarter of marginal growth in France, with forward looking data, such as PMI readings, showing no sign of improvement.
Still to come we have GDP readings for Germany, Italy, Greece, Portugal and the eurozone as a whole. The Italian release could mark a turning point for the country, with it having not recording positive quarterly growth now since the second quarter of 2011, resulting in the longest recession on record. Expectations today are for 0.1% growth, which isn’t much but hopefully it’s a sign that, slowly but surely, things are starting to improve. Although, given the fresh political crisis, with Prime Minister Enrico Letta being forced to hand in his resignation, it may be a little early to celebrate.
[B]US futures flat ahead of key consumer reading[/B]
Today’s US opening call provides an update on:
[ul]
[li]Eurozone grows faster than expected in Q4;
[/li][li]Letta’s resignation overshadows first quarterly growth figure since Q2 2011;
[/li][li]Focus turns to US consumer as the week draws to a close
[/li][/ul]
Indices are expected to open relatively flat on Friday, following a very good week for US equities, with the S&P seen opening unchanged, the Dow 9 points higher and the Nasdaq 4 points higher.
It’s been a positive start to the day in Europe with GDP figures exceeding expectations pretty much across the board in the eurozone. It all got off to a great start as we learned that not only did France avoid falling into recession in the fourth quarter, with 0.3% growth, it was never at risk of recession in the first place as it never contracted in the previous quarter. The initial -0.1% reading was revised to 0%.
Clearly this tiny amount of growth still isn’t good enough for a country like France, but avoiding another recession and recording some growth is a good platform for improvement. Just look at the UK last year to see what a difference it can make. It may be difficult to quantify, but I fully believe that headlines highlighting higher levels of growth rather than recessions have an impact on consumer sentiment and therefore growth in the quarters ahead.
The figures were also better than expected for other countries, with Germany once again leading the way with 0.4% growth. The eurozone as a whole also performed better than expected, with 0.5% in the final quarter of the year, up from 0.1% in the third.
It’s been a mixed day for Italy, as news of the first quarterly growth figure since the second quarter of 2011 was completely overshadowed by reports that Prime Minister Enrico Letta will resign after the Democratic party called for a change of government. Political instability in Italy is unfortunately not that uncommon but it was hoped that the coalition government that was formed last year could drag Italy out of the rut it is in. Clearly the Democratic Party believe not enough has been achieved on the reform and growth side and have decided it’s time for a change.
This doesn’t appear to be weighing on sentiment this morning, although this may be due to the fact that reports yesterday had all but confirmed this would happen. Investors are instead choosing to focus on the positives around the better levels of growth in the region.
The end of the week in the US should be relatively quiet, although there are a couple of important pieces of data being released that could impact the markets. Industrial production in January is expected to have grown by 0.3%, the same as in December, which given the difficult months, on the weather front, isn’t too bad at all.
Finally we have the preliminary UoM consumer sentiment reading which is going to have additional importance following yesterday’s disappointing retail sales figures. This figure should tell us whether the data in December and January was just weather related or whether it is the start of a longer, and troubling, trend.
More Italian political turmoil as Prime Minister Letta resigns - 00:09
Italy records its first quarterly growth since 2011 - 03:55
France avoids falling into another recession - 05:05
US consumer confidence remains higher despite tough couple of months - 07:15
A somewhat busy week ahead for the markets, as traders seek to gauge whether recent strength is ill-founded or likely to continue apace. US markets will be dominated by the release of the minutes from the last FOMC meeting which saw the second taper in as many months. In the UK, the release of jobs data on Wednesday is sure to garner substantial attention given the tumble in unemployment seen recently. Meanwhile in the eurozone, the release of key PMI data will dominate as the leading indicator provides clues to what is forthcoming for the single currency region.
In Asia, the Chinese HSBC manufacturing PMI will shed light on a region which has been showing clear signs of another slowdown given recent announcements. Meanwhile in Japan, the GDP figure will provide greater transparency as to how the economy is growing amid ongoing easing and an impending rise in consumption tax.
[B]US[/B]
The US markets have been receiving somewhat mixed signals of late, with disappointing data being supported only by Janet Yellen’s insistence that the Fed will continue to accommodate and support the economy going forward. It is with these factors in mind that we are looking towards the week ahead, with the FOMC minutes and CPI inflation figure taking the limelight.
