Forex today: Daily analysis

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313

Market updates on August 13

13.08.2019

British average earnings index – 11:30 MT (8:30 GMT) time

US CPI and core CPI – 15:30 MT (12:30 GMT) time

EUR/USD has continued to consolidate between the resistance levels at 1.1210-1.1223 and strong support at 1.1177. Today’s release may bring volatility to the pair. If the USD gets stronger, the 1.1177 level may be broken and the next key level will be placed at the crossover of 50- and 100- period SMA at 1.1162. The next support will lie at 1.1147. Otherwise, if the pair manages to overcome the 1.1210-1.1223 range and sticks above the 200-period SMA, the next resistance will lie at 1.1240.

GBP/USD rose yesterday, but the further upward movement was limited by the upper border of the descending formation at 1.2106. The key levels from the downside lie at 1.2015 and 1.1993. If the GBP is supported, the retest of the 1.2106 level will be possible. The next resistance for the cable lies at 1.2145.

Gold inched higher on global tensions and uncertainties. The yellow metal has jumped above the $1,510 level and is moving up towards the $1,544 level. In case of softer risk sentiment, gold will slide back below the $1,510 level. The next support will lie at $1,495.

Now let’s look at the emerging markets. During the Asian trading session, Singapore’s GDP growth for the second quarter fell by 3.3%. Despite that, the Monetary Authority of Singapore does not plan to change its schedule of meetings until October. As a result, USD/SGD broke to its highest levels since 2017. At the moment, the pair is testing the resistance at 1.3885. The next key level will lie at 1.3910. In case of a reversal, pay attention to the support levels at 1.3859 and 1.3844.

314

Market updates on August 15

Check the charts: News for today

15.08.2019

US retail sales and core retail sales – 15:30 MT (12:30 GMT) time

Philly Fed manufacturing index for the US – 15:30 MT (12:30 GMT) time

The Australian dollar was supported today by the upbeat jobs data for Australia. The indicator increased by 41.1 thousand jobs (vs the forecast of 14.2 thousand). The aussie rose above the 50-period SMA towards the 0.6783 level, but failed to stick near its highs on the revised forecasts of the upcoming RBA’s rate cuts and retested the 50-period SMA. If the aussie weakens, the pair may fall to the 0.6746-0.6736 levels. After the breakout of this range, the pair may retest the 0.6677 level. If the Australian dollar sticks above the 50-period SMA, the chance of the retest of 0.6783 level will increase. If this level is broken, the next resistance will be placed at 0.6799.

EUR/USD is awaiting the release of the US indicators. The pair is trading with low volatility on H4. Pay attention to the 1.1150, 1.1157 (100-period SMA) and 1.1166 levels, which may be reached if the releases disappoint the market. From the downside, the key levels will lie at 1.1142, 1.1133 and 1.1116.

USD/JPY spiked towards the 106.74 level, but then immediately moved down to the 50-period SMA on the 4-hour chart. At the moment of writing the pair has been testing the strong support at 105.8 on H4. In case of a risk-off situation, pay attention to the next support level at 105.52. If the USD is supported, the 106.32-106.22 levels will be in focus.

315

Market updates on August 14

14.08.2019

Key events ahead:

British CPI – 11:30 MT (8:30 GMT) time

Yesterday the US trade representatives had a productive phone call with China, after which Washington announced that it was delaying the 10% tariffs on some of the Chinese goods. China, in its turn, confirmed that the trade talks between the two leading economies were expected to continue in September. The news boosted the risk sentiment and shook the market impressively. USD/JPY tested the 106.95-107.05 highs (the levels remained untouched since August 6) on the news and corrected to the downside facing the 106.31 support level. From the downside, pay attention to the support levels at 105.99 and 105.8. If bulls push the pair higher, it will rise towards the 106.62 level. After the breakout, the next resistance will lie at 106.74. The next key zone for bulls will lie at 106.95-107.05.

GBP/USD has been supported by the higher-than-expected CPI data. If the British pound strengthens more, the cable will break the upper border of the range at 1.2073 and test the resistance at 1.2098. If this level is broken, the next resistance will lie at 1.2145. In case of the pound’s weakness, GBP/USD will slide below the 1.2047 level. The next support will lie at 1.2015.

