From Preparation to Execution: My Journey in Forex Trading

[Jag757]

Preparing for the Trading Day

As a dedicated trader, preparing for the trading day is a crucial part of my routine. This preparation allows me to make informed decisions and stay ahead of the market. My process involves thorough analysis and a clear understanding of both technical and fundamental aspects of the market. Here’s how I approach my trading day and why it’s essential:

Establishing the Trend

Each day, one of my top priorities is to establish the market trend. This process involves recognizing that markets can have different trends over various timeframes. For instance, while the overall trend might be bullish in the long term, there could be a short-term bearish correction. To get a clear picture, I analyze key technical tools such as moving averages, trend lines, and Fibonacci retracement levels. Understanding these different trends helps me align my trades with the market’s momentum, which significantly boosts my chances of success. Knowing whether the market is generally bullish, bearish, or range-bound allows me to set realistic expectations and avoid trades that go against the dominant trend. By acknowledging both short-term and long-term trends, I can better navigate the market and make more informed trading decisions.

Technical Analysis

Technical analysis is at the heart of my trading preparation. I meticulously go through charts to identify key support and resistance levels, trend lines, and potential breakout points. This analysis helps me pinpoint where I am most likely to take a trade. By marking these critical levels in advance, I am prepared to act swiftly when the market reaches these points. This proactive approach eliminates hesitation and ensures that I am ready to execute trades at the optimal moments.

Fundamental Analysis and News

In addition to technical analysis, understanding the fundamentals is equally important. Each day, I review economic calendars and news sources to stay updated on upcoming events and reports that could impact the market. Key economic indicators, central bank announcements, and geopolitical developments can cause significant market movements. Being aware of these factors allows me to anticipate potential volatility and adjust my trading strategy accordingly. By incorporating both technical and fundamental analysis into my routine, I am better equipped to navigate the complexities of the market.

Why Preparation is Crucial

Preparation is not just about analyzing data; it’s about building confidence and discipline. Knowing ahead of time where I am most likely to take a trade allows me to remain calm and focused when the time comes to push the button. This foresight helps reduce emotional decision-making, which can be detrimental to trading success. By having a clear plan in place, I can approach each trading day with a structured mindset, ensuring that my actions are deliberate and well-thought-out.

In summary, preparing for the trading day through thorough technical and fundamental analysis is essential for making informed trading decisions. This preparation helps me establish the trend, identify key trading levels, and stay informed about market-moving events. Ultimately, it allows me to approach the market with confidence and precision, increasing my chances of trading success.

My sincere wish is that more people would consider adopting this approach. I know it can help most traders. I am sure some of you are already doing your own version of preparation.

J

[Jag757]

This is what I am looking at going into tomorrow’s trading. I am not expecting a large move but that could change in an instant. Be careful trading sloppy or slow market conditions. I will post live if I take a trade.

Analysis of GBP/USD for the Next Day’s Trading

Let’s analyze the GBP/USD pair across different time frames to prepare for the next day’s trading. We’ll examine key levels, trends, and indicators to form a comprehensive view.

1. Daily Chart Analysis

• Trend: The daily chart shows a clear downtrend with lower highs and lower lows. The price is moving within a descending channel, and the overall bias remains bearish.

• Key Levels:

• Resistance: Around 1.2800 (upper boundary of the descending channel).

• Support: Near 1.2600 (lower boundary of the channel).

• Indicators:

• ATR: The ATR indicates decreasing volatility, suggesting that large price swings are less likely in the immediate future.

• RSI: The RSI is approaching oversold territory, indicating potential for a short-term reversal or consolidation.

2. 4-Hour Chart Analysis

• Trend: The 4-hour chart also confirms the downtrend. The price has recently broken below the 50-period moving average, reinforcing the bearish sentiment.

• Key Levels:

• Resistance: Around 1.2750 (previous support turned resistance).

• Support: Near 1.2650 (recent low).

• Indicators:

• ATR: The ATR shows low volatility, consistent with the daily chart.

• RSI: The RSI is near the lower end, suggesting a potential for a bounce.

