FX Analysis by SGT Markets

Commercial Content Analysts
264

#EUR/USD
During the Asian trade, the euro weakened against the dollar. At 8:40 am, the euro is exchanging for $ 1.1637, which at the beginning of the European session shows a gain of 0.04%. There are no economic news from the EU today. At 16:00 hours, a set of pointers of the Michigan University sentiment from the United States is expected.

#GBP / USD
During the Asian trading, the dollar strengthened against the British pound. At around 08:30, this currency pair is at a level of $ 1.3123 per pound, which means a gain of 0.17%. At 10:30, production data in the manufacturing sector and UK trade balance data will be published. At 16:00 hours, a set of pointers of the Michigan University sentiment from the United States is expected.

#USD / JPY
During Asian trading, yen weakened against the dollar. At around 8:40 am, this currency pair is traded at 113.55 yen per dollar, which at the beginning of the European session yen seems weaker than the dollar by 0.07%. At 16:00, a set of sentiment indicators from the Michigan University from the USA is expected

#GOLD
The price of gold has been declining during Asian trade. During Asian trading, gold prices fell by 0.25%.

#OIL
The price of crude oil declined during Asian trade, but strengthened at a newly-introduced high level. Tonight at 7:00 pm, data on the number of newly opened oil wells in the United States is expected. Before the end of the Asian session, crude oil is traded about $ 57.02 per barrel, which gives a drop of around 0.26%.

#DAX30
Dax30 slipped slightly on Thursday (-1.49%) to 13183 points. The loser of the day was Adidas, whose share fell 4.67%.

265

#EUR/USD
During the night, the euro weakened against the dollar as yields on US bonds rose. This morning, the euro is exchanged for $ 1.1637, which at the beginning of the European session shows a gain of 0.13%. Today, there are no economic news and announcements from the EU, and in the United States, the public’s focus is still on the final look of the tax reform solution and from when it will apply.

#GBP/USD
During the night, the dollar strengthened against the British pound, as turbulence in the UK over the legitimacy of the government of Theresa May pushed the pound. This morning, this currency pair is at $ 1.3129 per pound, which means the dollar gain of 0.65%. Today there are no economic news and announcements from UK and USA.

#USD/JPY
During the night, yen strengthened against the dollar. This morning, this currency pair is traded at 113.39 yen per dollar, which at the beginning of the European session the Japanese yen seems weaker against the dollar by 0.12%. Today there are no economic news and announcements from the United States, but at 18:45 GMT+1 time the BoJ Governor Kuroda will held a speech, which may indicate some future changes on the monetary policy of Japan.

#GOLD
Gold prices are on the rise during Asian trade. During Asian trading, the price of gold rose by 0.19%.

#OIL
During the night, the price of crude oil generally remained at the level it ended in the previous week. It has been reported that a strong earthquake in Iraq has caused minor concerns in terms of supplies from that Arab state. The number of newly opened oil wells in the US has increased by nine units, a Baker Hughes regular report showed Friday. At the end of the Asian session, crude oil is traded about $ 56.77 per barrel, which gives an increase of about 0.10%.

#DAX30
Dax30 fell on Friday (-0.42%) closing at 13127 points. The winner was Deutsche Bank (+ 3.14%) and Adidas (+ 3.13%).

266

#EUR/USD
During the Asian trade, the euro strengthened against. At around 8:20 pm, the euro is exchanged for $ 1.1809, which at the beginning of the European session shows a strengthening of the euro by 0.1%. At 11:00 am, the trade balance of the euro zone will be published. At 2:30 pm, baseline inflation and retail data from the United States are expected, and at 16:00 hours the stock of the business world stock is expected.

#GBP/USD
During the Asian trading, the pound strengthened against the US currency. At around 08:30, this currency pair is at $ 1,3182 per pound, which means a gain of 0.11%. At 10:30, data from the UK labor market are expected. At 2:30 pm, baseline inflation and retail data from the United States are expected, and at 16:00 hours the stock of the business world stock is expected.

#USD/JPY
During Asian trading, yen strengthened against the dollar. At around 8:40 am, this currency pair is traded at 112.98 yen per dollar, which at the beginning of the European session makes the yen stronger than the dollar by 0.41%. At 2:30 pm, baseline inflation and retail data from the United States are expected, and at 16:00 hours the stock of the business world stock is expected.

#GOLD
The price of gold slipped during Asian trading. During Asian trading, the price of gold fell by 0.4%.

#OIL
During the Asian trade, the price of crude oil declined sharply, as yesterday’s report of the International Energy Agency showed reservations regarding the balance of world supply and demand for this energy product. Also, the US Petroleum Institute announced last night that a strong stock growth of more than 6 million barrels has been recorded and a drop was expected. At 16:30, regular official data on the stock of crude oil and petroleum products from the United States are expected. At the end of the Asian session, crude oil is traded about $ 55.05 per barrel, which gives a drop of about 1.17%.

#DAX30
Dax30 dropped on Tuesday (-0.31%), closing at 13033 points. The day’s winner was Infineon (+ 2.66%) and Adidas (+ 1.93%).

267

#EUR/USD
During the Asian trade, the euro has weakened against the dollar by stopping a strong growth that has been going on since the beginning of this week. At around 8:20 pm, the euro is exchanged for $ 1.1784, which at the beginning of the European session shows a gain of 0.06%. At 11:00, data on inflation growth in the euro zone are expected. At 14:30, the latest index of economic activity in the processing sector of the Federal Reserve branch of Philadelphia will be published.

#GBP / USD
During the Asian trading, the dollar strengthened against the British pound. At around 8:25 am, this currency pair is at $ 1,3141 per pound, which means a gain of $ 0.24%. At 10:30, a retail data set is expected in the UK. At 14:30, the latest index of economic activity in the processing sector of the Federal Reserve branch of Philadelphia will be published.

#USD / JPY
During Asian trading, yen weakened against the dollar. At around 8:25 pm, this currency pair is traded at 113.22 yen per dollar, which at the beginning of the European session jen makes it weaker against the dollar by 0.3%. At 14:30, the latest index of economic activity in the processing sector of the Federal Reserve branch of Philadelphia will be published.