USD/CNH slid below the 7 level on the softer US-China trade relations. However, after the weaker indicators for China released during the Asian trading session, the pair reversed towards the support-turned-resistance level at 7.0436. Pay attention to the 7.0743 level which will be in focus if risk-off sentiment appears. Alternatively, the support at 7.0066 followed by the 6.9894 level will be in focus.

Despite the better-than-expected wage price index for Australia, AUD/USD has tested the ground below the 50-period SMA. If it continues to fall, the 0.6763 level will be reached. After that, the aussie will be vulnerable to the fall towards the 0.6749 level. If the risk sentiment increases, the test of the resistance level at 0.6799 will be possible. The next one will lie at 0.6817.

316

5 important events this week will bring us!

More at: News on crypto for this week.

19.08.2019

Canadian CPI (Wed, 15:30 MT (12:30 GMT) time) – According to forecasts, the indicator will advance by 0.1%. Higher figures will be appreciated by the CAD bulls.

FOMC Meeting minutes (Wed, 21:00 MT (19:00 GMT) time) – We will wait for the release, as look for more hints regarding the future rate decisions by the Fed. In case of more hawkish hints, the USD will be supported.

New Zealand’s retail sales (Fri, 1:45 MT (22:45 GMT) time) – We anticipate the level of retail sales to increase by 0.1%. If the actual figures are higher, the NZD will rise.

Canadian core retail sales (Fri, 15:30 MT (12:30 GMT) time) – The indicator is expected to decline by 0.1%. Higher figures will be positive for the CAD.

Speech by the Fed Chair Powell (Fri, 17:00 MT (14:00 GMT) time) – If the Fed Chair sounds hawkish, the USD will go up.

Hot news:

The US plans to postpone restrictions that the Trump administration has imposed on China’s Huawei Technologies Co. It increased the risk-on sentiment in the markets.

Oil prices jumped on the news that Saudi Arabian oil field was attacked by the drone.

On the Brexit front, the government preparations to the no-deal Brexit were leaked. As a result, Jeremy Corbyn plans to bring opposition parties together next week to discuss the prevention of a no-deal Brexit.

317

Is there a chance for the NZD?

More at: An opportunity for the NZD

21.08.2019

New Zealand is going to release the level of quarterly retail sales on August 23, at 1:45 MT time.

The indicator of retail sales shows the change in the total value of sales at the retail level. Traders pay attention to it as it is one of the primary measures of consumer spending. During the previous release, the indicator advanced by 0.7%. The figures came out higher than the expectations of 0.6%. Despite that, the NZD weakened.

• If the level of retail sales is greater than expected, the NZD will go up;

• If the level of retail sales is weaker than expected, the NZD will go down.

318

Market updates on August 22

Check the charts: News for today

22.08.2019

EUR/USD was supported by better-than-expected PMIs for the Eurozone. The pair has been testing the resistance at 1.1106. If this level is broken, we will focus on the next resistance at 1.1114. Next, the bullish pressure may be limited by the 1.1136 level. It is recommended to pay attention to the updates on the situation in Italy, as the political uncertainties there keep being strong. Today the Italian President Sergio Mattarella will meet with the parties in an effort to make a new governing coalition for a country. If the talks fail, the euro may fall down. The first level from the downside lies at 1.1080. After that, it is recommended to pay attention to the 1.1069 level.

While the chance of the no-deal Brexit remains high, the pressure to the British pound intensifies. Today, the British Prime Minister Boris Johnson and the French President Emmanuel Macron are going to meet to discuss the possibility of a no-deal Brexit. The cable is currently trading above the 100-period SMA on H4, close to the resistance line at 1.2140. The next key level will lie at 1.2154. After that the retest of the 1.2174 level seems possible. From the downside, you need to pay attention to the support at 1.2118. If bears pull GBP/USD lower, the next key support will be placed at 1.21 (50-period SMA).

NZD/USD has tested the lowest levels since 2016. On H4, bears tried to pull the pair below the 0.6377 level. If the kiwi continues to weaken against the USD, reaching the support at 0.6339 seems possible. In case of the reversal, pay attention to the 0.6419 level.

