EUR/USD
Last German and Eurozone Manufacturing PMI data came very disappointing. The European Central Bank needs to review how it conducts policy given its failure to lift inflation back to target despite years of extraordinary stimulus.
On the other hand, the U.S. Federal Reserve abandoned forecasts for any interest rate hikes this year.
As written in the previous commentaries, we were in clear oversold phase. As written, many attempts to regain 1.1370 followed and now we expect a consolidation around that level.
Our special Fibo Retracement is confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2012:
Weekly Trend: Neutral
1st Resistance: 1. 1370
2nd Resistance: 1.1567
1st Support: 1.1237
2nd Support: 1.1100
EUR
Recent Facts:
30th of May, German Unemployment Change + German CPI (Preliminary)
Better than Expected
1st of June, Eurozone CPI
Higher than Expected
15th of June, Eurozone CPI
As Expected (1.9%)
29th of June, German Job Market
Better than Expected
10th of July, German ZEW Economic Sentiment
Worse than Expected
24th of July: German Manufacturing
Better than Expected
30th of July: German CPI
Lower than Expected
31st of July, Eurozone CPI + German Unemployment
CPI Higher than Expected, German Unemployment Worse than Expected
1st of August, German Manufacturing
Worse than Expected
14th of August, German and Eurozone GDP (Preliminary release)
Better than Expected
23rd of August, German Manufacturing PMI
Worse than Expected
31st of August, Eurozone CPI
Lower than Expected
21st of September, French Manufacturing, German Manufacturing
Worse than Expected
30th of October, German Job Market + Eurozone GDP
Worse than Expected
31st of October, Eurozone CPI
Higher than Expected
14th of November, German and Eurozone GDP
As Expected
23rd of November, German Manufacturing PMI
Worse than Expected
29th of November, German Unemployment, German CPI
Better than Expected
30th of November, Eurozone CPI (Preliminary release)
Lower than Expected
5th of December, Eurozone Services PMI
Better than Expected
14th of December, German Manufacturing PMI
Worse than Expected
17th of December, Eurozone CPI
Lower than Expected
4th of January, German Unemployment + CPI (Preliminary release)
German Unemployment Better than Expected, CPI ticked Lower than Expected
24th of January, German Manufacturing PMI
Worse than expected
21st of February, German Manufacturing PMI
Worse than expected
22nd of February, Eurozone CPI
As Expected
22nd of March, German Manufacturing PMI, Eurozone Manufacturing PMI
Worse than expected
USD
Recent Facts:
4th of May, Nonfarm Payrolls and Unemployment Rate
Nonfarm payrolls Worse than expected, Unemployment Rate Better than Expected
10th of May, CPI
Lower than expected
15th of May, Retail Sales
Worse than expected
30th of May, GDP (Preliminary release)
Worse than expected
1st of June, U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls and Unemployment Rate
Better than Expected
12th of June, Core CPI
Higher than Expected
27th of June, Durable Goods Orders
Better than Expected
28th of June, GDP
Worse than expected
6th of July, Nonfarm Payrolls and Unemployment Rate
Nonfarm Payrolls Better than Expected, Unemployment Rate Worse than expected
11th of July, PPI
Better than Expected
12th of July, CPI
As Expected (0.2%, 2.3%)
27th of July: GDP
As Expected
3rd of August, Nonfarm Payrolls
Worse than expected
9th of August, PPI
Lower than expected
15th of August, Retail Sales
Better than Expected
24th of August, Durable Goods Orders
Worse than expected
29th of August, GDP (Preliminary release)
Higher than Expected
13th of September, Core CPI
Lower than expected
26th of September, Interest Rates Decision
The Federal Reserve raised interest rates by a quarter point (increased the overnight funds rate to a range of 2.00% to 2.25%) and removed its use of “accommodative”.
27th of September, Core PCE Prices + U.S. GDP Price Index
Higher than Expected
3rd of October, ADP Nonfarm Employment Change, ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected
5th of September, U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls and Unemployment Change.
