EUR/USD
U.S. ADP Nonfarm Employment and ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI better than expected.
Last German Manufacturing PMI data lower than expected.
Rate setters have also been divided about whether to redefine the ECB’s policy goal of an inflation rate of just under 2%. Outgoing ECB President Mario Draghi said in July that extending that to both sides of 2% was considered at that month’s meeting, and that there would be no cap at that level.
On the other hand, U.S. interest rates futures rose on Friday as Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said the central bank will do what it can to preserve the longest U.S. economic expansion on record, supporting bets on a further decline in key borrowing costs.
Last German Manufacturing PMI data came better than expected.
As we wrote previously, eyes on the bouncing back to 1.13 important Supply Area. Bulls first target: 1.137, then consolidation and eyes on 1.149.
Our special Fibo Retracement is confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2012:
Weekly Trend: Neutral
1st Resistance: 1.1100
2nd Resistance: 1.1268
1st Support: 1.0980
2nd Support: 1.0870
EUR
Recent Facts:
5th of December, Eurozone Services PMI
Better than Expected
14th of December, German Manufacturing PMI
Worse than Expected
17th of December, Eurozone CPI
Lower than Expected
4th of January, German Unemployment + CPI (Preliminary release)
German Unemployment Better than Expected, CPI ticked Lower than Expected
24th of January, German Manufacturing PMI
Worse than expected
21st of February, German Manufacturing PMI
Worse than expected
22nd of February, Eurozone CPI
As Expected
22nd of March, German Manufacturing PMI, Eurozone Manufacturing PMI
Worse than expected
28th of March, Spanish and German CPI data
Lower than expected
29th of March, German Job Market, Eurozone CPI (Preliminary)
Worse than expected
1st of April, German Manufacturing PMI
Worse than expected
1st of April, Eurozone CPI (Preliminary release)
Lower than expected
18th of April, German Manufacturing PMI
Worse than expected
30th of April, German Unemployment Change
Better than expected
3rd of May, Eurozone CPI (Inflation) data
Higher than expected
23rd of May, German Manufacturing PMI
Worse than expected
4th of June, CPI, Preliminary release
Lower than expected
5th of June, Services PMI
Better than expected
21st of June, German Manufacturing PMI
Better than expected
17th of July, CPI
Higher than expected
24th of July, German Manufacturing PMI
Worse than Expected
25th of July, ECB Interest Rate Statement
European Central Bank signaled a future cut in its official interest rates to new record lows
22nd of August, German Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected
2nd of September, German Manufacturing PMI
Worse than expected
USD
Recent Facts:
26th of September, Interest Rates Decision
The Federal Reserve raised interest rates by a quarter point (increased the overnight funds rate to a range of 2.00% to 2.25%) and removed its use of “accommodative”.
27th of September, Core PCE Prices + U.S. GDP Price Index
Higher than Expected
3rd of October, ADP Nonfarm Employment Change, ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected
5th of September, U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls and Unemployment Change.
Nonfarm Payrolls Worse than expected, Unemployment Change Better than Expected
11th of October, CPI
Lower than expected
15th of October, Retail Sales
Worse than expected
2nd of November, U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls, Unemployment Rate
Better than Expected
14th of November, CPI
Lower than expected
28th of November, GDP
Worse than expected
7th of December, U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls and Unemployment Rate
Nonfarm Payrolls Worse than expected
14th of December, Retail Sales
Better than Expected
19th of December, Fed Meeting
The Federal Open Market Committee raised the fed funds rate 25 basis points but signalled Slower Pace of Hikes in 2019
21st of December, GDP
Worse than expected
1st of February, Nonfarm Payrolls, Unemployment Rate
Better than Expected
14th of February, Retail Sales
Worse than expected
28th of March, U.S. GDP data
Lower than expected
5th of April, Nonfarm Payrolls, Employment Change
Better than Expected
10th of April, Core CPI (Inflation)
Lower than expected
18th of April, Retail Sales
Better than Expected
26th of April, U.S. GDP data
U.S. GDP data up but U.S. Inflation still on the downbeat
1st of May: Fed FOMC Statement
U.S. Fed Chair Powell said the central bank’s current path of monetary policy was appropriate
3rd of May, Nonfarm Payrolls and Unemployment Rate
Better than Expected
3rd of May, ISM Non-Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI)
Worse than Expected
10th of May, CPI
As Expected
15th of May, Retail Sales
Worse than Expected
30th of May, GDP
GDP data as expected but GDP Price Index continues its freefall
5th of June, ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI
Better than expected
7th of June, Nonfarm Payrolls
Worse than Expected
12th of June, CPI
Lower than Expected
19th of June, FOMC Statement
Dovish (Interest Rate cut imminent)
25th of June, CB Consumer Confidence
Lower than Expected
27th of June, GDP data
As Expected
5th of July, Nonfarm Payrolls and Unemployment Rate
Nonfarm payrolls Better than expected but Unemployment Rate ticked up
11th of July, Core CPI
Higher than expected
16th of July, U.S. Retail Sales data
Better than expected
24th of July, German and Eurozone Manufacturing PMI data
Worse than Expected
26th of July, GDP data
Better than expected
31st of July, German Unemployment
Better than expected
1st of August, ISM Manufacturing PMI
Worse than Expected
5th of September, ADP Nonfarm U.S. ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected
GBP/USD
UK Job Market shows some resilience. And recent UK GDP and Manufacturing data showed more resilience than expected.