319

Market updates on August 23

More at: News for today

23.08.2019

Key events ahead:

Canada’s core retail sales – 15:30 MT (12:30 GMT)

Speech by the Fed Chair Powell at Jackson Hole Symposium – 17:00 MT (14:00 GMT)

During the Asian trading session, the comments by the Governor of the Reserve bank of New Zealand Adrian Orr supported the New Zealand dollar. He said that the rate cut by 50 basis points reduced the probability of another one soon. On H4, NZD/USD has risen towards the resistance at 0.6391 and corrected. If bears continue to drag the pair down, the first support for it will lie at 0.6363. Alternatively, if the pair retests the 0.6391 level, the next one will lie at 0.6419 (50-period SMA).

EUR/USD is awaiting the speech by the Fed Chair Jerome Powell. If he provides hawkish comments on the current situation in the economy and reassures the rate cut expectations, the USD will get stronger. In this case, the 1.1065 level will be broken and bears will try to pull EUR/USD lower towards the next support at 1.1028. If he is dovish, the pair will rise up to the resistance at 1.1088. The next key levels will lie 1.1106-1.1114.

USD/CAD inched higher on the news that the European Union will stop the import of some Canadian products from September. After the test of the 1.3325 level, the pair slid to the support at 1.3311. If the CAD is supported today by higher-than-expected core retail sales, the current support will be broken, and the next support will lie at 1.33. Alternatively, pay attention to the 1.3325 level. In case of a breakout of that level, the next resistance will lie at 1.3338.

Gold may move on the comments by the Fed Chair, too. At the moment it trades in a range between the $1,504 and $1,494 levels. Dovish comments by Mr. Powell may push the price of the yellow metal higher to the $1,504 level. If it is broken, the next resistance will lie close to the 50-period SMA at $1,508. In case of strong bullish pressure, there will be a possibility of reaching the $1,516 level. From the downside, after the breakout of the $1,494 level, the next one will lie at 1,490.

320

Market updates on August 26

Check the charts: News for today

26.08.2019

Key events ahead:

US core durable goods orders – 15:30 MT (12:30 GMT) time

The escalation of the trade war between the US and China has shaken the markets a lot. On Friday, China announced additional tariffs on $75 billion of American goods, including soybeans, automobiles, and oil. It did not take a long time for US President Donald Trump to respond as the US administration hit back with more tariffs on Chinese imports afterward and called for American companies to exit China’s market. The risk-weighted currencies fell after the market opened, but managed to take back their positions on the comments that China wants to resolve the trade dispute with the US.

AUD/USD tested the 0.6688 level but rebounded to the resistance at 0.6760. If bulls manage to break this level, the next resistance will lie at 0.6776. On the other hand, if the risk sentiment fades again, the pair will retest the 0.6688 level. The next support will lie at 0.6677.

USD/JPY slid below the 104.73 level on H4 but immediately rebounded upwards to the resistance level at 106.03. In case of a breakout of this level, pay attention to the next key resistance at 106.23, which lies close to the crossover of 50- and 100- period SMAs. From the downside, it is recommended to pay attention to the 105.05 level. If the Japanese yen retest it, the chance of the fall to the lowest levels since January’s flash crash at 104.73 will increase.

Gold gapped up to its highest levels since 2013. The yellow metal has tested the highs at $1,555. Softer risk sentiment pulled it lower to the support at $1,525. The next key support for the price of gold will be placed at $1,508.8 (50-period SMA). However, as traders remain cautious today, it is recommended to keep an eye on the $1,555 level, which may be retested if risk-off sentiment increases.

USD/CNH jumped to the fresh highs at 7.17 on the escalation of the trade conflict between the US and China. If the pair reverses, the first support at 7.0917 will be in focus. Bulls, on the other hand, will be looking for a retest of the 7.17 level.

USD/TRY has risen from 5.7553 to 6.2850 during the flash crash, which occurred at the Asian trading session. It happened due to the Japanese investors who cut risk assets. The price immediately returned close to the 5.8066 level, which currently serves as a resistance for the pair. From the downside, the first support lies at 5.7325.

321

5 important events this week will bring us!

27.08.2019

ANZ Business confidence of New Zealand (Thu, 4:00 MT (1:00 GMT) time) – Higher-than-expected figures will push the NZD up.