3. 1-Hour Chart Analysis

• Trend: The 1-hour chart shows the price consolidating after a sharp drop, forming a potential bearish flag pattern.

• Key Levels:

• Resistance: Around 1.2700 (upper boundary of the consolidation range).

• Support: Near 1.2650 (lower boundary of the range).

• Indicators:

• ATR: The ATR remains low, indicating that the market is consolidating.

• MACD: The MACD is showing bearish momentum but also signs of convergence, hinting at potential consolidation or a minor pullback.

4. 15-Minute Chart Analysis

• Trend: The 15-minute chart shows price action within a narrow range, indicating indecision in the market.

• Key Levels:

• Resistance: Around 1.2680 (recent highs within the range).

• Support: Near 1.2650 (recent lows within the range).

• Indicators:

• ATR: The ATR is extremely low, suggesting very tight price movement.

• MACD: The MACD on the 15-minute chart is flat, indicating lack of momentum.

Trading Plan

1. Short-Term (Intraday) Trades:

• Short Entry: Consider short positions if the price breaks below 1.2650 with a target near 1.2600.

• Long Entry: Consider long positions if the price breaks above 1.2700 with a target near 1.2750.

• Stop Loss: Set tight stop losses around 10-15 pips to manage risk effectively.

2. Medium-Term Trades:

• Short Entry: If the price continues to stay below 1.2750, consider adding to short positions with a target near the lower boundary of the daily descending channel around 1.2600.

• Long Entry: If the price shows strong bullish momentum and breaks above 1.2750, consider long positions with a target near the upper boundary of the descending channel around 1.2800.

• Stop Loss: Use ATR-based stop losses to adjust for volatility, setting stops around 20-30 pips from the entry.

3. Long-Term Trades:

• Bias: Overall bearish as long as the price remains within the descending channel on the daily chart.

• Key Focus: Monitor for potential trend reversals by watching for price action around key support levels (1.2600) and any significant changes in the ATR and RSI indicating increased volatility or a trend shift.

Conclusion

By analyzing the GBP/USD across multiple time frames and using key technical indicators, we can form a comprehensive trading plan. This approach helps in aligning trades with the overall market trend, managing risk effectively, and being prepared for various market conditions.

[Jag757]

Let’s take a look at the EUR/USD. It’s about in the same shape as the GBP/USD. I’m not expecting a big move coming up but we never know.

Analysis of EUR/USD for August 7, 2024

Daily Chart:

• Current Trend: The daily chart shows that the EUR/USD pair is consolidating within a descending wedge pattern. This pattern suggests potential for a breakout, but the direction is uncertain without a catalyst.

• Support and Resistance: The upper boundary of the wedge acts as resistance around 1.1060, while the lower boundary provides support around 1.0860. Price is currently near the upper resistance line, indicating a potential pullback or breakout test.

4-Hour Chart:

• Recent Price Action: The 4-hour chart shows a recent attempt to break above the upper wedge boundary, which has so far failed, resulting in a pullback.

• Moving Averages: The 21-period and 50-period moving averages are providing dynamic support and resistance levels, currently sitting around 1.0920 and 1.0880 respectively.

• Fibonacci Levels: The Fibonacci retracement levels drawn from the recent high to low indicate key levels to watch at 38.2% (1.0906), 50% (1.0934), and 61.8% (1.0962).

1-Hour Chart:

• Consolidation Zone: The 1-hour chart indicates consolidation between 1.0900 and 1.0930. A breakout of this range could signal the next directional move.

• ATR (Average True Range): Low ATR values suggest reduced volatility, implying that a significant move might require an external catalyst such as economic data releases.

15-Minute Chart:

• Immediate Support and Resistance: On the 15-minute chart, immediate resistance is observed at 1.0930, with support at 1.0900. This tight range suggests caution and waiting for a breakout confirmation before entering a trade.

Key Economic Events for August 7, 2024:

1. GBP:

• RICS House Price Balance (July) at 7:01 PM EDT.

2. USD:

• EIA Crude Oil Inventory at 10:30 AM EDT.

• Consumer Credit (June) at 3:00 PM EDT.

