French Election Moves To Round Two, What Could It Mean For The Euro?

The French have cast their votes and the numbers have been tallied. As had been predicted by the popular opinion polls, center-right UMP leader Nicolas Sarkozy and Socialist Party head SégolèneRoyal will move on to the second round of the French Presidential elections.

Scheduled for May 6th, the French public and trading community has already handicapped the possible outcomes. According to the Interior Ministry, Sarkozy received 31.1 percent of the vote while Royal won 25.8 percent. What’s more, an IPSOS opinion poll released late Sunday revealed Sarkozy is the favored candidate for round two with a commanding 54 percent against Royal’s 46 percent. However, regardless of the projections, the outcome is still far from certain; and pressure will build leading up to the results of the final vote. French nationals have already shown the significance this election has for them by turning out in near record numbers. Now it will be up to both candidates to vie for the centrist votes that were originally supporting François Bayrou.

Originally Posted April 16th:

For France, this election could bring about considerable changes in employment policy, taxes and EU relationships. However, the consequences of this vote will not be isolated to France alone. As a vocal critic of the ECB’s policies, Nicolas Sarkozy, the leading contender has been calling for the ECB to weaken Euro to boost growth. Although he is the more business friendly candidate, for this reason, a win by Sarkozy may not be initially taken as Euro positive. In the past decade, the EU community has grown increasingly interconnected so societal and economic issues have taken on greater meaning for the overall region. Considering the international importance of this vote, it is only natural for Euro traders to take an interest, especially as the currency hovers near multi-decade highs against the US dollar, Japanese yen and Swiss franc.

[B]The Top Contenders

   [B]        [/B] 
   [B]Ségolène  Royal[/B]

Nicolas Sarkozy

Euro Positive Short Term / Bearish Long Term

· Respects the ECB’s independence – only wants to see the ECB to focus more on economic growth, employment and social progress, instead of just inflation

   ·                 [B]Has Expressed No Opinion on        Euro Strength[/B]

   ·                 [B]Policies Focused on Improving        Labor Market and Raising Wages[/B]



Euro Bearish Short Term / Bullish Long Term

   ·                 [B]Blames ECB for Lack of Growth,        Wants to See them Weaken Euro [/B]

   ·                 [B]Calls to Withdraw ECB        Independence          [/B]

   ·                 [B]Protectionist        Leanings[/B]

   ·                 [B]Wants to Clamp down on        Immigration[/B]




Ms. Royal’s respect for the ECB’s independence suggests that she will not stop the central bank from doing what they think is best for the Eurozone economy. Compared to Sarkozy’s harsh criticism of the ECB, her win should be taken as Euro positive in the short term. However while she has outlined lofty goals to achieve as France’s first female President, she has done little to describe exactly how her socialist policies will be paid for. Even though her proposed reforms are aimed at helping to boost spending, they are also unfriendly to businesses.



Even though Mr. Sarkozy is considered the business friendly candidate, his protectionist leanings and vocal criticism of the ECB could make an initial win by him Euro negative. He has accused the ECB of focusing too much on inflation and not enough on growth, to the detriment of France. Has also suggested that the ECB should work to lower the value of the euro, since the currency appreciated nearly 30% in the past 5 years, in order to increase competitiveness. However as the market realizes that his words have more bark than bite and that the ECB will not be succumb to pressure by politicians so easily, the focus will return to his generous tax breaks for both the private and corporate sector.



   ·                 Member of the Socialist Party,        53

   ·                 Currently a regional premier of        Poitou-Charentes

   ·                 Outlined 100 goals to        accomplish if elected France's first female        President. 

   ·                 Criticized for having little        government experience and for perceived foreign policy gaffes.




· Leader of the center-right UMP, 52

   ·                 Has acted as both the Interior        Minister and Finance Minister under current President Jacques        Chirac.

   ·                 Considered the ‘business        friendly’ candidate.

   ·                 Received Chirac’s        endorsement.

   ·                 Involved in politics since the        age of 22.


           [B]How Do they Currently Stand? -        Opinion Polling Ratings


First Round (April 22) Second Round (May 6)

   ·                 CSA            25%                           CSA                   48%

   ·                 Ipsos           24%                   Ipsos         46.5%

   ·                 BVA            24%                            BVA            45%


        [B]How Do they Currently Stand? -        Opinion Polling Ratings


   First Round   (April 22)                              Second Round (May 6)

   ·                 CSA                   27%                         CSA           52%

   ·                 Ipsos                  29.5%                     Ipsos          53.5%

   ·                 BVA             28%                                BVA            55%

           [B]Key EU        Goals


   ·                 Wants a referendum on EU treaty        that takes the original text and adds a protocol emphasizing Europe's social ambitions.        

   ·                 Create a Euro-zone government        that promotes economic growth and common tax levels.        

   ·                 Wants to pursue a new EU-led        Middle East peace initiative.

        [B]Key EU        Goals


   ·                 Seeks to cull illegal        immigration and in turn integrate skilled foreign workers into French        society.

   ·                 Has shown a penchant for        protectionism when he used state funds to bail out French-firm        Alstrom.

   ·                 Mr. Sarkozy has been quoted as        saying that EU members that have lower tax rates than the old European        nations should not be eligible for EU        subsidies.


           [B]Domestic        Policies


Pro Business

· Wants to Increase Tax on Corporate Dividends and Capital Gains Basing it on Reinvested versus Paid out Profits

   ·                 [B]No Increase in General Taxes        for the Population[/B]


Anti Business

· Raise Minimum Wage

· Companies to Provide Severance of 90% of Salary for 1 year after Job Cuts

   ·                 [B]Extend 35 Hour Work Week to All        Sectors [/B]


        [B]Domestic        Policies


   [B]Pro        Business

· Aims to Reduce Personal Tax Rate from 60 to 50 Percent

· No Unemployment Benefits for People Rejecting Job Offers

· Tax Breaks for Corporations

· Right to Work More than 35 Hours a Week – Any Hours Worked Past 35 Hour Mark will be Free of Income Tax and Payroll Changes

   [B]Anti        Business

· Workers Retire When they Want

· Wants to Integrate More Skilled Workers into French Society

· In 2004, He Pushed Supermarket Chains to Lower Prices to Boost Spending



The campaigns of both Ségolène Royal and Nicolas Sarkozy differ as night and day. A win by Sarkozy, the more experienced contender could lead to short term Euro pain, but long term Euro gain. Previously entrusted with the goal of jumpstarting the French economy by President Chirac, Sarkozy has proven that he could deliver. A win by Segolene Royal on the other hand could lead to short term Euro gain but long term Euro pain. As proponent of raising the minimum wage and forcing companies to pay 90% of salary as severance, she could boost the well fare of French citizens at the expense of making businesses more efficient. Furthermore, since Ms. Royal’s socialist policies would not be made with the intention of helping corporations, Mr. Sarkozy’s business-friendly propositions are anticipated to send French equity markets higher, which may eventually help to boost the Euro as well. This will only come of course when traders have the confidence that Mr. Sarkozy will not endanger the independence of the ECB or if the ECB simply refuses to let them. Initially a vote for Sarkozy should send Euro lower, but given the more financially-responsible nature of his policy reforms, the sell-off will likely be brief.