Private capital expenditure of Australia (Thu, 4:30 MT (1:30 GMT) time) – According to the forecasts, the indicator will advance by 0.4%. If the actual level outperforms the forecasts, the AUD will rise.

US preliminary GDP (Thu, 15:30 MT (12:30 GMT) time) - The indicator is expected to increase by 2%. If the actual level is higher, the USD will be supported.

Canadian GDP (Fri, 15:30 MT (12:30 GMT) time) – Analysts expect the Canadian GDP growth to advance by 0.1%. The higher-than-expected level will be appreciated by the USD bulls.

Personal spending of the US (Fri, 15:30 MT (12:30 GMT) time) – The level of personal spending is forecast to advance by 0.5%. As usual, higher figures may push the greenback up.

322

Market updates on August 28

28.08.2019

The governor of the Reserve bank of New Zealand made some remarks on keeping the NZD weaker. As a result, NZD/USD inched lower to the 0.6334. The pair has been trading at the lowest level since 2015. If this level is broken, the next support will lie below the lower border of the descending channel at 0.6297. If the pair recovers, the first resistance level will lie at 0.6366. After the break of this level, the resistance at 0.6391 will be in focus.

Brexit news continues to move the pound. Reportedly, the Queen will be asked to prorogue parliament. She is expected to make a speech on that matter on October 14. That means the opposition parties will have a little time to organize. GBP/USD plunged below the 1.2211 level on the news. The next support levels will lie at 1.2171 and 1.2147. From the upside, pay attention to the 1.2293 level, which will be broken in case of a reversal.

After the slide towards the $1,532 level, the price of gold managed to restore its positions. It is currently moving towards the resistance at $1,544. If this level is broken, the retest of $1,555 will be possible. If the risk-on sentiment increases, the price will slide downwards to the support at $1,532. After the breakout, the price will fall as far as the $1,525 level will be reached.

323

Market updates on August 29

29.08.2019

US preliminary GDP – 15:30 MT (12:30 GMT) time

After correcting to the 1-2235-1.2249 levels on H4, GBP/USD moved lower. The cable has tested the ground below the 50-period SMA at the 1.2194 level. If this level is broken, the next support in focus will be placed at 1.2171. In case of an upside movement, we will be looking for a retest of the 1.2213 level. After that, the retest of the levels placed between 1.2235 and 1.2249 will be in focus.

EUR/USD has been trading between 1.1073 and 1.1086 levels. If the USD gets stronger on today’s release, the pair will slide below the 1.1073 level. The next support for the pair will be placed at 1.1065. The further downward movement will be limited by the lower border of a long-term symmetric triangle. On the other hand, bulls will pay attention to the 1.1086 level. If it is broken, the next resistance level will lie at 1.1095 (50-period SMA).

USD/JPY is looking for a break of 50-period SMA and 106.22 level on the more risky sentiment. Buyers may focus on the next level at 106.4 if the current resistance is broken. The next key level will lie at 106.6. From the downside, the first support level will be placed at 105.82. The break of this level will make the pair vulnerable to a fall towards the 105.64-105.51 levels.

324

How will the RBA affect the aussie?

Check the economic calendar: The AUD may move on the news

30.08.2019

The Reserve bank of Australia (RBA) will publish its statement and announce the official rate on September 3, at 7:30 MT time.

The market is assessing the chance of a rate cut during the upcoming meeting. Analysts are sure that the central bank of Australia will ease its monetary policy soon due to the global economic instability. However, not all of them expect September’s meeting to be the crucial one for the RBA. Those who don’t see a rate cut in September suggest waiting for more indicators and negative news. This data will help the policymakers of the bank to determine their next step. Others think that the Reserve bank of Australia should cut the rate immediately due to the global uncertainties. Anyway, the tone of the RBA Governor Philip Lowe will be in focus, as traders will be looking for hints on the future rate decisions.

• If the RBA is hawkish, the AUD will rise;

• If the RBA is dovish, the AUD will fall.

325

5 important events this week will bring us!