Trading Strategy:

• Bullish Scenario: A breakout above 1.0930 with increased volume and ATR could signal a long entry, targeting the next resistance at 1.0960 (61.8% Fibonacci level) and potentially higher.

• Bearish Scenario: A break below 1.0900 with momentum could indicate a short entry, targeting support levels at 1.0880 and lower.

Conclusion:

The EUR/USD pair is currently in a consolidation phase within a larger descending wedge pattern. Low volatility suggests that a significant move may require a catalyst, such as the upcoming economic data releases. Traders should watch for breakout confirmation and use ATR for position sizing to manage risk effectively.

[Jag757]

One again I am posting a live trade. For good or bad I am on record as always. Just pasts the trend line and moving long. I have a target around the 61.8 retracement from the last move downward. I used the ATR to set stop loss. I set stop loss at two times the ATR and then I set profit at 2:1 and it fell right at the 61.8. I will keep you advised and post the outcome, good or bad.

Update: This ended up being a very slow painful trade. Price went against me and I ended up being in the trade for hours just to make a few pips.

[Jag757]

So let me add to this, I prepare this for my own trading every night, it’s part of my routine. It makes me a better trader. A few things to add here. Last night I got into a trade earlier than I would ever normally do and it was a mistake. Because of it, I put a note on one of my screens and it reads: No Confirmation, No Volume, No Trade!!! Loser! I was saying that to myself. After almost 20 years of trading I know better than to take stupid trades, even if they work out in the end.

I tell you this because if I had waited for one more candle for confirmation, I would not have gotten into the trade at all. So when my analysis says, if we break this point or that, it means that we must have volume in the market, it can’t just trickle across the line. Wait for confirmation. There is no need to jump into any trade. FOMO, fear of missing out is real, but follow whatever rules you have for yourself.

J

GBP/USD Technical Analysis for August 8, 2024

Overview

The GBP/USD pair is currently exhibiting a bearish trend across multiple timeframes, indicating downward momentum. Here’s a detailed analysis based on various technical indicators and chart patterns.

Daily Chart Analysis

• Trend: Bearish

• Support Level: 1.2675

• Resistance Level: 1.2850

• Indicators:

• Moving Averages: Trading below the 200-day moving average, reinforcing the long-term bearish trend.

• RSI (Relative Strength Index): At 36.99, indicating the pair is nearing oversold conditions.

• MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): Bearish, with the MACD line below the signal line.

The daily chart shows the GBP/USD pair is trading below the 200-day moving average, suggesting a long-term bearish trend. The pair is also approaching a significant support level at 1.2675, which, if broken, could lead to further downside.

4-Hour Chart Analysis

• Trend: Bearish

• Support Level: 1.2685

• Resistance Level: 1.2780

• Indicators:

• Moving Averages: The pair is trending downward within a descending channel.

• RSI: 37.87, still in bearish territory but nearing oversold conditions.

• MACD: Bearish, with increasing negative histogram bars.

On the 4-hour chart, the GBP/USD pair is trending downward within a descending channel. The support level at 1.2685 is crucial and if it holds, we might see a temporary bounce.

15-Minute Chart Analysis

• Trend: Bearish to Neutral

• Support Level: 1.2690

• Resistance Level: 1.2725

• Indicators:

• Moving Averages: The pair is in a consolidation phase near the support level.

• RSI: 39.89, suggesting mild bearish sentiment.

• MACD: Bearish but showing signs of potential reversal with decreasing negative histogram bars.

The 15-minute chart indicates that the pair is currently consolidating near the support level at 1.2690. This suggests potential for short-term reversal or continuation depending on upcoming price action.

News Calendar for August 8, 2024

• 6:00 AM EDT: UK Halifax House Price Index (MoM)

• 8:30 AM EDT: US Initial Jobless Claims

• 10:00 AM EDT: US Wholesale Inventories (MoM)

• 10:30 AM EDT: EIA Natural Gas Storage Change

The news releases, particularly the US Initial Jobless Claims at 8:30 AM EDT, could significantly impact the GBP/USD pair, adding to the volatility during the trading session.