British pound fell to its lowest since January 2017 amid political uncertainty as Prime Minister Boris Johnson tried to stymie lawmakers’ efforts to stop a no-deal Brexit.
UK economic and political fears that had worsened for weeks finally lightened slightly. Hopes that Britain’s opposition parties could cooperate to oust the UK government and prevent a no-deal Brexit accounted for much of last week’s Pound recovery. However, while those hopes persist, fears that a no-deal Brexit could become reality under the current government are keeping significant pressure on the Sterling and UK outlooks.
We are still Neutral. 1.2060 area is at test and we think this is a fake breakout. We expect a consolidation around our first Resistance in area 1.2214 in the next days.
Our special Fibo Retracement is confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2001:
Weekly Trend: Neutral
1st Resistance: 1.2214
2nd Resistance: 1.2405
1st Support: 1.2060
2nd Support: 1.1927
GBP
Recent Facts:
19th of February, Job Market
Worse than Expected
19th of March, Job Market
Contrasted
20th of March, CPI
Higher than Expected
21st of March, Retail Sales data
Better than Expected
29th of March, GDP
Better than Expected
2nd of April, Construction PMI
Worse than Expected
3rd of April, Services PMI
Worse than Expected
10th of April, GDP and Manufacturing Production
Better than Expected
17th of April, CPI
Lower than Expected
18th of April, Retail Sales
Better than Expected
1st of May, Manufacturing PMI
Worse than Expected
10th of May, Industrial Production and Trade Balance
Better than Expected
22nd of May, CPI
Lower than Expected
24th of May, Retail Sales
Better than Expected
4th of June, Construction PMI
Worse than Expected
10th of June, GDP data
Worse than Expected
2nd of July, Construction PMI
Worse than Expected (Lowest since 2009)
3rd of July, Services PMI
Worse than Expected
10th of July, Manufacturing Production data
Worse than Expected
16th of July, UK Job Market data
Worse than Expected
18th of July, Retail Sales
Better than Expected
5th of August, Services PMI
Better than Expected
9th of August, GDP data + Manufacturing Production
Worse than Expected
2nd of September, Manufacturing PMI
Worse than expected
9th of September, GDP and Manufacturing Production
Better than Expected
10th of September, Job Market
Better than Expected
USD
See above.
AUD/USD
Eyes to today U.S. ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI.
Australia Retail Sales worse than expected while last U.S. Retail Sales data confirmed a good uptrend.
The RBA has remained tight-lipped about the timing of its next move, saying only that it would consider further easing if needed. Financial markets are pricing in another RBA cut later this year and a follow-on move to 0.5% in February.
Recently, Australia CPI data ticked higher than expected. Australia Job Market data worse than expected.
Official data showed China’s economic growth cooled to 6.2% in the second quarter, the weakest annual pace in at least 27 years, amid trade pressure from the United States. In the first half, the economy grew 6.3 percent compared with a year earlier.
As we wrote previously, we are sit in important Demand Area. We expect a bounce up to 0.687 area and a consolidation phase around that important level.
Our special Fibo Retracements are confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2012:
Weekly Trend: Oversold
1st Resistance: 0.6802
2nd Resistance: 0.6875
1st Support: 0.6710
2nd Support: 0.6630
AUD
Recent Facts:
6th of June, Australia GDP
Better than Expected
14th of June, Australia Job Market
Worse than Expected
4th of July, Australia Retail Sales
Slightly better than Expected
19th of July, Employment Change
Better than Expected
25th of July, CPI
Lower than Expected
1st of August, AIG Manufacturing Index
Worse than Expected
2nd of August, Retail Sales,
Better than Expected
16th of August, Employment Change
Worse than Expected
30th of August, HIA New Home Sales + Private New Capital Expenditure
Worse than Expected
12th of September, Westpac Consumer Sentiment
Worse than Expected
13th of September, Employment Change
Better than Expected
5th of October, Retail Sales
As Expected
18th of October, Job Market
Worse than Expected
30th of October, Building Approvals
Worse than Expected
31st of October, Australia CPI
Lower than Expected
1st of November, Australia Retail Sales
Worse than Expected
15th of November, Australia Employment Change
Better than Expected
29th of November, Australia New Home Sales + Private New Capital Expenditure
Worse than Expected
5th of December, GDP
Worse than Expected
11th of January, Retail Sales
Better than Expected
24th of January, Employment Change
Better than Expected
30th of January, CPI
Better than Expected
5th of February, Retail Sales
Worse than Expected
21st of February, Job Market
Better than Expected
21st of March, Job Market
Worse than Expected
3rd of March, Retail Sales
Better than Expected
18th of April, Job Market
Better than Expected
24th of April, CPI
Lower than expected
7th of May, Australia Retail Sales
Worse than Expected (weakest quarter in seven years)
13th of May, Home Loans
Worse than Expected
16th of May, Unemployment Rate
Higher than expected
4th of June, Retail Sales and RBA Interest Rate Statement
Retail Sales Worse than Expected, RBA cuts interest Rates as expected at 1.25%
5th of June, GDP
Worse than Expected
13th of June, Employment Change
Better than Expected
3rd of July, Australia Trade Balance and Building Approvals
Better than Expected
4th of July, Australia Retail Sales
Worse than Expected
18th of July, Job Market data
Worse than Expected
31st of July, CPI
Higher than Expected
2nd of August, Retail Sales data
Better than Expected
3rd of September, Retail sales
Worse than Expected
USD
Recent Facts:
See above.