#GOLD
The price of gold slid slightly during Asian trade. During Asian trading, gold prices fell by 0.13%.

#OIL
During the Asian trade, crude oil prices generally remained at levels yesterday, although crude oil stocks rose yesterday despite the expected decline. At the end of the Asian session, crude oil is traded about $ 55.37 per barrel, which gives a modest growth of about 0.07%.

#DAX30
Dax30 fell on Wednesday (-0.44%), closing at 12976 points. The winner of the day was the share of Deutsche Bank (+ 1.91%) and Komerc bank (+ 1.84%).

268

#EUR/USD
During the Asian trade, the euro weakened against the dollar, although the lower house of the Congress adopted a tax reform package. The Senate is now expected to begin debating. At around 08:30, the euro is exchanged for $ 1.1798, which at the beginning of the European session shows a strengthening of the euro by 0.24%. At 9:30 am, it is expected the address of Maria Dragi, the ECB’s president, not a gathering that does not have a purely monetary sign. At 14:30, the latest number from the US real estate market (on newly issued building permits) will be announced.
#GBP/USD
During Asian trading, the dollar weakened against the British pound. At around 08:30, this currency pair is at a level of $ 1.3241 per pound, which means a pound gain of 0.36%. At 10:30, a retail data set is expected in the UK. At 14:30, the latest number from the US real estate market (on newly issued building permits) will be announced. There are no economic news and announcements from the UK today.

#USD / JPY
During Asian trading, yen weakened against the dollar. At around 08:30, this currency pair is traded at the level of 112.59 yen for one dollar, which at the beginning of the European session is rising stronger against the dollar by 0.42%. At 14:30, the latest number from the US real estate market (on newly issued building permits) will be announced.

#GOLD
Gold prices rose slightly during Asian trading. A number of investors say that after the adoption of a tax reform in the lower house of the US Congress, there is a higher chance of a rise in inflation. During Asian trading, gold prices rose by 0.13%.

#OIL
During Asian trade, crude oil prices are rising. At 19:00, the latest number on the number of oil wells in the United States will be released. At the end of the Asian session, crude oil is traded about $ 55.34 per barrel, which gives an increase of about 0.36%.

#DAX30
Dax30 rose on Thursday (+ 0.55%) closing at 13047 points. The winner of the day was Infineon’s share (+ 3.46%).

269

#EUR/USD
The euro weakened against the US dollar during the Asian trade. German Chancellor Angela Merkel said she would report to the German president on the unsuccessful negotiations over a coalition government that the Green Party and the Free Democrats Party should have made. As a reaction, the euro has weakened against the US dollar. During this day, more European Central Bank officials will speak in the afternoon, as will President Mario Draghi, which can be further reflected in the exchange rate of this currency pair. During the Asian trade, the euro weakened against the US dollar by 0.49%.

#GBP/USD
The British pound weakened against the US dollar during Asian trading. For now, the announcement of significant economic information from the UK and the US has not been announced, so that the exchange rate of this currency could remain under the current fundamental effects of primarily negotiations on the UK’s EU outbreak and further development of the implementation of tax reform in the United States. During the Asian trading, the British pound weakened against the US dollar by 0.08%.

#USD/JPY
The US dollar weakened against the Japanese yen during Asian trading. This morning, a mixed balance of trade balance data in Japan, which has so far affected the weakening of the exchange rate of this currency pair. Also, the US currency is still under diminishing pressure, mainly due to further progress in the introduction of tax reform in the US and special investigations into alleged Russian involvement in the US presidential election. During the Asian trade, the US dollar weakened by 0.04% against the Japanese yen.

#GOLD
The price of gold weakened during Asian trade. During the Asian trade so far, market participants turned to more risky investments, which had a detrimental effect on the price of this secure investment. During this day, the price of this precious metal may be affected by the political uncertainty in Germany after Chancellor Angela Merkel stated that she failed to form a coalition government and the process of further streamlining the tax reform in the United States. During Asian trading, the price of gold declined by 0.38%

#OIL
During Asian trade, the price of crude oil has weakened. On Friday, the Baker Hughes report showed that the number of newly opened oil wells in the US did not change, remained at the number of 738. The current Asian trading session is marked by relatively peaceful trading, which is explained by the expectation of the forthcoming meeting of the OPEC cartel in Vienna on November 30th, which should consider prolonging the agreement on reducing the production of this energy product. During Asian trade, the price of crude oil declined by 0.14%.

#DAX30
Dax30 fell by 0.41% on Friday. The largest decline was recorded in the shares of the base industry, the media and the software industry. From the winners, Linde AG O.N (+ 2.60%) and the losers of RWE AG (-3.93%) were singled out. The index of volatility on the German index, which shows the sentiment (fear) of the investor regarding the expected volatility in the future period, dropped to 14.05 points or a decrease of 1.59%.

270

#EUR/USD
During the Asian trading, the euro strengthened against the dollar. US bond yields did not rise, so the dollar failed to keep much of the gains it recorded yesterday. Janet Jelen said last night that the Fed is pretty close to achieving the goals of its monetary policy. Today there are no economic news and announcements from the euro zone. At 2:30 pm, a set of data on orders for permanent US consumer goods will be published, an hour and a half later, and a consumer sentiment indicator at the Michigan University.

#GBP/USD
During Asian trading, the dollar weakened against the British pound. At 13:00, the UK Treasury will present its autumn announcement to Parliament. At 2:30 pm, a set of data on orders for permanent US consumer goods will be published, an hour and a half later, and a consumer sentiment indicator at the Michigan University.

#USD/JPY
During Asian trading, yen strengthened against the dollar. At 2:30 pm, a set of data on orders for permanent US consumer goods will be published, an hour and a half later, and a consumer sentiment indicator at the Michigan University.

#GOLD
The price of gold has moderately increased during Asian trading on the account of a slight weakening of the dollar. During Asian trading, gold prices rose by 0.13%.

#OIL
During Asian trade, crude oil prices recorded strong growth. The US petroleum institute has reported a much higher decline in oil reserves in the US compared to expectations. Also, the discontinuation of supplies from Canada to the United States has affected growth. Before the end of the Asian session, crude oil is traded about $ 57.83 per barrel, which gives an increase of about 1.76%.

