In his weekly update of the the Speculative Sentiment Index (SSI) posted today on DailyFX.com, quantitative strategist David Rodriguez had this to say: "An aggressive shift towards crowd buying leaves us firmly in favor of continued US Dollar weakness—particularly versus the Euro, Sterling, and New Zealand Dollar.
"The ratio of long to short positions in the GBP/USD stands at -1.44 as 41% of traders are long. Yesterday the ratio was 1.07; 52% of open positions were long. Long positions are 2.4% lower than yesterday and 45.4% below levels seen last week. Short positions are 49.8% higher than yesterday and 138.7% above levels seen last week.
“We use our SSI as a contrarian indicator to price action, and the fact that the majority of traders are short gives signal that the GBPUSD may continue higher. The trading crowd has flipped from net-long to net-short from yesterday and last week. The combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives a further bullish trading bias.”
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Below are highlights from DailyFX strategist Ilya Spivak’s Cross-Market Technical Update:
[B]GOLD (XAU/USD) TECHNICAL ANALYSIS[/B] - Prices may be carving out a bearish Head and Shoulders top chart pattern.
Confirmation is required on a daily close below 1185.23, the 23.6% Fibonacci expansion, with the first downside target thereafter coming in the 38.2% level (1161.16). Near-term resistance is at 1224.15, the April 6 high.
[B]S&P 500 (SPX500) TECHNICAL ANALYSIS[/B] – Prices continue to hover below resistance in the 2111.00-19.40 area (23.6% Fibonacci expansion, February 25 high).
A break above that on a daily closing basis exposing the 38.2% level at 2154.90. Alternatively, a reversal below the 14.6% Fib at 2084.00 targets the March 12 low at 2040.10.
In this video, DailyFX currency analyst David Song explains why he’s targeting 120.55 for USD/JPY.
Greek negotiations with the Euro Working Group (EWG) and the International Monetary Fund remain a key risk to markets as a Greek default would likely force substantial market volatility and force it out of the Euro Zone. But what are truly key deadlines for the at-risk Hellenic government and broader markets?
Quantitative strategist David Rodriguez highlights some of the critical dates to watch in the weeks and months ahead.
[ul]
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[/li][li]Great risk surrounds Greek repayment of debt, potentially leading to exit of Euro Zone
[/li][li]Critical dates ahead lead volatility prices/expectations significantly higher
[/li][li]Important to monitor Euro volatility risk and adjust positions accordingly
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What’s the most important date on the calendar? David Rodriguez discusses this in his article on DailyFX.com
The Commitments of Traders (COT) Index is the difference between net speculative positioning and net commercial positioning measured. The latest data show that small non-commercial traders have flipped to being net long crude oil.
Non-commercials tend to be on the wrong side at the turn, and commercials the correct side. Use of the index is covered in more detail by senior technical strategist Jamie Saettele in his article on DailyFX.com.
DailyFX currency strategist Michael Boutros tweeted this chart of the Dow Jones-FXCM Dollar Index (ticker: USDOLLAR) which has posted its 5th consecutive day of declines:
He is “looking at 10,809/15” as a target for the USDOLLAR. To get his latest trading ideas and charts, you can follow Michael Boutros on Twitter.
In today’s strategy video, DailyFX chief currency strategist John Kicklighter looks at the difference between ‘black-and-white’ developments and those that are more appropriately termed ‘shades of grey’ with reference to today’s US GDP release and the FOMC rate decision.
Talking Points:
• Event risk can offer a clear surprise and impact on the market or it can blur the market’s view
• Wednesday, US GDP signaled a distinct view for the masses while the FOMC further stirred debate on hikes
• Both technicals and fundamentals can drive market moves or destabilize them
Hi, is there a way for me to have this analysis sent straight to my email? 
Yes Dwaynnyt, you can sign up for John Kicklighter’s email distribution list here: bit.ly/EmailJohn
Quantitative strategist David Rodriguez had this to say in his weekly report on the Speculative Sentiment Index (SSI)":
“Aggressively one-sided retail forex sentiment points to US Dollar weakness.”
“Until we see an important shift, we will remain in favor of buying Euro versus USD.”
You can see his full analysis in individual currency sections of his report on DailyFX.com.
The past two days have seen EUR/USD reach the highest levels on our Real Volume indicator (8+ billion per day) since February 2012.
The new Direction Real Volume indicator shows that buying volume exceeded selling volume on the platform today.
Talking Points:
• According to swaps, the market is pricing in a 75 percent probability of an RBA 25bp rate cut Tuesday
• The same level of confidence for a rate cut was priced in for February’s move, but the reaction surprised
• Given the market expectations, the more surprising and likely impactful move would come with no change
Talking Points:
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[li]EURUSD trades down to former resistance turned support, daily 8-EMA.
[/li][li]USDJPY breakout gathers pace - easiest path forward for USD.
[/li][li]See the DailyFX Economic Calendar for Tuesday, May 5, 2015.
[/li][/ul]
In his chart of the day, forex trading instructor Walker England looks at the Dow Jones-FXCM Dollar Index (ticker: USDOLLAR)
[B]USDollar 30Minute Chart[/B]
Complete analysis on DailyFX.com
In today’s weekly update of the Speculate Sentiment Index (SSI), quantitative strategist David Rodriguez had this to say:
"One-sided forex trading crowd sentiment continues to point to US Dollar weakness versus the Euro.
“Until this changes we like buying EUR/USD dips.”
DailyFX trading instructor Tyler Yell said in today’s trading lesson that "FXCM Trading Volume on the EUR/JPY has seen an abrupt turn as price broke through resistance after a series of lower highs and lower lows. With SSI showing a greater than 2:1 ratio of short-interest, sentiment traders are favoring upside.
[B]EUR/JPY Turns Focus On Prior Resistance to Validate Upside[/B]
"Over the last month, the three largest volume days or associated on up days from the 126.08 low recorded on April 14, 2015. The price action and volume picture helps to paint a picture of just how bullish the EUR/JPY may be coming.
[B]EUR/JPY SSI Hits 12-Month Lows[/B]
“The inverse relationship that SSI has with price might point us towards a higher EURJPY. 68% of retail traders are short. An SSI value of -2.08 is the lowest SSI value we have seen since the December 2014 high.”
[I]Talking Points[/I]
[ul]
[li]NZDJPY Critical 180pip range in focus
[/li][li]89.50 key targeted resistance / bearish invalidation
[/li][li]Event risk on tap this week
[/li][/ul]
Below are highlights from David Rodriguez’s weekly report on the Speculative Sentiment Index (SSI).
“Aggressively one-sided retail forex positioning points to US Dollar losses.”
“We like buying into Euro and British Pound dips, selling USDJPY rallies.”
See full analysis in the individual currency sections on DailyFX.com
In his weekly strategy outlook, DailyFX quantitative strategist David Rodriguez says “the US Dollar stands to lose further versus the Euro, British Pound, and Australian Dollar”.
[B]GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS[/B] – Prices paused to digest gains after touching the highest level in three months.
A break above the 76.4% Fibonacci expansion at 1231.71 exposes the 100% level at 1250.96. Alternatively, a turn below the 61.8% Fib at 1219.80 targets the 50% expansion at 1210.18.
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[B]S&P 500 TECHNICAL ANALYSIS[/B] – Prices broke above range resistance, setting a new record high.
From here, a daily close above the 50% Fibonacci expansion at 2140.70 exposes the 61.8% level at 2159.30. