Forex Spot & CME Futures Options Analysis by InvestingPit

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103

Gold Feb 2017 futures contracts have monthly options expiration day on Dec 27th 2016 for OGF7 options.

Gold futures options OGF7 expiring on Dec 27th 2016 have over 4,500 contracts of put options below $1,150 strike price waiting to settle in the money on option expiration day. This is based on Dec 16th 2016 settled date info.

Can this be good enough incentive for option writers to fight for gold to stay above $1,150?

OGF7_2016_Dec_16_bp.png699×535 107 KB

As you can see at $1,150 there are over 4,500 put options waiting to get in the money so option writers (usually big banks) will be motivated for Gold Feb 2017 futures contract price to settle at option expiration day on Dec 27th 2016 above $1,150.

For full analysis with commentary…
…VISIT original blog post at
https://investingpit.com/gold-max-option-pain-analysis-ogf7

104

Last trading price in 2016 for Gold Feb 2017 futures contract was $1,152.0 :35:

105

With 2016 slowly ending and yesterday being last trading day of 2016…

…let’s take a look at how financial markets performed in 2016.

Let’s see which type of binary options trading was most profitable in 2016.

We will focus on forex and financial futures markets since there are traders that trade mainly forex spot markets & most binary options brokers give highest yields on trading options on forex spot markets.

For this reason we will focus mainly on trading financial markets offered to trade with most top binary options brokers which are major forex spot pairs plus US, EU & Japan stock indices plus bitcoin, gold and silver.

Forex Spot Markets Performance in 2016


As we can see the best performing currency in 2016 was actually a digital currency BITCOIN gaining over 110% versus USD, while worst performing currency was GBP or British pound losing over 16% versus USD.

For full analysis with commentary…
…VISIT original blog post at
https://investingpit.com/top-binary-options-trades-in-2016

106

Daily forex spot option expiries at 10am New York time.

Option expiration date: Jan 4th 2017

Let’s see which currency pairs have at least $1 billion worth of options expiring on this day.

Over 1 billion worth of options will expire at one strike price in forex spot market of: EURUSD (Euro vs US dollar) and EURGBP (Euro vs British Pound).

EURUSD 1.0400 (EUR 3.4 bln),

EURGBP 0.8500 (USD 1 bln).

Blog post source: https://investingpit.com/forex-spot-options-daily-expiry-2017-jan-4

107

Which financial market could be “the most sure thing” for trading binary options in 2017?

Let’s refresh our memory on most popular financial markets that are being offered not just by binary options brokers but also pure forex brokers or more specific US futures brokers.

We’re talking about trading financial markets where you have a chance to trade online spot markets and options on spot and futures market.

OK let’s cut to the chase – top markets to trade with binary options brokers are:

in currencies markets: EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDJPY and AUDUSD,
in equities markets: SP500 and Dow 30,
in precious metals: gold (fx spot pair XAU/USD) and silver (fx spot pair XAG/USD).

Since it would be too long to analyse 8 markets in depth here, we’ll just write strike prices of max option pain for call and put options and their open interest (OI).

Then we can monitor how spot prices are being pulled towards this levels through out the year 2017.

Source of data used: CME Group website providing info on options on futures markets that are trading at CME Group exchanges.

Data taken at settled date: Jan 20th 2017

Criteria to put it on the list is max option pain with minimum of 1,500 contracts for silver, 3,000 contracts for currencies and 5,000 contracts for gold.