02.09.2019

RBA rate statement (Tue, 7:30 MT (4:30 GMT) time) – We anticipate the Reserve bank of Australia to keep the interest rate unchanged at 1%. At the same time, we will be looking for more hints on further decisions, as the market expects more rate cuts until the end of this year.

Canada’s trade balance (Wed, 15:30 MT (12:30 GMT) time) – According to the forecasts, the difference in value between exported and imported goods will reach 0.2 billion. A higher level will boost the CAD.

Inflation report hearings by the BOE (Wed, 16:15 MT (13:15 GMT) time) – If the Bank of England governor is hawkish, the GBP will be supported.

BOC rate statement (Wed, 17:00 MT (14:00 GMT) time) – The interest rate is forecast to remain at 1.75%. The attention will be on the tone of the central bank. As usual, more hawkish comments will be appreciated by the CAD bulls.

US jobs data (Fri, 15:30 MT (12:30 GMT) time) – The level of non-farm payrolls is expected to advance by 168 thousand jobs. At the same time, average hourly earnings will increase by 0.3% and the unemployment rate will likely remain at the same level of 3.7%. If the actual level of NFP and average hourly earnings are higher and the unemployment rate is lower than the forecasts, the USD will rise.

Hot news:

The United States and China imposed new tariffs on each other’s goods. The 15% tariffs by the US on the part of $300 billion goods was confirmed by Donald Trump during the weekend. At the same time, the retaliatory step came from China with a target of $75 billion in US goods. It pulled the risk sentiment in the market down.

The series of court hearings, which plan to stop the British PM Boris Johnson’s prorogation of the parliament may affect the strength of the British pound. The first one is due tomorrow, so pay attention to the news. It’s worth to remember that the parliament will return on Tuesday and opposition lawmakers are expected to propose legislation to force the government to postpone Brexit.

326

Market updates on September 3

03.09.2019

American ISM Manufacturing PMI – 17:00 MT time (14:00 GMT)

The EURUSD pair keeps struggling. On the daily chart, it has already crossed the support at 1.0965 targeting new lows. For intraday trading, we need to consider the H4 chart. The next support is at 1.0934. A break below it will cause a decline to 1.0887. If the actual release of ISM Manufacturing PMI is weaker than the forecast, there is a chance that the fall will be limited. If the pair is able to recover, previous supports will become levels of resistance.

Parliament is due to debate an emergency plan to take control of the legislation to stop a no-deal Brexit on October 31.

On the daily chart of GBPUSD, the pair hit the crucial level of 1.20. Although such indicators as MACD and Awesome Oscillator signal a reversal, the pair has been slowing down. The next support is at 1.1986. If the pair closes below it, we can anticipate a further fall. A rebound will push the pair to 1.2020.

The Australian dollar has been strengthening despite weaker actual reading of retail sales data and luck of hawkish comments by the RBA.

On the daily chart of AUDUSD, the pair rebounded from the support at 0.6689. The pair needs to break above 0.6735 to confirm the recovery. However, Moving Averages continue moving down. It signals a possible continuation of the downtrend. Thus, there are risks of the return to 0.6689.

327

Market updates on September 4

04.09.2019

Canadian Trade Balance data – 15:30 MT time (12:30 GMT)

BOC Rate Statement – 17:00 MT time (14:00 GMT)

On the daily chart of USDCAD, MACD indicator has formed a bearish divergence with the price. It signals the pair is turning down. If we take a look at H4, levels of support are placed at 1.3315, 1.3278 and 1.3251. If the CAD is boosted by the economic data, levels will be reached. However, if the central bank sounds dovish or the actual trade balance data is worse than the forecast, the fall will be limited. Previous supports will become resistances. If the pair stays above 1.3315, the resistances are at 1.3370 and 1.3373.

GBPUSD has strengthened on the Brexit news.

Although the British Parliament started working only yesterday, it managed to affect the British currency.

As the Parliament doesn’t have a lot of time to prevent the no-deal Brexit, today members are supposed to put forward a draft law that would force Mr. Johnson to delay Brexit until January 31, 2020. If the law passes, the Prime Minister will call the general election. Thus, the British currency will continue being highly volatile.

Up to now, the GBPUSD pair has been targeting the resistance at 1.2178. RSI indicator is about to cross the overbought area. However, the pair still has a chance to keep rising. If 1.2178 is broken, the next range of the resistance is 1.2214-1.2240.