Trading Strategy

Key Levels

• Support: 1.2685 (4-Hour), 1.2675 (Daily)

• Resistance: 1.2725 (15-Minute), 1.2780 (4-Hour), 1.2850 (Daily)

Suggested Trades

1. Breakout Trade:

• Entry: Below 1.2675

• Stop Loss: 15 pips above the entry point

• Target: 30 pips below the entry point, aligning with a 2:1 risk-reward ratio.

2. Reversal Trade:

• Entry: Near 1.2685 if the support holds

• Stop Loss: 15 pips below the entry point

• Target: 30 pips above the entry point, ensuring a 2:1 risk-reward ratio.

Conclusion

The GBP/USD pair is currently in a bearish trend across multiple time frames, with critical support levels approaching. Traders should watch these levels closely and be prepared for potential breakouts or reversals based on price action and upcoming economic data releases.

[Jag757]

The daily chart is the only worth looking at on the EUR/USD. This pair is so flat I have no clue at all which direction it may go. We shall see.

Daily Chart Analysis

1. Trend Analysis:

• The daily chart shows a bullish trend with the price above the 21, 50, and 200-period moving averages.

• The price recently made higher highs and is consolidating around significant resistance.

2. Support and Resistance:

• Key support level is around 1.0840.

• Major resistance level is around 1.1030.

3. Indicators:

• ATR: Around 0.0066, indicating higher volatility.

• RSI: At 59.31, suggesting bullish momentum.

• MACD: Shows bullish momentum but with a possibility of consolidation.

4-Hour Chart Analysis

1. Trend Analysis:

• The trend is currently bullish as indicated by the moving averages (21, 50, and 200). The price is above these moving averages.

• The price recently made a higher high and is currently consolidating.

2. Support and Resistance:

• Immediate support is around 1.0925 (50% Fibonacci retracement level).

• Resistance is at 1.0985, just above the recent high and the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level.

3. Indicators:

• ATR: Around 0.0011, indicating moderate volatility.

• RSI: At 46.25, suggesting a neutral momentum.

• MACD: Indicates a possible bearish crossover, which could signal a potential correction.

15-Minute Chart Analysis

1. Trend Analysis:

• Short-term trend appears to be consolidating with the price moving around the moving averages.

2. Support and Resistance:

• Immediate support is at 1.0940.

• Resistance is at 1.0980.

3. Indicators:

• ATR: Around 0.0008, indicating lower volatility.

• RSI: At 53.97, indicating neutral momentum.

• MACD: Indicates a possible bearish crossover, suggesting a potential short-term pullback.

Summary and Trading Plan

• Daily Chart: The trend remains bullish with consolidation near significant resistance. A break above 1.1030 would confirm further bullish momentum. Be cautious of potential resistance at this level.

• 4-Hour Chart: The price is in a bullish trend but consolidating. Watch for a break above 1.0985 for further bullish confirmation. Support at 1.0925 could be a good entry point for a long position.

• 15-Minute Chart: The price is consolidating. Look for a breakout above 1.0980 for a potential short-term bullish move. Immediate support at 1.0940 could serve as a stop-loss level.

Recommendations

• Monitor the daily and 4-hour charts for broader trend direction.

• Use the 15-minute chart for precise entry and exit points.

• Consider placing a stop-loss below key support levels to manage risk.

• Be cautious of major resistance levels on the daily chart, which could act as significant turning points.

[Jag757]

So I am posting to this thread almost every night and I have no idea if anyone is reading the report or not. If you all are find value in this analysis, then I will continue to post it because I prepare it for myself anyway. But if nobody wants to acknowledge it or participate, then there is no need to post it.

J

[Jag757]

GBP/USD 4-Hour Chart Analysis:

The GBP/USD is currently wedged between a descending trend line and a downward-sloping channel on the 4-hour chart, indicating a period of consolidation and indecision in the market.

• Key Levels: The trend line is acting as resistance, while the lower boundary of the channel serves as support.

• Potential Breakout Scenarios:

• Bullish Breakout: A break above the trend line could signal a bullish reversal or retracement within the channel. Confirmation through a retest of the trend line as new support would strengthen this scenario.