Nonfarm Payrolls Worse than expected, Unemployment Change Better than Expected
11th of October, CPI
Lower than expected
15th of October, Retail Sales
Worse than expected
2nd of November, U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls, Unemployment Rate
Better than Expected
14th of November, CPI
Lower than expected
28th of November, GDP
Worse than expected
7th of December, U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls and Unemployment Rate
Nonfarm Payrolls Worse than expected
14th of December, Retail Sales
Better than Expected
19th of December, Fed Meeting
The Federal Open Market Committee raised the fed funds rate 25 basis points but signalled Slower Pace of Hikes in 2019
21st of December, GDP
Worse than expected
1st of February, Nonfarm Payrolls, Unemployment Rate
Better than Expected
14th of February, Retail Sales
Worse than expected
GBP/USD
Goldman Sachs recently lowered its expectations of UK Prime Minister Theresa May’s Brexit deal getting ratified, and hiked its estimate of the chances of a “no-deal” exit from the European Union.
UK CPI (Inflation) data ticked up.
The U.S. Federal Reserve abandoned forecasts for any interest rate hikes this year.
1.3203 Resistance worked fiercely. Now we have 2 scenarios. Scenario 1 is with bulls buying on 1.3090 for getting over 1.33 again. Scenario 2 leads down to 1.28 (if 1.302 Area will be broken).
Our special Fibo Retracement is confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2001:
Weekly Trend: Bullish
1st Resistance: 1.3203
2nd Resistance: 1.3285
1st Support: 1.3023
2nd Support: 1.2880
GBP
Recent Facts:
4th of April, Construction PMI
Worse than Expected
5th of April, Services PMI
Worse than Expected
11th of April, Manufacturing Production
Worse than Expected
17th of April, Job Market
Better than Expected
18th of April, UK CPI
Lower than Expected
19th of April, Retail Sales
Worse than Expected
27th of April, UK GDP
Worse than Expected
1st of May, Manufacturing PMI
Worse than Expected
10th of May, BoE
The Bank of England left interest rates on hold and said that any future rate increases are likely to be gradual and limited in their extent
15th of May, Job Market data
Worse than Expected
23rd of May, CPI
Lower than Expected
24th of May, Retail Sales
Better than Expected
25th of May, GDP (Preliminary release)
As Expected
1st of June, Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected
11th of June, Manufacturing Production
Worse than Expected
12th of June, Job Market
Better than Expected
14th of June, Retail Sales
Better than Expected
29th of June, GDP
Better than Expected
3rd of July, Construction PMI
Better than Expected
10th of July, UK Manufacturing Production
Worse than Expected
18th of July, CPI
Lower than Expected
1st of August, Construction PMI
Better than Expected
14th of August, Job Market
Worse than Expected
10th of September, Manufacturing Production
Worse than Expected
11th of September, Job Market
Better than Expected
19th of September, CPI
Higher than Expected
20th of September, Retail Sales
Better than Expected
3rd of October, Services PMI
Worse than Expected
10th of October, UK Manufacturing PMI + GDP
Worse than Expected
16th of October, Job Market
Worse than Expected
17th of October, CPI
Lower than Expected
1st of November, Manufacturing PMI + Inflation Report
Manufacturing PMI Worse than Expected (2-years low)
5th of November, Services PMI
Worse than Expected
9th of November: Manufacturing Production
Better than Expected
13th of November: Job Market
Worse than Expected
14th of November, CPI
Lower than Expected
15th of November, Retail Sales
Worse than Expected
5th of December, Services PMI
Worse than Expected (worst data since 2016)
10th of December, GDP
Worse than Expected
10th of December, Manufacturing Production