#DAX30
Dax30 rose on Tuesday (+ 0.83%), closing at 13168 points, despite a poor impression of the political situation in Germany that is in the heart of the world’s public. The winner of the day was Infineon (+ 3.29%).

271

#EUR/USD
During the Asian trading, the euro strengthened against the dollar. Yesterday, the notes from the last Federal Reserve meeting showed that the belief is that the US economy stands well, and that high price growth in the stock market poses a potential danger. This morning, data on GDP growth in Germany for the third quarter remained at the expectation level (+ 0.8%). At 9:15 am, a preliminary indicator of economic activity in Germany will be announced for November. Today is a non-working holiday in USA, Thanksgiving Day.

#GBP/USD
During the Asian trade, the dollar has confirmed large losses against the British pound Yesterday, the notes from the last Federal Reserve meeting showed that the belief is that the US economy stands well, and that high price growth in the stock market poses a potential danger. Today is a non-working holiday in USA, Thanksgiving Day.

#USD/JPY
During the Asian trade, the yen kept big gains from yesterday against the dollar. Today is a non-working holiday in Japan, a Thanksgiving Day, as well as in the United States.

#GOLD
The price of gold lost a small portion of the high growth that was recorded yesterday due to a strong weakening of the dollar. During Asian trading, gold prices fell by 0.16%.

#OIL
During the Asian trade, the price of crude oil recorded a slight withdrawal relative to the strong growth last night. The decline in crude oil stocks in the US yesterday contributed to the rising trend in oil prices. At the end of the Asian session, crude oil is traded about $ 57.89 per barrel, which drops about 0.22%.

#DAX30
Dax30 fell on Wednesday (-1.16%), closing at 13015 points. The loser of the day was Infineon’s share (-2.72%). This morning, data on GDP growth in Germany for the third quarter remained at the expectation level (+ 0.8%).

272

#EUR/USD
The euro strengthened against the US dollar during the Asian trade. Due to the relaxation of the political crisis in Germany and the better business climate in Germany, the common European currency has reached the highest value in the last two months against the dollar. At 4:00 pm in the United States, data on the number of new houses sold will be published, which can be further reflected in the exchange rate of this currency pair. During the Asian trade, the euro strengthened against the US dollar by 0.03%.

#GBP/USD
The British pound weakened against the US dollar during Asian trading. At 4:00 pm in the United States, data on the number of new houses sold will be published, which can be further reflected in the exchange rate of this currency pair. During the Asian trade, the British pound weakened against the US dollar by 0.15%.

#USD/JPY
The US dollar weakened against the Japanese yen during Asian trading. The disappointing data of the procurement managers index (PMI) of the manufacturing and service sector, released in the US on Friday, are still the dominant factor in weakening the US currency against the Japanese yen. At 4:00 pm in the United States, data on the number of new houses sold will be published, which can be further reflected in the exchange rate of this currency pair. During the Asian trading, the US dollar weakened against the Japanese yen by 0.10%.

#GOLD
The price of gold weakened during Asian trade. The decline in the US currency to its lowest value in the last two months has affected the price growth of secure investments, including gold. At 16:00 in the United States, data on the number of new homes sold will be published, which can be further reflected in the cost of this secure investment. During Asian trading, the price of gold increased by 0.18%.

#OIL
During Asian trade, the price of crude oil has weakened. The increase in production in the United States has currently assumed a major impact on the price of this fuel. On Thursday, the OPEC and Russia cartel will meet in Vienna to consider prolonging the agreement to reduce crude oil production and thereby try to bring the oil derivatives market back to equilibrium. During Asian trade, the price of crude oil declined by 0.53%.

#DAX30
Dax30 gained 0.39% on Friday. Shares of the chemical industry, insurance and software industry recorded the highest growth. Of the winners, BASF (+ 2.91%) and the loser Adidas AG (-0.96%) were singled out. The index of volatility on the German index, which shows the sentiment (fear) of the investor regarding the expected volatility in the future period, has risen to 13.37 points, ie it has increased by 1.20%.

273

#EUR/USD
During the night, the euro strengthened against the dollar. Progress has been made to date with regard to the tax reform in the Senate. This morning, the Euro is exchanged for $ 1,1915, which at the beginning of the European session shows a strengthening of the euro by 0.12%. At 16:00 pm (ISM) is expected (sentiment) about the dynamics of economic activity in the US manufacturing sector.

#GBP/USD
During the night, the dollar weakened against the British pound. This morning, this currency pair is at a level of $ 1.3523 for one penny, which means a 0.04% increase in the dollar. At 16:00, expected ISM data from the United States is expected.

#USD/JPY
During the night, the yen dwindled slightly against the dollar. Japan’s inflation figures were mostly on the level of expectations. This morning, this currency pair is traded at a level of 112.62 yen for one dollar, which at the beginning of the European session makes it weaker than the dollar by 0.08%. At 16:00 pm (ISM) is expected (sentiment) about the dynamics of economic activity in the US manufacturing sector.

#GOLD
The price of gold grew treasantly during Asian trading because there was no vote in the Senate on tax law, as it was initially planned. Early this morning, the price of gold rose by 0.13%.

#OIL
During the night, crude oil prices are rising. At the OPEC meeting in Vienna, it was decided that the production restriction program would be extended by the end of next year, with the possibility of revising the agreement at the next meeting in June. Towards the end of the Asian session, crude oil is traded for about $ 57.59 per barrel, giving rise to about 0.33%.

#DAX30
Dax30 dropped (-0.29%) on Thursday, closing at 13024 points. The winner was Continental (+ 1.87%).

274

#EUR/USD
During the Asian trade, the euro weakened against the dollar. On Friday, a tax reform package was adopted in the Senate, which made the dollar stronger. At around 08:30, the euro is exchanged for $ 1.1840, which at the beginning of the European session shows a gain of 0.47%. Today (informal) meeting of euro zone finance ministers is taking place, and at 11:00 hours the latest index of producer prices in the euro zone will be announced. At 16:00, Factory Orders are expected to be posted in the US.