First of these is Wednesday’s release of the latest [B]minutes[/B] taken from the January [B]FOMC meeting[/B] which resulted in a second taper in asset purchases. Given that this taper came off the back of a substantially lowered payrolls figure, the signs are pointing towards substantial emphasis behind the Fed plan to end all asset purchases by the end of 2014. However, it is worth noting that this previous payrolls figure was deemed a one off, affected by the adverse weather seen across the US. However, with the second consecutive poor payrolls figure coming soon after this meeting, it will be interesting to see if there are any indications of what would constitute worthy of halting the regular reductions in the size of the asset purchase policy.
On Thursday, the release of the [B]CPI inflation[/B] measure is likely to draw significant attention, with the tightening of monetary policy in the limelight. The target of price stability is something which dominates all central banks in the western world, and the US is certainly no different. Thus as the Fed retract their stimulus, it is key to watch for signs of whether the economy is moving towards a deflationary scenario. Should the inflation rate threaten to move even lower, it could see the monetary policy adjusted to stave off such a threat. Estimates point towards the year on year CPI figure remaining at 1.5%, with the monthly figure falling to 0.1% from 0.3%.
[B]UK[/B]
A notable week in the UK, where the release of the CPI inflation figure, jobs data and retail sales figures are likely to bring a significant degree of volatility. The first of these is the [B]CPI[/B] figure, due on Tuesday morning. Much like the US CPI release, this figure is worth watching out for given that the primary mandate of the BoE is to provide price stability. Fortunately, the current 2.0% rate of inflation is the target for the BoE and thus barring any significant jumps we are unlikely to see any major volatility.
On Wednesday, we are expecting the most volatility, where the release of the jobs data will highlight whether the improvements seen over the past four months are set to continue apace. The [B]unemployment rate[/B], currently standing at 7.1% is the lowest seen since early 2009 at which point the rate was rapidly on the rise. Thus the fact that the UK unemployment is so rapidly falling is a testament to the positive transition the economy is currently within. Mark Carney’s previous stipulation that upon reaching 7.0%, the BoE would consider raising interest rates appears to now be out the window, after issuing ‘forward guidance 2.0′. Thus whilst the reduction of this measure may be somewhat less critically linked with monetary policy, there is certainly going to be some aspect of interconnectedness between the health of the jobs market and monetary policy going forward.
Finally, the release of retail sales data on Friday is expected to pull back somewhat following the highest rate of month on month growth seen since 2008. Retail sales are a key barometer of economic health from the viewpoint of the everyday person. Given that retail sales are influenced by both current and future conditions, this figure is both current and forward thinking. This predictive element is due to the fact that many large purchases are made against a backdrop of future expectations of employment, earnings and future inflation. The market expectations are for a -0.9% pullback compared to December, yet given the strong reading from the BRC earlier this month, I am hoping for a somewhat better figure to be released.
[B]Eurozone[/B]
This week is likely to be dominated by the release of the ZEW economic sentiment figures for both Germany and the eurozone, followed by Thursday’s raft of PMI figures. Firstly, Tuesday’s [B]German[/B] and [B]eurozone ZEW economic sentiment[/B] releases provide a valuable insight into the outlook of German institutional investors and analysts as to the direction and health of both the country and single currency region. Of the two, the German figure is typically the most important given that it is compiled within the country. What is notable is that forecasts are pointing to a divergence of the two figures, where the German number is expected to remain static, whilst the eurozone figure pushes higher. However, given that the German figure is coming off the highest levels seen since well before the 2007 crisis, this is not something to worry about. The positives are really there to be taken from the eurozone figure though, which has continued to push higher, reflecting significant improvements within perceptions of the recovery. Market estimates point towards a rise from 73.3 to 73.9, where the German figure is estimated to remain at 61.7.
Later in the week, the release of a whole host of manufacturing and services PMI figures are likely to make for an interesting Thursday morning. The French and German PMI figures are always important given that they represent the two largest countries within the single currency and thus are key to driving forward growth within the region. In the past, PMI figures have been seen as crucial predictive barometers for bigger headline events such as the GDP and alike. Thus it is worth watching out for any significant moves towards or away from the 50.0 mark which constitutes expansion from contraction. Of the releases, it is the [B]French PMI figures[/B] which are the most worrying, given that we have seen contraction for such an extended period of time. The [B]French manufacturing PMI[/B] has been contracting since mid 2011 and this has been slow to improve, with 5 of the last 6 figures coming in worse than expected. Estimates point towards a rise to 49.8 from 49.3, which is very close to that crucial 50.0 mark. Thus I am looking out for a potential push back into expansion to spark markets into life and grab the headlines.
