-EURUSD bullish pivot above 1.28
-AUDUSD bullish pivot at .6562
-NZDUSD breaks Elliott channel
-USDJPY 101-103 is the topping zone
-USDCHF towards 1.13
-EURJPY crosses above 55 day SMA
-EURCAD rally could accelerate
-AUDNZD topping?
[B]EURO / US DOLLAR[/B]
[B]Classical Outlook:[/B] Could be starting to show signs of a base with the weekly close by opening levels setting up a bullish dragonfly/hammer-like formation. Look for a break back above 1.2755 to confirm basing prospects and open a minimum upside extension back towards 1.3095. Inability to break back above 1.2755 in the coming week will however negate and keep the pressures on the downside, exposing 1.2330. [B]Elliott Wave Outlook:[/B] Trading above 1.2816 triggers bullish bias, confirming that ending diagonal from 1.3333 is complete. Continuation then expected to at least 1.33. Until break above 1.2816, a larger diagonal may be underway in a choppy decline towards 1.23 prior to a sharp reversal.
[B]
BRITISH POUND / US DOLLAR[/B]
[B]Classical Outlook:[/B] The market continues to consolidate above the recent multi-year trend lows from January at 1.3500. With the trend still so intensely bearish, we continue to favor looking for opportunities to sell into rallies, in anticipation of a bearish resumption and break back below 1.3500. A break back above 1.4665 would be required to delay the structure and potentially suggest a shift in the trend. [B]Elliott Wave Outlook:[/B] A flat may be forming from 1.35. Trading above 1.4665 triggers bull trend (wave c of the flat) to above 1.50 and on to 1.5728. Until then, downside pressures persist and a test of 1.35 is possible in wave b of the flat.
[B]
AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR / US DOLLAR[/B]
[B]Classical Outlook:[/B] A weekly doji close warns of potential upside after setbacks finally stalled out following three consecutive negative weekly closes. Look for a break back above 0.6555 to confirm short-term basing and accelerate gains back towards key medium-term resistance at 0.6850, which guards against the 2009 highs at 0.7270. Below 0.6285 however, keeps the bear structure intact and exposes 0.6005. [B]Elliott Wave Outlook:[/B] Rallying above .6562 triggers bull trend in what could be wave Y of a complex correction from .6005 that will end above .7272. Below .6562 keeps open possibility of a break below .60.
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[B]
NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR / US DOLLAR[/B]
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[B]Classical Outlook:[/B] There is some real evidence of basing on the weekly with the market putting in a bullish doji close after initially declining to fresh multi-year lows by 0.4895 on Wednesday. Daily studies are overextended and the weekly RSI is only just now starting to turn up from sub-30 levels. As such, we recommend looking to buy the pair on a break back above 0.5095 in anticipation of a more sizable medium-term corrective rally to 0.5450. [B]Elliott Wave Outlook:[/B] Trading through the Elliott channel indicates a reversal. RSI divergence strongly suggests the drop from .5454 was a 5th wave. A recovery to at least .5454 is favored.
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[B]
US DOLLAR / JAPANESE YEN[/B]
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[B]Classical Outlook:[/B] The weekly candle has taken the form of a bearish gravestone doji which more often than not confirms that a top is in place. Look for a break back below 96.55 to confirm and open deeper setbacks towards the previous double bottom neckline resistance now turned support by 94.60. Only back above 99.70 ultimately negates and signals resumption of broader up-move. [B]Elliott Wave Outlook:[/B] While the advance from .8709 is viewed as corrective in the bigger picture, structure does not appear complete. Wave 5 of C should end in the 101-103 area.
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[B]
US DOLLAR / CANADIAN DOLLAR[/B]
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[B]Classical Outlook:[/B] Price action has been constructive following the break of the multi-day triangle, and the market has been posting consecutive weekly higher highs and positive closes. Look for gains to continue to extend, with an initial retest of the 2008 highs by 1.3020. However, inability to clear 1.3020 followed by a subsequent break back below 1.2715 will be viewed as bearish and delay the longer-term bull structure. [B]Elliott Wave Outlook:[/B] Staying above 1.2350 (although price ideally remains above .2677) keeps the breakout scenario from a 4th wave triangle intact.
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[B]
US DOLLAR / SWISS FRANC[/B]
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[B]Classical Outlook:[/B] While the daily chart shows an extremely choppy and directionless trade, the weekly picture provides more clarity with the market still very much locked within a well defined range trade going back to late January 2009. We continue to recommend playing the respective range high-lows until a confirmed and sustained break above 1.1890 or back below 1.1400. Ultimately, we favor an eventual break above 1.1890. [B]Elliott Wave Outlook:[/B] Price is retracing the complete ending diagonal that began at 1.13. As a second wave from 1.1891, the decline could be deep, reaching the 50% at 1.11 or even the 61.8% at 1.0925.
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[B]
EURO / JAPANESE YEN[/B]
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[B]Classical Outlook:[/B] The cross looks like it is in the process of attempting to carve out a major double bottom. The market has now failed to establish below the 115.00 handle in late 2008 and then again in early 2009 and has been slowly recovering back towards neckline resistance which comes in at 131.05. An eventual break above 131.05 would ultimately project gains back towards the 145.00 area over the longer-term. Below 121.75 negates. [B]Elliott Wave Outlook:[/B] Far from clear but favored is the idea that wave C of a flat is working higher and will end above 131. Only below 114.86 triggers resumption of bear with confidence.
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[B]
EURO / BRITISH POUND[/B]
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[B]Classical Outlook:[/B] A bullish weekly close and break back above the previous weekly high, now opens the door for more significant gains over the coming weeks. Ultimately, any upside is still classed as corrective with a medium-term lower top now sought out below 0.9520, ideally in the 0.9200 area, ahead of the next major downside extension below 0.8635. [B]Elliott Wave Outlook:[/B] The decline from .98 is in 3 waves (corrective). Small 1st and 2nd waves appear complete at .8724. The advance should accelerate in wave 3. Below .8724 alters the bullish structure.
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[B]
EURO / CANADIAN DOLLAR[/B]
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[B]Classical Outlook:[/B] The broader structure remains constructive and the cross now looks to be attempting to put in a fresh higher low at 1.5645, ultimately confirmed on a break back above the 2009 highs at 1.7515. In the interim, next key topside resistance comes in by 1.6380 (internal multi-week range high), but we expect this level to easily be taken out. Only back below 1.5645 gives reason for concern and negates bullish outlook. [B]Elliott Wave Outlook:[/B] Decline from 1.7522 is in 3 waves and that high should be exceeded. Only below 1.5761 alters the bullish structure.
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[B]
AUSTRALIAN / NEW ZEALAND DOLLARS[/B]
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[B]Classical Outlook:[/B] After failing just shy of the 1.2970 2008 multi-year trend highs, the cross has been in sharp retreat mode to close all the way back by weekly opening levels. This sets up a bearish gravestone doji formation and opens the door to more significant declines over the coming weeks. Look for a break below 1.2685 to confirm and expose an initial retest by 1.2415-1.2500. Inability to break below 1.2685 negates. [B]Elliott Wave Outlook:[/B] 5 waves up from 1.1632 indicate high probability of at least a correction, potentially back to 1.1632. Dropping below the support line triggers the bear.
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