#GBP/USD
During the Asian trading, the dollar strengthened against the British pound. The Senate has adopted its version of the tax law and now only remains to be agreed with the lower house of the Congress. At around 08:30, this currency pair is at $ 1,3427 per pound, which means a gain of 0.33%. At 10:30, an economic activity indicator in the construction sector of the UK is expected, and from the USA, at 16:00, factory orders.

#USD/JPY
During Asian trading, yen weakly weakened against the dollar. The Senate has adopted its version of the tax law and now only remains to be agreed with the lower house of the Congress. At around 08:30, this currency pair is traded at the level of 113.05 yen per dollar, which at the beginning of the European session yen makes the weaker against the dollar by 0.08%. At 16:00, the factory orders in the United States are expected.

#GOLD
The price of gold fell during Asian trade, as the US Senate passed a tax law. During Asian trading, the price of gold fell by 0.51%.

#OIL
During Asian trade, the price of crude oil declined. On Friday, the number of wells increased to two units (a total of 479). At the end of the Asian session, crude oil is traded about $ 57.91 per barrel, which gives a fall of around 0.77%.

#DAX30
Dax30 fell strongly on Friday (-1.25%), closing at 12861 points. The loser of the day was the shares of Tisenkrup (-2.94%).

275

#EUR/USD
The euro weakened against the US dollar during the Asian trade. Today at 11:00, data on the gross domestic product of Euro zone will be published, which can be reflected in the exchange rate of this currency pair. During the Asian trade, the euro weakened against the US dollar by 0.05%.

#GBP/USD
During the Asian trade, the British pound weakened against the US dollar by 0.14%.

#USD/JPY
The US dollar strengthened against the Japanese yen during Asian trade. Today at 14:30, information on the number of applications for new unemployed persons will be published, which can be reflected in the exchange rate of this currency pair. During the Asian trade, the dollar strengthened against the Japanese yen by 0.29%.

#GOLD
The price of gold weakened during Asian trade. Moderate optimism about the further steps in the tax reform influenced the weakening of safe investments, which affected the weakening of the prices of safe investments. Today at 14:30, information on the number of applications for new unemployed persons will be published, which can be reflected in the exchange rate of this currency pair. During Asian trading, the price of gold declined by 0.50%.

#OIL
During Asian trade, the price of crude oil has weakened. Although yesterday’s US government report showed a decline in crude oil stocks, the rise in gasoline stocks affected the price of this fuel. During Asian trade, the price of crude oil declined by 0.21%.

#DAX30
Dax30 weakened by 0.38% on Wednesday. The largest decline was recorded in cyclical production, transport and technology. Of the winners, Deutsche Boerse (+ 1.03%) and Volkswagen AG lost -2.84%. The index of volatility on the German index, which shows the sentiment (fear) of the investor regarding the expected volatility in the future period, rose to 14.67 points, ie it grew by 4.59%.

276

#EUR/USD
During the Asian trading, the euro strengthened against the dollar. At around 08:45 hours, the euro is exchanged for $ 1.1782, which at the beginning of the European session shows a strengthening of the euro by 0.11%. At 11:00, a regular indicator (ZEW) of the business climate sentiment in Germany is expected. At 2:30 pm, the data on the growth of the producer price index in the United States is expected. The dollar is in anticipation of the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting, which lasts tomorrow and tomorrow.

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#GBP/USD
During Asian trading, the dollar weakened against the British pound. At around 08:45, this currency pair is at $ 1,3348 per pound, which means a pound gain of 0.06%. At 10:30, a regular monthly inflation report is expected in the UK. At 2:30 pm, the data on the growth of the producer price index in the United States is expected.

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#USD/JPY
During Asian trading, yen strengthened against the dollar. Japan’s producer price index jumped more than expected, data showed last night. At around 08:45 hours, this currency pair is traded at 113.41 yen per dollar, which at the beginning of the European session makes the yen stronger against the dollar by 0.13%. At 2:30 pm, the data on the growth of the producer price index in the United States is expected.

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#GOLD
The price of gold is in the fall of Asian trading because the sentiment of the investor is not tilted toward the dollar. Gold is in the expectation of the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting that lasts tomorrow and tomorrow. On the course of Asian trading, the price of gold rose by 0.06%.

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#OIL
During Asian trade, the price of crude oil is on the rise. The growing sentiment was supported by the news that there was a suspension of supplies from the North Sea. At the end of the Asian session, crude oil is traded about $ 58.36 per barrel, which gives an increase of about 0.77%.

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#DAX30
Dax30 fell on Friday (-0.23%), closing at 13124 points. The loser of the day was Adidas’s share (-3.1%). At 11:00, a regular indicator (ZEW) of the business climate sentiment in Germany is expected.

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https://sgtmarkets.com/en/market-news/market-overview-2017-12-12/

277

#EUR/USD

Eyes on today Fed Interest Rates Decision (Rates are expected to rise up) and FOMC Meeting.

Eurozone CPI inflation data (Preliminary release) ticked down while U.S. GDP preliminary release ticked upper than expected. Last U.S. Nonfarm payrolls and ADP Nonfarm Employment data also surpassed consensus once again.

German Ifo and Manufacturing PMI data came again higher than expected.
President Draghi said the ECB was becoming increasingly confident that the euro zone’s economic recovery would continue but sluggish growth in wages meant monetary policy needed to remain easy.

We expected a strong correction down from 1.185 area and this is happening. Now, either a consolidation phase or a confirmed break with next stop below 1.176 area.