The German and eurozone figures are somewhat safer, with figures well away from that crucial 50.0 mark. However, look out for the [B]German manufacturing PMI[/B] in particular, which is expected to rise significantly this month. Given that the German manufacturing sector adds more to the eurozone than any other industry in any country in the single currency region, such a rise would be highly bullish for the region. Estimates are pointing towards a jump to 56.5 from 54.3, which would be the highest level since mid 2011.
[B]Asia & Oceania[/B]
China comes back into focus this week, as the weaknesses seen particularly in the manufacturing sector may be highlighted yet again. The sell-off seen in the emerging markets over the past few weeks was initiated in large part by the tumbling [B]HSBC manufacturing PMI[/B] figure seen last month which fell back into contraction. Unfortunately February is not looking any better, with the preliminary figure expected to fall further into decline, from 49.5 to 49.4. The HSBC reading is key given that it is impartial as opposed to the official readings. It is also more focused upon the smaller and medium sized businesses rather than the larger ones and it is those whom tend to feel tightening credit conditions and demand issues first. Be sure to watch out for this figure as a potential market mover given what happened last month.
Finally, in Japan the [B]preliminary GDP[/B] reading will dominate the headlines, given that the economy is showing signs of strength in response to the the monetary easing measures undertaken by the BoJ. Questions have been asked as to whether the Japanese economy can handle the proposed rise in sales tax which is due to be introduced in April. Thus it is imperative that we see continued improvements in the likes of the GDP and consumption figures. Estimates point towards a rise to 0.7% in Q4 2013, from 0.5% in Q3.
[B]Europe looks higher as markets question whether correction is over[/B]
Today’s UK opening call provides an update on:
[ul]
[li]Indices to open relatively flat as traders question whether correction is over
[/li][li]New Zealand data disappoints following strong recent gains
[/li][li]Japanese GDP slows despite high expectations
[/li][li]Chinese lending points to ongoing accomodative environment
[/li][/ul]
European index futures are looking somewhat slow today, as a relatively quiet start to the week means that there are few real market drivers. The correction seen throughout the early part of this year appears to be over, yet similarities between the past year in the DJIA and the lead up to the 1929 crash have investors worried. That almost mirror between the two points towards a possible sharp sell-off in the forthcoming weeks and thus there is a degree of scepticism in the markets until we manage to create a new high. Currently, the European markets are expected to open marginally higher, with the FTSE100 +1, CAC +20 and DAX +40 points.
The New Zealand economy came back into focus over the weekend, as the release of retail sales data saw the first disappointing figure of 2014. The Island nation seems to have been a shining beacon over recent months, with falling unemployment and central bank which is likely to be the first to buck the trend by actually raising rates rather than promising to keep them low for an extended time. This highlights the ‘carry trade’ prospects of the kiwi dollar, which is turn has risen to a February high in Friday. However, having initially rejected a key resistance level at 0.838, questions are being asked as to whether we are likely to transition into a medium term uptrend or push lower once again.
Subsequently, the release of poor retail sales data thus comes at an opportune moment, given that this is the first disappointing tier one release of 2014. However, the muted response seen in the NZDUSD market so far likely reflects the fact that the release portrays a retail sector which is still growing, albeit at a somewhat lesser pace than expected. The retail sales figure is always hugely important given that it act as a barometer of both current and future expectations with regards to employment, earnings and inflation. However, with the rate of retail sales typically fluctuating around parity on a regular basis, it remains to be seen whether this is enough to begin another phase of selling in the kiwi.
Asian markets ended the session higher, despite disappointing GDP data out of Japan. Much of this was driven by credit conditions in China, which saw stronger than expected lending from creditors of 1.32 trillion yuan ($218 billion) worth of new loans last month. Given that this comes amid markets worrying whether the PBOC will be tightening conditions, there is now increased confidence that the environment remains relatively accomodative.
On a more negative tone, the Japanese saw their GDP figures fall short, with Q4 seeing a rise of only 0.3% despite expectations closer towards 0.7%. On an annualised basis, this is only a 1% rise and clearly in not enough for an economy which needs to be thriving ahead of a proposed consumption tax in Q2. I had expected to see growth really pick up ahead of the tax rise, where people make their significant purchases ahead of time to ensure they receive a better price. However, this does not appear to be the case and thus there are worries as to whether we will see a dramatic drop in consumption once the tax is imposed.