EURUSD: 6EM7 max option pain strike price 1.0350 PUTS with OI 3,688 contracts

GBPUSD: 6BH7 max option pain strike price 1.1500 PUTS with OI 3,228 contracts

Gold: OGH7 max option pain strike price $1,250 CALLS with OI 4,656 contracts

Gold: OGH7 max option pain strike price $1,175 PUTS with OI 4,572 contracts

Gold: OGJ7 max option pain strike price $1,400 CALLS with OI 9,838 contracts

Gold: OGJ7 max option pain strike price $1,300 CALLS with OI 8,264 contracts

Gold: OGJ7 max option pain strike price $1,500 CALLS with OI 7,617 contracts

Gold: OGJ7 max option pain strike price $1,350 CALLS with OI 6,788 contracts

Gold: OGJ7 max option pain strike price $1,525 CALLS with OI 5,424 contracts

Gold: OGJ7 max option pain strike price $1,450 CALLS with OI 5,307 contracts

Gold: OGM7 max option pain strike price $1,500 CALLS with OI 22,780 contracts

Gold: OGM7 max option pain strike price $1,800 CALLS with OI 17,970 contracts

Gold: OGM7 max option pain strike price $2,100 CALLS with OI 15,718 contracts

Gold: OGM7 max option pain strike price $1,600 CALLS with OI 14,340 contracts

Gold: OGM7 max option pain strike price $2,200 CALLS with OI 12,323 contracts

Gold: OGM7 max option pain strike price $1,900 CALLS with OI 11,315 contracts

Gold: OGM7 max option pain strike price $1,700 CALLS with OI 6,068 contracts

Gold: OGZ7 max option pain strike price $1,600 CALLS with OI 19,801 contracts

Silver: SOG7 max option pain strike price $17.50 CALLS with OI 1,329 contracts

Silver: SOH7 max option pain strike price $30.00 CALLS with OI 2,310 contracts

Silver: SOH7 max option pain strike price $20.00 CALLS with OI 1,934 contracts


As you can see what really pops out regarding which market to trade and in what direction is price most likely to go in 2017 is… drum rolls please…

Price of GOLD to go higher!

Nothing is of course 100% sure thing and of course you need to do your own due diligence and time the right entry and exit out of your own trades!

For full analysis with commentary…
…VISIT original blog post at
https://investingpit.com/binary-options-trade-of-the-year-2017

108

Nice to see that 1st trading day after issuing our Binary Options Trade Of The Year 2017 – price of GOLD market is up around 1% :35:

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[B]InvestingPit FREE Trade Of The Year 2017 Update[/B]

With 18 days behind us since we issued here our FREE Binary Options Trade Of The Year 2017…
…let’s take a look how our trade is performing.

Of course we are talking about [B]gold price to go higher[/B] and [B]buying gold call options[/B] with expiry mid year and end of the year with prices being around $1210 after Jan 22nd 2017.

1st trading day after we issued our trade of the year (Jan 23rd 2017), price of gold went up around $10 to around $1220 then by end of the week dropped below $1190.

Anybody trading gold as a forex spot pair XAU/USD (gold vs USD) would probably get stopped out on this trade.

[B]Why?[/B]

Since price dropped almost 3% from Jan 23rd to 27th 2017 and since probably forex brokers let you use leverage greater than 33x (usually go up to 400x), we can safely assume forex spot traders would get burned on this trade and lose money (again).

But our trade of the year was to buy gold call options and fantastic feature of trading options is that no matter how much price goes against your options trade - you are not stopped out but only value of your options change.

For full analysis with commentary…
…[B]VISIT original blog post at [/B]
https://investingpit.com/investingpit-free-trade-of-the-year-2017-update

111

Today is option expiration for gold OGH7 & silver SOH7 futures options.

Almost 6,000 [B]gold $1250 calls[/B] could be enough motivation for price to be kept below this level.

Similar with [B]Silver [/B]Mar 2017 future contract price being kept below [B]$18.25[/B] but here “only” around 1200 [B]call options[/B] waiting to settle in the money today at 1.30pm NY time.

112

Euro Max Option Pain Analysis 6EH7

Euro Mar 2017 futures contracts had monthly options expiration day on Mar 3rd 2017 for 6EH7 euro options.

Let’s take a look at how and reason behind 97 pips jump in EURUSD last trading day going into quarterly currencies options expiration day.

Could 1.25 billion euro worth of 1.0550 & 1.0600 put options be good enough incentive for option writers to try to push price to settle last trading day over 95 pips higher?


Key level was 1.0550 since there we had Max Open Interest for Put options.

As you can see since US forex markets opened at 8am EST on Mar 3rd 2017…
…price of Euro Mar 2017 futures contract was NOT allowed to stay below 1.0550 for even 5 minutes.

Once this was succeeded, next goal was to get another 5,000 contracts of 1.0600 put options expired out of the money at 3pm.

They finally succeeded in this too with attack that started around 1h before options expired.

Settled price came at 1.06015 and option writers succeeded once again.

For full analysis with commentary…
…VISIT original blog post at
https://investingpit.com/euro-max-option-pain-analysis-6eh7

113

Hi
Forex Spot Options Daily Expiry 2016 May 9th

Daily forex spot option expiries at 10am New York time.

Option expiration date: May 9th 2016

Lets see which currency pairs have at least $1 billion worth of options expiring on this day.

Over 1 billion worth of options will expire at one strike price in forex spot market of: AUD (aussie dollar).