Our special Fibo Retracement is confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2012:

Weekly Trend: Neutral
1st Resistance: 1.1856
2nd Resistance: 1.1990
1st Support: 1.1756
2nd Support: 1.1655

EUR

Recent Facts:

30th of June, German Unemployment Change + Eurozone CPI
German Unemployment Change Better than Expected, Eurozone CPI higher than Expected

3rd of July, German Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

5th of July, French Services PMI + German Services PMI + Eurozone Retail Sales
Better than Expected

18th of July, German ZEW Economic Sentiment
Worse than Expected

24th of July, German Manufacturing PMI + Eurozone Manufacturing PMI + Eurozone Services PMI
Worse than Expected

28th of July, German CPI
Better than Expected

31st of July, Eurozone CPI (Preliminary) + Unemployment Rate
Eurozone CPI (Preliminary) as Expected, Unemployment Rate Better than Expected

1st of August, German Manufacturing PMI + Unemployment Change
Worse than Expected

15th of August, German GDP (Preliminary release)
Worse than Expected

17th of August, Eurozone CPI
As Expected

22nd of August, German ZEW Economic Sentiment
Worse than Expected

23rd of August, German Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

25th of August, German Ifo Business Climate
Better than Expected

31st of August, German Unemployment + CPI (Preliminary release)
German Unemployment Worse than Expected, CPI Better than Expected

1st of September, Manufacturing PMI
Worse than Expected

7th of September, ECB Press Conference
Draghi said that growth projections were made considering EURUSD @1.18 level (the current or higher levels are considered due to excessive volatility and this is considered to be slowing down CPI measures) and in October some clearer actions will be taken in order to push inflation upwards (possibly by monitoring EURUSD and reducing overshooting in EUR currency levels).

13th of September, Eurozone Employment Change
Better than Expected

15th of September, Eurozone Wages, Trade Balance
Better than Expected

18th of September: Eurozone CPI
As Expected

19th of September: German ZEW Economic Sentiment, German ZEW current conditions
Better than Expected

22nd of September, German Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected (at its highest since May 2011)

28th of September, Eurozone Inflation data
Worse than Expected

29th of September, German Unemployment Change
Better than Expected

25th of October, French and German Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

26th of October, ECB Interest Rate Decision and Press Conference
Dovish: ECB will extend those purchases to the end of September 2018, or beyond, if necessary

31st of October, Eurozone CPI
Worse than Expected

2nd of November, German Manufacturing + German Unemployment
Better than Expected

14th of November, German GDP
Better than Expected

23rd of November, German Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

30th of November, Eurozone CPI (Preliminary release)
Lower than Expected

USD

Recent Facts:

7th of July, Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Change
Nonfarm Payrolls Better than Expected, Unemployment Change Worse than Expected

13th of July, PPI
Better than Expected

14th of July, U.S. Core Retail + U.S. CPI
Worse than Expected

20th of July, Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index
Worse than Expected

25th of July, Conference Board Consumer Confidence
Better than Expected

27th of July, Core Durable Goods Orders
Worse than Expected

28th of July, U.S. GDP (Preliminary release)
As Expected

1st of August, ISM Manufacturing PMI
Slightly Worse than Expected

2nd of August, ADP Nonfarm Employment Change
Worse than Expected

3rd of August, ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI
Worse than Expected (at the lowest since October 2016)

4th of August, Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate
Job Market Better than Expected

8th of August, Job Openings
Better than Expected

10th of August, PPI
Worse than Expected

11th of August, U.S. CPI
Worse than Expected

15th of August, U.S. Core Retail Sales
Better than Expected

23rd of August, Manufacturing PMI and New Home Sales
Worse than Expected

29th of August, CB Consumer Confidence
Better than Expected

30th of August, ADP Nonfarm Employment Change + GDP
ADP Nonfarm Employment Change Better than Expected, GDP relevantly better than expected

1st of September, U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment rate
Worse than Expected

1st of September, ISM Manufacturing
Better than Expected

6th of September, ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI
Worse than Expected

13th of September, PPI
Worse than Expected

15th of September, Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

15th of September, Manufacturing Production + Industrial Production
Worse than Expected

19th of September, Building Permits
Better than Expected

20th of September, FOMC Statement + FOMC Press Conference
Fed confirmed inflation view, labour market growth and scheduled rate hikes

26th of September, Fed Chair Yellen speech
Federal Reserve to continue gradual interest rate hikes despite uncertainty about the path of inflation. It “would be imprudent to keep monetary policy on hold until inflation is back to 2%,” she said.

28th of September, U.S. GDP + U.S. job market
Better than Expected

2nd of October, ISM Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

4th of October, ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI + ADP Nonfarm Employment Change
Better than Expected

6th of October, Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate
Worse than Expected

12th of October, Core PPI
Higher than Expected

13th of October, Core CPI + Retail Sales
Lower than Expected

27th of October, GDP (Preliminary release)
GDP Higher than Expected

1st of November, FOMC Statement
Slightly Hawkish

3rd of November, Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate
U.S. Job Creation Surges But Misses Consensus; U.S. Wage Inflation flat

14th of November, PPI
Higher than Expected

30th of November, U.S. GDP (Preliminary release)
GDP Higher than Expected

8th of December, Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate
Better than Expected

Eyes on today release: U.S. Interest Rates

#GBP/USD

Eyes on today Fed Interest Rates Decision (Rates are expected to rise up) and FOMC Meeting.

UK CPI inflation data and UK Manufacturing Production came higher than consensus.

Sterling rose amid hopes that a deal on Brexit would be reached. Nonetheless, we think the sentiment will turn negative very soon, as this deal will be delayed and Pound will discount this heavily overbought speculative situation.

UK Retail Sales came better than expected and last UK job market data also better than expected.

As written previously, Pound is inside an overbought area. 1.336 – 1.346 area represented a strong Resistance and now prices start to be overheat, so that an overbought pattern triggered and now we expect price to fall below 1.329 area.

Our special Fibo Retracement is confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2001:

Weekly Trend: Overbought
1st Resistance: 1.3460
2nd Resistance: 1.3610
1st Support: 1.3362
2nd Support: 1.3285

GBP

Recent Facts:

15th of June, Retail Sales
Retail Sales Worse than Expected,

20th of June, BoE Gov Carney Speech
Carney ruled out imminent rate hikes, warning of weak wage growth and a likely hit to incomes as Britain prepares to leave the European Union.