Markets are expected to be relatively quiet today, where the release of few data points coincides with a public holiday in the US owing to Presidents day.
Chief Market Analyst James Hughes looks at the situation in Italy and runs through todays movements on currency and equity markets as US markets are closed for Presidents Day.
[B]Big UK data week starts with today’s inflation readings[/B]
Today’s UK opening call provides an update on:
• Nikkei flies, yen tumbles on BoJ cheap loans extension;
• Big week of data for the UK, starting with today’s inflation readings;
• Eurozone economic sentiment expected to improve again in February;
• US traders return to their desks following long bank holiday weekend.
European futures are pointing to a slightly higher open on Tuesday, with the FTSE currently seen 11 points higher, the CAC 1 point higher and the DAX 10 points higher.
These gains follow positive session in Asia overnight, particularly Japan, where the Nikkei was boosted by the news that the Bank of Japan will extend two programs that offer cheap loans to banks by a year. This is good news for the economy but I think the reaction was a little over the top, with the Nikkei rallying more than 3% and the Japanese Yen sliding against the dollar.
There’s a lot of important economic data being released today, with a particular focus on the UK. Ever since Bank of England Governor Mark Carney announced the changes to forward guidance to remove the focus from just the unemployment rate, the other pieces of tier one economic data have become even more important. This week there is plenty of these scheduled for release, starting today with a batch of inflation figures.
The most important of these inflation readings is the consumer price index, as this is the one the BoE pays most attention to. In December, inflation fell back to 2%, in line with the BoE’s target for the first time since November 2009. This is where it is expected to have remained again in January, which is supportive for the recovery for two reasons.
Firstly, and most importantly, it means the BoE is under no pressure to hike interest rates and risk choking off what little recovery we’re seeing. Secondly, it means that the gap between wage growth and inflation is narrowing, which is good because it eases the pressure on families who are struggling due to the rising cost of living. This allows the consumer driven recovery to continue as people can buy more with their money. Of course, this is still not sustainable in the long term if spending is being funded by debt, but it should aid the transition to the next stage of the recovery which involves businesses investing more in an improving economy.
Other inflation readings may also be taken into consideration by the BoE, especially the PPI reading which can be a useful indicator of future price hikes for the consumer. Recent readings have been relatively low which suggests inflation is going to remain within the central banks target in the near future.
There is also a couple of important pieces of data for the euro area, with ZEW releasing its economic sentiment survey’s for Germany and the eurozone. The former is expected to remain in line with January’s release, at 61.7, which being well above 0, the level that separates optimism from pessimism, is very encouraging. Even more encouraging is the fact that the eurozone figure is expected to rise to 73.9 from 73.3. This figure has risen rapidly over the last 12 months, as the eurozone and a number of its member states have climbed out of recession.
Over in the US, traders will return following their long weekend after celebrating Presidents Day on Monday. While this will provide a boost to trading volumes which were typically lower as a result of their absence on Monday, the session itself should be a little quiet with the lack of data providing little in the way of catalysts. The only notable release here will be the Empire State manufacturing index which is expected to fall to 10 from 12.51 in January.
BoJ doubles incentives to spur bank lending - 00:22
UK CPI falls to 1.9% from 2.0% - 02:09
ZEW survey points to medium term worries from EM and US - 03:26
Research analyst Joshua Mahony discusses the spike in Japanese equities overnight following a BoJ announcement. He also discusses the UK CPI fall, which has hit 1.9%. Finally Joshua mentions the mixed ZEW survey and what it means for economic outlook in both the Eurozone and Germany.
[B]US futures flat after a quiet start to the week in Europe[/B]
Today’s US opening call provides an update on:
[ul]
[li]US markets reopen after quiet start to the week in Europe;
[/li][li]UK inflation falls below 2%, weighing on sterling and boosting the FTSE;
[/li][li]Economic sentiment takes a hit in the eurozone in February;
[/li][li]Manufacturing the highlight of the US session
[/li][/ul]
Indices are expected to open relatively unchanged on Tuesday following the long weekend in the US, with the S&P seen 3 points lower at 1,835, the Dow 7 points lower at 16,147 and the Nasdaq 8 points lower at 3,655.
The markets were relatively quiet on Monday which isn’t uncommon during a US bank holiday. The lower trading volumes were not helped by a severe lack of catalysts, with the Asian and European sessions offering very little direction for the markets, either with economic data or earnings.
