what a thread… asking on a forum about a different forum and then talking about oil like in lot of another threads… I think babypips is great forum even for this kind of discussion, stick here guys… more heads, more wisdom 
[B]WTI Moves Lower On Historic Inventory Level[/B]
[B]Fundamentals[/B]
WTI sold off on Wednesday as total crude oil inventory continued to build. The number of barrels in storage around the United States (U.S.) is a historic high, well above 500 million. The data was not all bad, as gasoline stocks showed a significant drawdown (reduction) of 4.642 million barrels, despite the strong outlook for gasoline demand this coming summer. The oversupply conundrum continues to weigh heavy on the market.
[B]Technicals[/B]
The 200 SMA (Simple Moving Average) is currently at $41.99 and has once again acted as a strong level of resistance. The rally is running out of momentum and looks to move down to the first support level of $38.47.
[B]What to expect today?[/B]
Key data out of the U.S. and the Baker Hughes Rig Count. Core Durable Goods are forecast to come out below the previous release. This confirms the weakness seen within the U.S. manufacturing sector. Jobless claims are forecast to be steady, any increase will be a worrying sign for the economy. The rig count will be of key interest to traders, as last week’s release saw an increase. A further increase in the figure will get the bears back into the market.
U.S. Core Durable Goods Orders (Month on Month) forecast -0.2%
U.S. Durable Goods Orders (Month on Month) forecast -2.9%
U.S. Initial Jobless Claims forecast 268K
Continuing Jobless Claims forecast 2230K
U.S. Services PMI forecast 49.7
Baker Hughes Rig Count forecast 387
[B]Developments [/B]
The head of International Energy Administration (IEA) stated that an agreement next month in Doha to freeze production will not produce any results. Only Saudi Arabia can resolve the oversupply problem by taking the lead and cutting production.
Oil Bulls getting nervous?
A busy week in oil saw some decent falls in price. Much of the recent rise in price has been down to the anticipation that the upcoming oil producers meeting in a couple of weeks in Doha, will see a freeze in production, but there’s certainly been news this week suggesting this won’t be the case. Saudi Arabia have said that if any country raises output (namely Iran), then it will not freeze production, thereby reducing the chances of an agreement. These comments sparked an immediate sell off. Meanwhile U.S. inventories rose again, Iran increased production, as did OPEC overall, and Russian figures for March show production at it’s highest level since the end of the Soviet Union in 1991. Looking at the Brent weekly chart, the hidden bearish divergence, above, is still in play. Let’s see if the sell off continues this week.
From my BLOG :
$36 in sight for Brent
The daily chart in Brent gives an indication of possible further falls to come. As highlighted, the daily candle broke the lower Bollinger band with a very decisive bearish candle. BB breaks can be a great area to time a reversal, but for this a reversal candle or pattern is needed. With a break as convicted as this, further falls often follow. It wouldn’t surprise me to see some retrace first, but £36 remains my initial target.
The 42.00 level along with the 200 day EMA have proven to be a good resistance zone for oil WTI.
Hi,
Let me share you my own strategy for trading in gold commodity
I am following this strategy successfully since last 2 years and made decent profit from this.
to know more in detail watch this complete video "Gold Commodity Strategy very simple - 2018"
Hi,
Let me share you my own strategy for trading in gold commodity
I am following this strategy successfully since last 2 years and made decent profit from this.
to know more in detail watch this complete video "Gold Commodity Strategy very simple - 2018"