30th of June, GDP
UK GDP as Expected, with improving Current Account

3rd of July, UK Manufacturing PMI
Worse than Expected

4th of July, Construction PMI
Slightly Worse than Expected

5th of July, Services PMI
Slightly Worse than Expected

7th of July, Manufacturing Production
Worse than Expected

12th of July, UK Job Market
Better than Expected

18th of July, CPI
Worse than Expected

20th of July, UK Retail Sales
Better than Expected

26th of July, UK GDP release (Preliminary)
As Expected

1st of August, Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

2nd of August, Construction PMI
Worse than Expected (at the lowest since October 2016)

3rd of August, Services PMI
Better than Expected

10th of August, Manufacturing Production
As Expected

15th of August, UK CPI
Worse than Expected

16th of August, UK Job Market
Better than Expected

17th of August, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

24th of August, GDP (Preliminary release)
UK GDP (Preliminary release) as expected but Business Investment (Preliminary release) Worse than Expected

1st of September, Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

4th of September, Construction PMI
Worse than Expected

5th of September, Services PMI
Worse than Expected

8th of September, Trade Balance and Manufacturing Production
Better than Expected

12th of September, CPI
Higher than Expected

13th of September, Job Market
Better than Expected

14th of September, BoE Meeting Minutes
The BoE’s monetary policy committee voted 7-to-2 to leave interest rates at their current record low of 0.25% following its policy meeting but the bank said in its rate statement that the economy is looking slightly, so an interest rate hike move is likely “over the coming months” if the economy performs broadly in line with officials’ expectations

18th of September, Governor Carney Speech at IMF headquarter
De-integration effects of Brexit are likely to be inflationary but any rate hikes are expected to be gradual and limited

20th of September, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

29th of September, UK GDP
Worse than Expected

2nd of October, Manufacturing PMI
Worse than Expected

3rd of October, Construction PMI
Worse than Expected

4th of October, Services PMI
Better than Expected

10th of October, Manufacturing Production
Better than Expected

17th of October, UK CPI
Slightly Worse than Expected

18th of October, Job Market data
Wages Higher than Expected, Claimant Count Worse than Expected

19th of October, UK Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

25th of October, UK GDP (Preliminary release)
Better than Expected

1st of November, UK Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

2nd of November, Interest Rate Decision
Dovish Bank of England raised interest rates but said that any further hikes would be at a gradual pace and to a limited extent

10th of November, Manufacturing Production
Better than Expected

14th of November, UK CPI
Higher than Expected

15th of November, Job market
Better than Expected

16th of November, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

1st of December, UK Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

5th of December, UK Services PMI
Worse than Expected

8th of December, Manufacturing Production
Better than Expected

12th of December, UK CPI data
Higher than Expected

USD

Recent Facts:

See above.

#AUD/USD

Eyes on today Fed Interest Rates Decision (Rates are expected to rise up) and FOMC Meeting.

Australia GDP worse than expected is deteriorating the hopes of a future hawkish RBA behaviour, though Retail Sales were higher than expected.

The Aussie central bank pointed to potential wage growth ahead as it kept rates steady and retail sales came in stronger than expected. Last Australia building approvals better than expected, while private sector credit pared expectations. Australia AIG Manufacturing Index disappointed analysts’ expectations.

RBA’s Lowe said no strong case for near-term change in interest rates but more likely next move in rates is up rather than down. Weakening case for lower rates as the economy picks up.
“Inflation and wage growth remain low. Both are expected to increase only gradually over time,” Governor Phil Lowe said.

We are Bearish from Neutral and we expect a consolidation phase starting around 0.748, after the important break of 0.757 Demand area.

Our special Fibo Retracements are confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2012:

Weekly Trend: Bearish
1st Resistance: 0.7680
2nd Resistance: 0.7735
1st Support: 0.7570
2nd Support: 0.7480

AUD

Recent Facts:

4th of May, Australia New Home Sales + Trade Balance
Worse than Expected

9th of May, Australia Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

18th of May, Australia Employment Change
Better than Expected

24th of May, Australia Construction Work Done
Worse than Expected

24th of May, Moody’s Credit Rating on China
Moody’s Investors Service downgraded China’s credit rating to A1 from Aa3, changing its outlook to stable from negative

25th of May, OPEC Meeting
OPEC decided to extend production cuts by nine months to March 2018

30th of May, Building Approvals + Private House Approvals
Better than Expected

1st of June, Australia Retail Sales
Better than Expected

6th of June, Reserve Bank Of Australia Interest Rate Decision and Statement
In the last meeting, the Reserve Bank of Australia held Interest Rates at 1.5% as expected, reporting that the current account’s deficit widened

7th of June, Australia GDP
Better than Expected

15th of June, Australia Employment Change
Better than Expected (3rd month in a row)

29th of June, HIA New Home Sales
Better than Expected

4th of July, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

4th of July, Reserve Bank of Australia Interest Rate Decision
RBA holds Rates at 1.5%

6th of July, Australia Trade Balance
Better than Expected

11th of July, Home Loans + NAB Business Confidence
Home Loans Worse than Expected, NAB Business Confidence Better than Expected

12th of July, Westpac Consumer Sentiment
Better than Expected

20th of July, Employment Change + Unemployment Rate
Employment Change Worse than Expected, Unemployment Rate as Expected

25th of July, CPI + RBA Governor Lowe Speech
Worse than Expected

3rd of August, Trade Balance
Worse than Expected

4th of August, Australia Retail Sales
Better than Expected

9th of August, Westpac Consumer Sentiment + Home Loans
Worse than Expected

17th of August, Employment Change
Better than Expected but Full Employment Change negative

30th of August, Australia Building Approvals + Construction Work Done
Better than Expected

1st of September, AIG Manufacturing Index
Better than Expected

6th of September, Australia GDP
Worse than Expected

7th of September, Trade Balance + Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

14th of September, Employment Change
Better than Expected

19th of September, House Price Index
Higher than Expected

5th of October, Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

19th of October, Employment Change
Better than Expected

25th of October, CPI
Lower than Expected

1st of November, AIG Manufacturing Index
Worse than Expected

3rd of November, Australia Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

16th of November, Australia Employment Change
Worse than Expected

5th of December, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

5th of December, RBA Interest Rate decision and Statement
Economy is growing

6th of December, GDP
Worse than Expected

USD

Recent Facts:

See above.

#You can see more here:

278

#EUR/USD
During the Asian trading, the euro strengthened strongly against the dollar from yesterday afternoon. Yesterday, the Federal Reserve was expected to raise its rate by a quarter percentage. The Fed has disappointed investors, as forecasts for the rate increase in 2018 and 2019 remained at three (possible) magnitudes. At around 08:30, the euro is exchanged for $ 1.1825, which at the beginning of the European session shows a symbolic increase in the dollar by 0.01%. At 09:30, it is expected a regular, but preliminary, indicator of activity in the manufacturing sector in Germany for December. At 14:30 hours, a retail data set for the US for November is expected, as well as a regular weekly report from the labor market.

