The Euro pattern remains the clearest in terms of pattern. As long as price is above 1.4744, we are bullish and looking for a push into the 1.50s.
As long as price is above 1.4744, we are bullish. Bullish potential varies according to the count but we’ll deal with that as the advance matures. Near term support should be strong in the 1.4826/45 zone. This is Fibonacci support as well as former resistance (resistance becomes support). A push through 1.4908 warrants a breakout play.
The USDJPY plummeted last night and today and in impulsive fashion. Price should remain below 109.72 but look for resistance at 108.94 (109). This is a former 4th wave as well as a Fibonacci level.
The triangle never led to a 5th wave terminal thrust as we had expected. The pattern for Cable (especially the beginning of the rally from the low) is not nearly as clear as the EURUSD pattern, but real life structure is not always perfect. As long as price is above 1.8608, a cautious bullish bias is warranted. There is a bearish count left that is valid. That count treats the rally from the low as a complex correction (W-X-Y) but wave 4 would be awfully large in relation to wave 2. Look for support in the 1.87/25 zone.
After we gave on the USDCHF bearish case yesterday, the pair finally rolled over…that’s the way things work sometimes though - which is why you need thick skin to be in this business. Regardless, a top is probably in place at 1.1040. A drop below 1.0842 would make the drop from the top 5 waves and confirm that a top is in.
The bigger picture in the USDCAD is eluding us so we’ll keep it simple today. Listen to the market - it has reversed with authority from a trendline that dates to 2002. Look for resistance in the 1.0475/94 zone (congestion).
The AUDUSD remains similar to the GBPUSD in terms of structure. That is, the rally out of the sideways consolidation (triangle) could be wave Y in a complex W-X-Y 4th wave. The reason that we are more accepting of this pattern for the AUDUSD than the GBPUSD is because of the ugly advance off of the low. That said, confidence in the bearish count is not high due to the disconnect from the USD weak theme that we see with the other pairs. Either way, weakness in the very short term is likely. Support begins at .8850 and should be strong at .8800/10 (if needed). It is worth noting that the AUDUSD made a bullish engulfing candle today and closed at the high of the day (both are bullish signals).
The NZDUSD continues its recovery. Although most likely corrective, the advance should continue into the .7374-.7400 zone next week. Price needs to remain above .7038 for this outlook to remain valid. .7160 (former resistance) should serve as support.
[B]Jamie Saettele writes [I]Forex Technicals: The Day Ahead[/I], Monday-Thursday (published at 6 pm EST), [I]Daily Technicals [/I] every weekday morning (9 am EST), COT analysis (published Monday mornings), and analysis of currency crosses throughout the week. He is also the author of Sentiment in the Forex Market.[/B]
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[B]Contact at <[email protected]>[/B]