There’s been more to speak about on the economic data front this morning though, with UK inflation data bringing about some weakness in sterling. The CPI figure for January fell to 1.9%, from 2% in December, which is a positive thing for now as it is comfortably within the Bank of England’s target of around 2%.
However, we did see some selling in sterling as falling inflation makes it less likely that the BoE will hike interest rates later this year, something that some analysts have been predicting will happen and that had driven the pound higher. While this is negative for sterling, it is very good for the UK economy as it means there’s less chance of the recovery being choked off by a premature rate hike and it continues to close the gap between wage growth and the cost of living.
The ZEW economic sentiment figures for Germany and the eurozone were not so good, with both falling well below expectations and the German figure recording its second monthly decline. This has weighed on investor sentiment this morning, pushing European indices lower, with the Euro STOXX 600 and the CAC down around 0.5% and the DAX lower by 0.2%. The FTSE isn’t holding up too bad, trading 0.02% lower, boosted slightly by that inflation reading.
The first day of the week for the US is likely to be a quiet one, with very little economic data being released and little direction coming from Europe. The only notable release today is the Empire State manufacturing index which is expected to fall to 9 in February, from 12.51 the month before.
[B]US futures lower ahead of the opening bell on Wall Street[/B]
Today’s US opening call provides an update on:
[ul]
[li]US futures lower ahead of the opening bell on Wall Street;
[/li][li]FOMC minutes, housing data and Fed speeches in focus on Wednesday;
[/li][li]UK unemployment rises despite larger than expected drop in jobless claims
[/li][/ul]
US futures are pointing lower ahead of the opening bell on Wednesday following a mixed start to the week. As it stands, the S&P is seen opening 6 points lower at 1,834, the Dow 50 points lower at 16,080 and the Nasdaq 10 points lower at 3,669.
It’s not surprising to see last week’s bullish sentiment cooling a little, considering that US markets have just had their best week of the year so far. There’s also been a lack of positive catalysts so far this week which could be used as an incentive for traders to buy. This is a result of both the bank holiday on Monday and the light economic calendar when traders returned to their desks yesterday.
Things should hopefully pick up though, with plenty of economic data, FOMC minutes and speeches from Fed officials all scheduled for today. The data seen so far for December and January has not been great, largely due to the unusually bad weather for these months, and I expect the same to true of the January housing data being released today.
Building permits and housing starts are both expected to be slightly lower than in December, dropping 6,000 to 0.98 million and 49,000 to 0.95 million, respectively. While some have looked at these disappointing figures as a indication that the housing market is slowing due to higher mortgage rates, I’m not yet convinced. Numbers are still high, even compared to earlier last year, and I’m sure they’ll continue to rise as the weather improves.
The FOMC minutes will be the highlight of today’s schedule, as investors look for further evidence that the Fed will not be driven off the current course of tapering by the disappointing figures seen in the last couple of months. I think it’s quite clear at this stage that tapering will continue in March, and probably in the months following, based on the comments from Fed Chair Janet Yellen and other FOMC members. However, traders are always looking for additional confirmation, or even hints that everyone at the Fed is not on board with the current roadmap.
Also providing clarity will be Fed members Dennis Lockhart and James Bullard, with both scheduled to speak later on in the US session. I don’t expect the tone of these to be much different with Bullard a known hawk – also a non-voting member this year – and Lockhart recently stating that he does not expect the rate of tapering to change unless there’s a serious deterioration in the economic outlook, which the recent figures don’t support.
The European session has been fairly negative so far on Wednesday, sending the major indices in the region down by around half a percentage point. The major focus this morning has been on the rise in the UK unemployment rate which rose to 7.2% despite a higher than expected 27,600 drop in jobless claims and an improved revision to December’s number.
European markets fall - 00:09
UK employment data paints mixed picture - 00:22
Real wages trend improves after earnings grow above estimates - 02:17
Looking ahead for FOMC minutes - 02:58
Research analyst Joshua Mahony discusses the UK unemployment figures which have painted a mixed picture somewhat. He also discusses the impact the rise in average earnings could have upon the economy. Looking ahead Joshua discusses the FOMC minutes which are due to be released later today.
I agree that the employment report painted a mixed picture. However, I am not at all convinced that we can see the fall in the GBPUSD from the current levels. The pair might keep on finding buyers from the lower levels.
I think the upcoming FOMC minutes are key for the pair. If fed is positive, then we can witness some pressure on the sterling in the short term.