#GBP/USD
During Asian trading, the dollar weakened against the British pound. The Fed has disappointed investors, as forecasts for the rate increase in 2018 and 2019 remained at three (possible) magnitudes. At around 08:30, this currency pair is at $ 1,3429 per pound, which means a pound increase of 0.09%. At 10:30, a regular monthly retail report is expected in the UK. At 2:30 pm, a retail data set for the US for November is expected, as well as a regular weekly report from the labor market.

#USD/JPY
During Asian trading, yen weakened against the dollar. Industrial production in Japan in October was at the expectation level (+ 0.5%). At around 08:30, this currency pair is traded at the level of 112.74 yen for one dollar, which at the beginning of the European session jen seems to be weaker against the dollar by 0.18%. At 2:30 pm, a retail data set for the US for November is expected, as well as a regular weekly report from the labor market.

#GOLD
Gold prices are on the rise during Asian trade, as the dollar fell strongly against all major currencies yesterday. Yesterday, the Federal Reserve is expected to raise its quarter-per-cent rate, which disappointed investors, as the Fed’s forecasts for 2018 and 2019. During Asian trading, gold prices rose by 0.31%

#OIL
During Asian trade, the price of crude oil is on the rise as the stock of US stocks has fallen for the fourth week in a row, according to official data yesterday late in the afternoon. At the end of the Asian session, crude oil is traded about $ 56.78 per barrel, which gives an increase of about 0.32%.

#DAX30
Dax30 fell on Wednesday (-0.44%), closing at 13,126 points. The loser of the day was RWE St (-13.06%). At 09:30, it is expected a regular, though preliminary, indicator of activity in the manufacturing sector in Germany for December.

279

#EUR/USD
During the night, the euro strengthened against the dollar. On Friday, the Social Democratic Party of Germany decided to enter into negotiations with the Angela Merkel coalition. This morning, the euro is exchanged for $ 1.1765, which at the beginning of the European session shows a strengthening of the euro by 0.15%. At 11:00, a regular report on inflation in the euro zone is expected. Today there are no major economic news and announcements from the United States. The dollar is awaiting confirmation of tax reform by the US president, until Christmas.

#GBP/USD
During the night, the dollar weakened against the British pound. This morning, this currency pair is at $ 1,3345 per pound, which means the pound increase of 0.2%. At 12:00, a regular monthly report on industrial procurement in the UK is expected. Today there are no major economic news and announcements from the United States. The dollar is awaiting confirmation of tax reform by the US president, until Christmas.

#USD/JPY
During the night, yen weakly weakened against the dollar, although it was announced last night that Japan’s exports and surplus of foreign trade increased. This morning, this currency pair is traded at 112.63 yen per dollar, which at the beginning of the European session yen decreased more than the dollar by 0.07%. Today there are no major economic news and announcements from the United States. The dollar is awaiting confirmation of tax reform by the US president, until Christmas.

#GOLD
Gold prices are on the rise during Asian trade, as the dollar is in a mild withdrawal against the major currencies. During Asian trading, the price of gold rose by 0.13%.

#OIL
During the night, the price of crude oil is declining. The growing sentiment is supported by news that supplies from the North Sea are still suspended. The number of newly opened boreholes decreased by four units, data showed in Baker Hughes on Friday. Before the end of the Asian session, crude oil is traded about $ 57.68 per barrel, which gives an increase of about 0.64%.

#DAX30
Dax30 rose on Friday (+ 0.27%), closing at 13104 points. The winner of the day was E.ON (+ 2.22%).

280

#EUR/USD
The euro weakly weakened against the US dollar during the Asian trade. This morning it was announced that the Senate of the US Congress adopted the final version of the law on tax reform. The House of Representatives is also expected to adopt the final version and send the bill to the US President Donald Tramp. At 16:00 hours in the United States, information on the number of sold homes will be published, which can also be reflected in the exchange rate of this currency pair. During the Asian trade, the euro weakened against the US dollar by 0.05%.

#GBP/USD
The British pound strengthened during Asian trading. Today at 2:15 pm, the Governor of the Bank of England Mark Carney will deliver a speech, while at 16:00 in the United States, information on the number of sold houses will be published, which can also be reflected in the exchange rate of this currency pair. During the Asian trade, the British pound strengthened against the US dollar by 0.07%.

#USD/JPY
The US dollar strengthened against the Japanese yen during Asian trading. The news that the Senate of the US Congress adopted the final version of the tax reform bill, strengthened the US dollar. At 16:00 hours in the United States, information on the number of sold homes will be published, which can also be reflected in the exchange rate of this currency pair. During the Asian trading, the US dollar strengthened against the Japanese yen by 0.12%.

#GOLD
Gold prices strengthened during Asian trade. After exhibiting the final version of the law on tax reform in the Senate of the US Congress, the price of gold slightly strengthened. At 16:00 hours in the United States, information on the number of sold homes sold will be published, which can be reflected in the price of this precious metal. During Asian trading, the price of gold increased by 0.16%. During Asian trading, the price of gold increased by 0.16%.

#OIL
During Asian trade, the price of crude oil has strengthened. Yesterday’s report by the US Petroleum Institute on crude oil stocks showed a higher decline in stockpiles than expected, which has affected the rise in crude oil prices. Today at 4:30 pm, the US government will publish a report on the stocks of this fuel, which can also affect the price of this fuel. During the Asian trade, the price of crude oil increased by 0.24%.

#DAX30
Dax30 declined by 0.72% on Tuesday. The highest growth was registered in the food industry, technology and transport. Of the winners, Lufthansa (+ 1.58%) and the loser of Deutsche Bank (-1.73%) were singled out. The index of volatility on the German index, which shows the sentiment (fear) of the investor regarding the expected volatility in the future period, has increased to 12.03 points, ie it has increased by 4.51%.