• Bearish Continuation: A rejection at the trend line would likely lead to a continuation of the bearish trend, with the price moving toward the lower boundary of the channel.

• Break Below the Channel: If the price breaks below the channel, it would confirm a continuation of the downtrend, potentially leading to a sharper decline.

Current Outlook:

The market is in a state of indecision, and the next significant move will likely be determined by a breakout from this wedge pattern. Traders should watch for clear signals before committing to a position, with a focus on how the price interacts with the trend line and channel boundaries.

This summary provides a focused view of the key elements on the 4-hour chart, outlining potential scenarios and what to watch for next.

[Jag757]

EUR/USD 4-Hour Chart Analysis:

• Moving Averages: The price is currently above the 50-period and 200-period moving averages, suggesting that the overall trend on the 4-hour chart is bullish, despite recent consolidation.

• Fibonacci Retracement Levels: The recent pullback appears to be respecting key Fibonacci retracement levels, particularly the 38.2% and 50% levels, which are commonly used as support in a bullish trend.

• Key Levels:

• The price is testing support around the 1.0975 level, which aligns with the 50% Fibonacci retracement. This could be a critical level to watch, as a bounce here might signal a continuation of the upward move.

• Resistance is clearly defined at the recent highs near 1.1060.

• ATR: The ATR shows moderate volatility on this timeframe.

• RSI: The RSI is near 50, indicating a neutral sentiment. This suggests that the market could go either way depending on the next major move.

• MACD: The MACD is showing signs of a potential bearish crossover, with the MACD line approaching the signal line from above. This could indicate weakening bullish momentum or the start of a bearish correction.

EUR/USD 15-Minute Chart Analysis:

• Moving Averages: On the 15-minute chart, the price is trading below the 21, 50, and 200-period moving averages, which points to short-term bearish momentum.

• Fibonacci Retracement Levels: The price is hovering around the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level after a recent drop, which often acts as a strong level of support or resistance.

• Key Levels:

• The support at around 1.0990 is holding for now, but continued pressure might see it break.

• Resistance is present around the 1.1020 level, aligning with the 50% Fibonacci retracement.

• ATR: The ATR is lower on this timeframe, indicating less volatility compared to the 4-hour chart.

• RSI: The RSI is slightly above 50, which suggests a mild bullish sentiment, though it’s not strong enough to confirm a reversal.

• MACD: The MACD shows a bearish divergence and is currently moving below the zero line, indicating downward momentum.

Summary:

• 4-Hour Chart: The EUR/USD is in a consolidation phase, with the price holding above key support levels around the 1.0975 area. A break below this could lead to a deeper correction, while a bounce might signal a continuation of the broader uptrend.

• 15-Minute Chart: The short-term picture is bearish, with the price struggling to break above key resistance levels. However, if support at 1.0990 holds, a short-term reversal could be possible.

Key Focus:

• Watch the 1.0975 support on the 4-hour chart for a potential bounce or break.

• On the 15-minute chart, keep an eye on the 1.0990 level for short-term direction.

This analysis gives a good overview of the current market conditions for EUR/USD across different timeframes, helping you to anticipate potential moves and plan trades accordingly.

[Christopher-Shevlin]

@Jag757

This analysis gives a good overview of the current market conditions for EUR/USD across different timeframes, helping you to anticipate potential moves and plan trades accordingly.

Nope, I’m sorry my friend it really doesn’t. Retail ‘traders’ using TA will always have negative EV. You’re trading against brokers and MM who have millions at their disposal. Maybe, just MAYBE if you use level 2 access and order flow you might have a very small edge. Drawing a few lines on chart, I hate to break it to you but you won’t make any money this way.

You can gain a bigger edge selling options, I’m not here to sell you anything, I don’t give a crap really, I’m just telling it like it is based on about 20yrs worth of experience. Sell premium my good friend, it’s the only way.

