Based on option trader’s price action from settled date: May 6th 2016.
Market’s analysis for options on CME futures markets include 10 markets: US 10 year Treasury notes (ZN), E-mini SP500 (ES), Crude oil (CL), Gold (GC), Silver (SI), Euro (6E), Yen (6J), Pound (6B), Aussie (6A) and Cad (6C).
Based on option trader’s price action from settled date: May 9th 2016.
Analysis for CME futures options is based on daily changes in amount of call and put options being bought or sold in monthly option contract with highest daily volume and all options contracts combined.
Market’s analysis for options on CME futures markets include 10 markets: US 10 year Treasury notes (ZN), E-mini SP500 (ES), Crude oil (CL), Gold (GC), Silver (SI), Euro (6E), Yen (6J), Pound (6B), Aussie (6A) and Cad (6C).
Let’s take a look at max option pain for ESK6 options on e-mini SP500 Jun 2016 futures market, OGM6 options on Gold Jun 2016 futures market and SOM6 options on Silver Jul 2016 futures market.
As we can see max option pain for SOM6 options expiring on May 25th 2016 is at $16.25.
Daily forex spot option expiries at 10am New York time.
[B]Option expiration date: May 27th 2016[/B]
Let’s see which currency pairs have at least $1 billion worth of options expiring on this day.
Over 1 billion worth of options will expire at one strike price in forex spot market of: EURUSD (euro vs US dollar) and USDJPY (US dollar vs Japanese yen)
Perfect max option pain for silver SOM6 options contract that expired yesterday.
Wrote about it last week in this thread, now let’s see the final SOM6 Open Interest profile and why price settled so perfectly (full size pic in original blog post much better quality than resized version here).
Inside this video you’ll see benefits of trading binary options as well as education on max option pain analysis and why its so powerful in giving you the edge in your trading financial markets.
[B]Binary Options Trading Market Sentiment Jun 9[/B]
Calls and puts 1 day changes for options on CME futures markets:
Significant buying of CALL options (calls): Japanese Yen = JPY, EUR and US 10 Year Treasury Notes (US 10 year government bonds) call options.
Significant buying of PUT options (puts): British pound = GBP, AUD and CAD put options.
If we focus mainly on currency futures options expiring on Jul 8th 2016 then most significant 1 day change of Open Interest (OI) was due to [B]buying of JPY calls and GBP puts.[/B]
At time of posting this blog post on Jun 9th 2016 at 6.23am New York time prices were: - USD/JPY around 106.50 - GBP/USD around 144.60 - GBP/JPY around 154.05
Last trading prices at the end of this week on Jun 10th 2016 were (source Finviz): - USD/JPY 106.92 - GBP/USD 1.4251 - GBP/JPY 152.33.
Both GBP/USD and GBP/JPY finished the week around 200 pips lower compared to when binary options daily trade ideas were posted on Jun 9th 2016 inside original blog post.
[B]Option Traders Price Action On British EU Referendum[/B]
On Jun 23rd 2016 British people have EU referendum to stay or leave European Union.
With remain and leave sides by latest polls being almost equal at around 44%, this is creating huge jump in options implied volatility since financial markets could be shaken a lot in case majority decide to leave EU.
Let’s take a look at a price action of option traders to see where they think price of British Pound or GBP/USD exchange rate could go in next few days and weeks.
[B]Forex spot options price action for GBP/USD[/B]
We can see that At-The-Money or ATM options implied volatility is today around 44% for 1 week pound options.
This would transfer in daily 1 standard deviation moves of around 400 pips either way from current GBP/USD spot price of around 1.4650.
Or to say in more simple way – there’s around 69% probability that this week GBP/USD exchange rate every day make a move up to 1.5050 or down to 1.4250 for a total swing as much as up to 800 pips from high to low.
[B]CME futures options price action for 6BN6 options on GBP Sep 2016 futures contract
[/B]
We’ll look at settled data from Jun 17th 2016.
Silver July 2016 and Gold August futures contracts have monthly options expiration day today on Monday, Jun 27th 2016 for SON6 silver options and OGN6 gold options.
As we can see max option pain for silver options SON6 is at $16.00 while for gold options OGN6 is at $1,300.