Worse than Expected
11th of December, Job Market
Worse than Expected
20th of December, Retail Sales
Better than Expected
2nd of January, Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected
3rd of January, Construction PMI
Worse than Expected
4th of January, Services PMI
Better than Expected
16th of January, CPI
As Expected
18th of January, Retail Sales
Worse than Expected
22nd of January, UK Job Market
Better than Expected
5th of February: Services PMI
Worse than Expected
11th of February: GDP, Manufacturing Production
Worse than Expected
13th of February, CPI
Lower than Expected
19th of February, Job Market
Worse than Expected
19th of March, Job Market
Contrasted
20th of March, CPI
Higher than Expected
21st of March, Retail Sales data
Better than Expected
USD
Recent Facts:
4th of May, Nonfarm Payrolls and Unemployment Rate
Nonfarm payrolls Worse than expected, Unemployment Rate Better than Expected
10th of May, CPI
Lower than expected
15th of May, Retail Sales
Worse than Expected
30th of May, GDP (Preliminary release)
Worse than expected
1st of June, U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls and Unemployment Rate
Better than Expected
12th of June, Core CPI
Higher than Expected
27th of June, Durable Goods Orders
Better than Expected
28th of June, GDP
Worse than expected
6th of July, Nonfarm Payrolls and Unemployment Rate
Nonfarm Payrolls Better than Expected, Unemployment Rate Worse than expected
11th of July, PPI
Better than Expected
12th of July, CPI
As Expected (0.2%, 2.3%)
27th of July: GDP
As Expected
3rd of August, Nonfarm Payrolls
Worse than expected
9th of August, PPI
Lower than expected
15th of August, Retail Sales
Better than Expected
24th of August, Durable Goods Orders
Worse than expected
29th of August, GDP (Preliminary release)
Higher than Expected
13th of September, Core CPI
Lower than expected
26th of September, Interest Rates Decision
The Federal Reserve raised interest rates by a quarter point (increased the overnight funds rate to a range of 2.00% to 2.25%) and removed its use of “accommodative”.
27th of September, Core PCE Prices + U.S. GDP Price Index
Higher than Expected
3rd of October, ADP Nonfarm Employment Change, ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected
5th of September, U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls and Unemployment Change.
Nonfarm Payrolls Worse than expected, Unemployment Change Better than Expected
11th of October, CPI
Lower than expected
15th of October, Retail Sales
Worse than expected
2nd of November, U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls, Unemployment Rate
Better than Expected
14th of November, CPI
Lower than expected
28th of November, GDP
Worse than expected
7th of December, U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls and Unemployment Rate
Nonfarm Payrolls Worse than expected
14th of December, Retail Sales
Better than Expected
19th of December, Fed Meeting
The Federal Open Market Committee raised the fed funds rate 25 basis points but signalled Slower Pace of Hikes in 2019
21st of December, GDP
Worse than expected
1st of February, Nonfarm Payrolls, Unemployment Rate
Better than Expected
14th of February, Retail Sales
Worse than expected
AUD/USD
A fall in funding costs for Australia’s biggest banks is raising the prospect that they could hand on the savings to consumers in the form of lower lending rates, which would in turn reduce pressure on the central bank to ease policy.
In the U.S., the U.S. Federal Reserve abandoned forecasts for any interest rate hikes this year, in Australia last Australia Job Market came worse than expected.
A measure of Australian consumer confidence slumped to its lowest in over a year in March, adding to recent signs of weakness in the economy.