[Jag757]

@Christopher-Shevlin

Nope, I’m sorry my friend it really doesn’t. Retail ‘traders’ using TA will always have negative EV

Not going to say you are wrong, I have not had a negative month or year since my first year of trading. But, am I making the kind of money I should? Probably not! I do the best analysis I can with the charts and fundamentals available. It seems to work. Thanks for your input!

[Thubay]

Hey Jag, thanks for taking the time to share your analysis. The thread looks great. With 20 years of trading experience, can you recommend some good trading mentors who have helped you grow?

[Jag757]

@Thubay

can you recommend some good trading mentors who have helped you grow?

Thanks for participating. First, thanks for recognizing the effort and second, no, I really can’t recommend anyone as a mentor. I have had a few people help me out along the way. I took a few classes in the beginning but,I never really had a mentor. Getting involved in forums and groups has helped.

[Jag757]

Summary of EUR/USD Setup:

• 4-Hour Chart: The EUR/USD pair is forming a symmetrical triangle pattern, indicating a consolidation phase. This setup often precedes a breakout, which could lead to a significant move in either direction. The price is above the 50 and 200-period moving averages, suggesting a generally bullish bias, but the RSI is neutral, reflecting indecision.

• 1-Hour Chart: The symmetrical triangle is more prominent here, with the price tightly coiled, awaiting a potential breakout. The moving averages are converging, indicating a lack of momentum at the moment. Fibonacci levels are providing immediate support and resistance levels, with the 38.2% level being a key area to watch.

Potential Scenarios:

• Bullish Breakout:

If the price breaks above the upper trendline of the triangle, it could signal a continuation of the uptrend. Key resistance levels to watch would be the recent highs around 1.1095 and the 23.6% Fibonacci extension level.

• Bearish Breakout:

Conversely, if the price breaks below the lower trendline, it might suggest a deeper pullback. The 50% Fibonacci retracement level around 1.0920 could be the first target, followed by the 61.8% retracement level near 1.0875.

Actionable Steps:

• Wait for the Breakout: Since the symmetrical triangle is a continuation pattern, it’s prudent to wait for a clear breakout before entering a position.

• Monitor Volume: Increased volume during the breakout will add confirmation to the move’s strength.

• Set Stop Losses Wisely: Depending on the direction of the breakout, placing stop losses just below or above the triangle boundaries can help manage risk.

Key News Events for August 13, 2024:

Several high-impact economic announcements are scheduled, which could significantly affect EUR/USD:

• 2:00 AM (GMT): GBP - Claimant Count Change and Unemployment Rate releases. These could impact the GBP, which might have a ripple effect on EUR/USD due to the close economic ties between the Eurozone and the UK.

• 5:00 AM (GMT): EUR - German ZEW Economic Sentiment and ZEW Economic Sentiment for the Eurozone. These are key indicators of economic health and investor confidence in the Eurozone, likely to influence EUR volatility.

• 8:30 AM (GMT): USD - Core PPI and PPI releases. Producer Price Index data is closely watched as an inflation indicator, and any surprises could drive USD volatility, impacting EUR/USD.

Given these scheduled events, it’s advisable to monitor the market closely, as the announcements could trigger the breakout from the current symmetrical triangle pattern on the EUR/USD pai

[Jag757]

Trading thoughts for the day.

I’ve been reflecting on some of the trading videos I see on YouTube, where people often talk about making massive returns and having near-perfect trading records. Honestly, I find those claims a bit hard to believe and think they can set unrealistic expectations.

As for my own experience, here’s where I am for August as of the 13th while trading a decent-sized live account. I’ve taken 24 trades so far, with about 70% of them being positive. That’s pretty typical for me, though I usually aim a little higher, I’m comfortable with how things are going.

Interestingly, all of my short positions this month have been winners, which is a bit unusual and something I can’t fully explain. I’ve also had 11 wins in a row and 4 losses in a row, averaging 4 wins for every loss this month.

Regarding my account, it’s up just over 3% for the month so far, and I’m probably on track to hit 5% or 6% by the end of the month. Here’s something that might surprise you: I haven’t risked more than 0.5% on any trade this month. I know that might seem low to some, but it’s a level I’ve felt confident with. While I’m willing to risk up to 1% per trade, I’m not going beyond that.