If the pair moves down, supports are placed at 1.2117 and 1.2080.

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328

Just to keep you motivated

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329

Thanks!! I really appreciate it

330

Market updates on September 5

05.09.2019

Forex

The British pound keeps gaining on the Brexit updates. The Parliament passed the legislation both to block a hard no-deal Brexit and a general election.

GBPUSD has crossed the resistance at 1.2290. 50-day MA may become an additional barrier. If 50-day MA is broken, consider 1.2367 as the next target.

If the pair rebounds, look at 1.2216 and 1.2170.

Commodities

Gold turned down on the risk-on sentiment. Any positive sign in the Sino-American trade war improves the market sentiment. Parties announced a fresh round of talks in October. Moreover, China confirmed its willingness to achieve progress in the negotiations.

Currently, XAUUSD is at highs of 2013. Thus, a small correction is obvious. However, it doesn’t mean that the fall will prolong for a long time. Supports are placed at 1536 and 1519-1525.

Unlike gold, WTI is pushed by the risk-on sentiment. Nevertheless, risks of the decline exist. Downward pressure will pull WTI to supports at 55.30 and54.25.

Crude oil inventories data is published today at 18:00 MT time. If the release shows a decline in the number of barrels, WTI will move towards the range of 56.80-57.50.

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331

Market updates on September 6

Check the charts: Market updates on September 6

06.09.2019

Canadian jobs data – 15:30 MT time (12:30 GMT)

American jobs data – 15:30 MT time (12:00 GMT)

Fed Chair Powel Speaks - 19:30 MT time (16:30 GMT)

Forex

Traders are cautious awaiting the American jobs data. According to the forecast, in August, NFP gained 160K comparing to 164K a month before. Average Hourly Earnings and Unemployment Rate are anticipated to stay on hold. The forecast is not encouraging for the USD. However, the actual release is what actually will show the strength of the American currency.

Later in the evening, Fed chairman Mr. Powell speaks in Zurich. If the chair gives any hints on the future monetary policy, markets will be affected.

The US dollar index has been struggling ahead of the jobs release. If the NFP disappoints, the fall will continue. In the case of encouraging readings, depreciation of the greenback will be limited.

What majors to trade?

EURUSD continues trading in the downtrend but the weakness of the USD has been supporting the rise. If the USD keeps declining, the pair has a chance to reach 1.1065 and move above towards 1.1085. The strong USD will cause a reversal of the pair to 1.1025, 1.0986.

Canadian and American jobs data are to released at the same time. Traders should be careful trading USDCAD.

Up to now, the pair has been sliding because the forecast for the Canadian release is more optimistic than for the American one. The further direction will depend on the actual reading.

If the fall continues, the pair will cross the support range of 1.3198-1.3185. The next supports are at 1.3154 and 1.3118.

If the pair is able to recover, previous supports should be considered as resistances. If bulls keep the pair above 1.3198, the next important levels are 1.3234 and 1.3256.

Commodities.

The correction of the gold continues. Although the USD keeps weakening, the XAUUSD pair is moving down. The risk-on sentiment is the key factor that pulls the gold down.

Now, bears are trying to break the support at 1,508. If they succeed, the next targets are placed at 1,495 and 1,485. If the pair manages to recover, previous supports will be used as resistances. If the pair sticks above 1508, levels to watch are 1,519 and 1,527.

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6 Ways to Prevent Overtrading

If you ever risked without a clear edge in your trading – congratulations, you are overtrading. This habit is very addictive and can ruin your finances quickly. Try these techniques to stop overtrading:

  • Do not try to win back the money right after the loss.
  • Make a trading plan and keep to it. It will help you to discipline yourself.
  • Do not trade 24/7. You cannot be focused and effective without breaks. No need staring at charts non-stop. You may be bored to death, at best, and the worst-case scenario, you’ll take impulsive decisions you are going to regret.
  • Limit your profit and loss for a day. Train your will, stop even if you want more or feel frustrated because of a failure.
  • Decide on the number of trades you can make during the day. Stick to it.
  • Spare time for life without trading! Go out, run, paint, meet friends, and visit the family.

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