281

#EUR/USD
During the Asian trade, the euro recorded a slight increase against the dollar. This morning, the euro is exchanged for $ 1.2299, which at the beginning of the European session shows a strengthening of the euro by 0.11%. At 2:15 pm, the US Labor Market Report (ADP) will be published as an overture to the official government (NFP) report on Friday. At 15:45, Markit’s report on the indicator (sentiment) of activities in the US service sector is expected, as well as the aggregate indicator for the entire economy.

#GBP/USD
During the Asian trading, the dollar weakened slightly against the British pound. This morning, this currency pair is at $ 1.3518 per pound, which means a symbolic pound increase of 0.01%. At 10:30, an indicator (sentiment) of economic activity in the UK service sector is expected for December. At 2:15 pm, the US Labor Market Report (ADP) will be published as an overture to the official government (NFP) report on Friday. At 15:45, Markit’s report on the indicator (sentiment) of activities in the US service sector is expected, as well as the aggregate indicator for the entire economy.

#USD/JPY
During Asian trading, yen weakly weakened against the dollar. This morning, this currency pair is traded at 112.58 yen per dollar, which makes the dollar a stronger yen by 0.06% at the beginning of the European session. At 2:15 pm, the US Labor Market Report (ADP) will be published as an overture to the official government (NFP) report on Friday. At 15:45, Markit’s report on the indicator (sentiment) of activities in the US service sector is expected, as well as the aggregate indicator for the entire economy.

#GOLD
The price of gold has been declining slightly during the Asian trade. The notes from the last Fed meeting showed that members of the monetary committee were hawkish. During Asian trading, the price of gold is around $ 1310 for a fine ounce.

#OIL
During Asian trade, crude oil prices are rising. The growing sentiment is supported by a falling dollar, mild geopolitical instability, and excellent indicators from China. At 17:00, a weekly weekly stock report will be published in the United States. At the end of the Asian session, crude oil is traded at around $ 62.20 per barrel, which gives an increase of about 0.92%.

#DAX30
Dax30 rallied initially during the trading session on Wednesday, after initially gapping higher, and it rose by 0.17 %

282

#EUR/USD
During the Asian trading, the euro registered a symbolic decline against the dollar, confirming its long-term upward trend. This morning, retail data in Germany for November was well above expectations. At around 8:40 am, the euro is exchanged for $ 1.203, which at the beginning of the European session shows a symbolic gain of 0.03%. At 11:00, preliminary data on inflation for December in the euro zone will be published. At 2:30 pm, a regular (NFP) report from the US labor market will be published, as the most important macroeconomic indicator this week.

#GBP/USD
During Asian trading, the dollar weakened against the British pound. At around 8:40 am, this currency pair is at $ 1,3558 per pound, which means a pound gain of 0.07%. There are no economic publications from the UK today. At 10:30, an indicator (sentiment) of economic activity in the UK service sector is expected for December. At 2:30 pm, a regular (NFP) report from the US labor market will be published as the most important macroeconomic indicator this week

#USD/JPY
During Asian trading, yen weakened against the dollar. At around 8:40 am, this currency pair is traded at 113.09 yen per dollar which at the beginning of the European session makes the dollar stronger compared to the yen by 0.3%. At 2:30 pm, a regular (NFP) report from the US labor market will be published, as the most important macroeconomic indicator this week.

#GOLD
The price of gold has been slightly declining during the Asian trade since the US dollar is recovering after yesterday’s published solid data (ADP) on employment. During Asian trading, the price of gold is around $ 1,318 for a fine ounce. At 2:30 pm, a regular (NFP) report from the US labor market will be published as the most important macroeconomic indicator this week, which can be reflected in the price of gold.

#OIL
During Asian trade, the price of crude oil declined. Yesterday, regular hourly data from the United States was of mixed character (stocks of crude oil dropped more than expected, but derivatives of stocks rose). Before the end of the Asian session, crude oil is traded about $ 61.78 per barrel, which gives a drop of around 0.37%.

#DAX30
Dax30 rose on Thursday (+ 1.46%), closing at 13168 points. This morning, retail data in Germany for November was well above expectations. The winner of the day was the shares of Linde (+ 3.07%).

283

#EUR/USD
During the Asian trade, the weakening of the dollar is being pressed by a growing concern whether Congress will adopt an extension of the government’s budgetary funding program that expires on Friday evening. This morning, the euro is exchanged for $ 1.2262, which at the beginning of the European session shows a strengthening of the euro by 0.2%. Today there are no major economic news and announcements from the euro zone. At 4:00 pm, a consumer sentiment indicator in the United States is expected to compile and publish the Michigan University.

#GBP/USD
During Asian trading, the dollar weakened against the British pound. This morning, this currency pair is at $ 1,3906 per pound, which means a pound gain of 0.06%. At 10:30, retail sales in the UK are expected for December. At 4:00 pm, a consumer sentiment indicator in the United States is expected to compile and publish the Michigan University.

#USD/JPY
During the Asian trade, the Japanese yen strengthened against the dollar. This morning, this currency pair is traded at the level of 110.78 yen per dollar, which at the beginning of the European session makes the dollar symbolically weaker than the yen by 0.29%. At 4:00 pm, a consumer sentiment indicator in the United States is expected to compile and publish the Michigan University.

#GOLD
The price of gold is on the rise during Asian trade due to the weakening of the US dollar, which is being pressed by the growing concern whether the Congress will adopt an extension of the Government’s budgetary funding program, which expires on Friday evening. The price of gold this morning is traded around $ 1,331 for a fine ounce.

#OIL
During Asian trade, the price of crude oil declined. Yesterday the stock drop was higher than expected, but negative sentiment prevailed due to production growth in the US and (anticipated) fall in demand due to the near-end of winter in the northern hemisphere. At 10:00 am, a global report on the state of the oil market will be published, and at 7:00 pm, a regular weekly report on the number of crude oil wells in the United States is expected. At the end of the Asian session, crude oil is traded about $ 63.13 per barrel, which gives a drop of around 1.28%.

#DAX30
Dax30 rose on Thursday (+ 0.74%) closing at 13281.43 points. The producer price index in Germany this morning remained at the level of expectation. The winner of yesterday was Infineon’s (+ 5.55%) share.