To put things in perspective, I’ve been trading for over 19 years, and I wasn’t profitable during my first year, so I’m looking at 18 years of consistent profit. Of course, results can vary, and some months are better than others, but I typically see annual returns of no less than 20% and no more than 30%. While it’s not the millions of dollars you see from the so-called traders on YouTube, it’s a good return on investment and a realistic goal. I believe this approach to trading is better than chasing unrealistic returns that can put too much pressure on your trading.

Good Trading,
J

[Thubay]

Thanks Jag. Yes, reading forums and groups does help me too. There are quite some interesting topic. Sometimes it’s only difficult because good traders might not be good writers/teachers, which make things to understand.
It’s a new good. Have a great trading week Jag.

[Jag757]

I have been having some success with this pair for the past few weeks. There has been good movement each day averaging well above 200 pips a day. Be careful if you trade this pair because it moves quickly.

Summary and Strategy for the New Trading Day (GBP/JPY)

Market Context:

• Current Price Levels: The pair has been oscillating around a critical level, frequently testing the resistance zone, which has held strong so far. This level has been a reliable spot for short trades in the past, as seen with your recent 60-pip gain.

• Volatility: There’s significant movement within the range, but the overall long-term direction remains unclear, with the pair showing signs of both bullish and bearish momentum at different times.

Chart Analysis:

1. 15-Minute Chart:

• Consolidation: The price is consolidating near the 61.8% Fibonacci level, which often indicates that a larger move may be brewing.

• Moving Averages: The flattening of the shorter moving averages suggests that bullish momentum might be stalling.

• Key Levels to Watch: A break above the 61.8% level could indicate a potential upward move, while a rejection could signal another opportunity for a short trade.

2. 4-Hour Chart:

• Trend Line Break: The price has broken through a previous trend line, potentially indicating a shift in market sentiment. However, this needs to be confirmed by further price action.

• MACD: The MACD is relatively flat, showing a lack of strong momentum in either direction. Monitoring for any changes here could provide clues about the next significant move.

3. Daily Chart:

• Broader Trend: The pair is still below the longer-term moving averages, indicating that the broader downtrend may still be intact despite the recent correction.

• MACD: Potential crossover in the MACD suggests a possible momentum shift, but this is not yet confirmed.

Strategies for the Trading Day:

**1. Short-Term Trading Strategy:

• Range Trading: Given the pair’s tendency to move back and forth within a defined range, consider taking short trades from resistance levels and long trades from support levels until a clear breakout occurs.

• Confirmation: Use confirmation from indicators like RSI and MACD, especially on the 15-minute and 4-hour charts, to validate entries and exits.

**2. Breakout Strategy:

• Watch for Breakouts: If the pair breaks decisively above the 61.8% Fibonacci level or below the recent support level, consider entering a trade in the direction of the breakout. Given the recent volatility, breakouts could lead to significant moves.

• Stop-Loss Placement: In the case of a breakout, place stop-loss orders just below the breakout level (for long positions) or just above it (for short positions) to protect against false breakouts.

**3. Long-Term Perspective:

• Stay Cautious: Given the lack of clear long-term direction, be cautious with long-term trades. Focus on short-term opportunities until the market provides more clarity.

• Monitor Economic News: Keep an eye on any significant economic news that could impact GBP/JPY, as these events might provide the catalyst for a longer-term move.

**4. Risk Management:

• Tight Stops: Use tight stop-loss orders, especially in this volatile environment, to protect against quick reversals.

• Position Sizing: Consider smaller position sizes to manage risk, especially when the market direction is uncertain.

Conclusion:

The key focus for the new trading day should be on the current range and the potential for a breakout. The pair’s behavior around key Fibonacci levels will be crucial in determining the next significant move. Employing a combination of range trading and breakout strategies, while keeping risk management at the forefront, should help navigate the volatility effectively.

[samewise]

@Jag757

Be careful if you trade this pair because it moves quickly.

I’ve been caught by this pair a couple of times this year…

[Torchwave]

Hello, Jag757. Thorough, detailed, methodical as ever. How are you doing? Been a while now.