As written in the previous commentaries, we expect a consolidation around 0.719, Supply Area, to re-occur. In the opposite scenario, a break below 0.698 could lead down to 1.675
Our special Fibo Retracements are confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2012:
Weekly Trend: Neutral
1st Resistance: 0.7250
2nd Resistance: 0.7301
1st Support: 0.7000
2nd Support: 0.6960
AUD
Recent Facts:
5th of December, RBA Interest Rate decision and Statement
Economy is growing
6th of December, GDP
Worse than Expected
14th of December, Employment data
Better than Expected
11th of January, Retail Sales
Better than Expected
18th of January, Employment Change
Australia Employment change better than expected, Unemployment Rate worsens
1st of February, AIG Manufacturing Index
Better than Expected
1st of February, Building Approvals
Worse than Expected
6th of February, Australia Retail Sales
Worse than Expected
9th of February, Home loans
Worse than Expected
15th of February, Employment Change
Better than Expected
6th of February, Retail Sales
Worse than Expected
22nd of March, Employment Change
Worse than Expected
4th of April, Australia Retail Sales
Better than Expected
5th of April, Trade Balance
Better than Expected
25th of April, CPI
Lower than Expected
7th of May, Australia Retail Sales
Worse than Expected
15th of May, RBA Minute Meeting
Dovish
17th of May, Employment Change, Unemployment Rate
Employment Change Slightly Better than Expected, Unemployment Rate Higher than Expected
6th of June, Australia GDP
Better than Expected
14th of June, Australia Job Market
Worse than Expected
4th of July, Australia Retail Sales
Slightly better than Expected
19th of July, Employment Change
Better than Expected
25th of July, CPI
Lower than Expected
1st of August, AIG Manufacturing Index
Worse than Expected
2nd of August, Retail Sales,
Better than Expected
16th of August, Employment Change
Worse than Expected
30th of August, HIA New Home Sales + Private New Capital Expenditure
Worse than Expected
12th of September, Westpac Consumer Sentiment
Worse than Expected
13th of September, Employment Change
Better than Expected
5th of October, Retail Sales
As Expected
18th of October, Job Market
Worse than Expected
30th of October, Building Approvals
Worse than Expected
31st of October, Australia CPI
Lower than Expected
1st of November, Australia Retail Sales
Worse than Expected
15th of November, Australia Employment Change
Better than Expected
29th of November, Australia New Home Sales + Private New Capital Expenditure
Worse than Expected
5th of December, GDP
Worse than Expected
11th of January, Retail Sales
Better than Expected
24th of January, Employment Change
Better than Expected
30th of January, CPI
Better than Expected
5th of February, Retail Sales
Worse than Expected
21st of February, Job Market
Better than Expected
21st of March, Job Market
Worse than Expected
USD
Recent Facts:
4th of May, Nonfarm Payrolls and Unemployment Rate
Nonfarm payrolls Worse than expected, Unemployment Rate Better than Expected
10th of May, CPI
Lower than expected
15th of May, Retail Sales
Worse than Expected
30th of May, U.S. GDP (Preliminary release)
Worse than expected
1st of June, U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls and Unemployment Rate
Better than Expected
12th of June, Core CPI
Higher than Expected
27th of June, Durable Goods Orders
Better than Expected
28th of June, GDP
Worse than expected
6th of July, Nonfarm Payrolls and Unemployment Rate
Nonfarm Payrolls Better than Expected, Unemployment Rate Worse than expected
11th of July, PPI
Better than Expected
12th of July, CPI
As Expected (0.2%, 2.3%)
27th of July: GDP
As Expected
3rd of August, Nonfarm Payrolls
Worse than expected
9th of August, PPI
Lower than expected
15th of August, Retail Sales
Better than Expected
24th of August, Durable Goods Orders
Worse than expected
29th of August, GDP (Preliminary release)
Higher than Expected
13th of September, Core CPI
Lower than expected
26th of September, Interest Rates Decision
The Federal Reserve raised interest rates by a quarter point (increased the overnight funds rate to a range of 2.00% to 2.25%) and removed its use of “accommodative”.
27th of September, Core PCE Prices + U.S. GDP Price Index
Higher than Expected
3rd of October, ADP Nonfarm Employment Change, ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected
5th of September, U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls and Unemployment Change.
Nonfarm Payrolls Worse than expected, Unemployment Change Better than Expected
11th of October, CPI
Lower than expected
15th of October, Retail Sales
Worse than expected
2nd of November, U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls, Unemployment Rate
Better than Expected
14th of November, CPI
Lower than expected
28th of November, GDP
Worse than expected
7th of December, U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls and Unemployment Rate
Nonfarm Payrolls Worse than expected
14th of December, Retail Sales
Better than Expected
19th of December, Fed Meeting
The Federal Open Market Committee raised the fed funds rate 25 basis points but signalled Slower Pace of Hikes in 2019
21st of December, GDP
Worse than expected
1st of February, Nonfarm Payrolls, Unemployment Rate
Better than Expected
14th of February, Retail Sales
Worse than expected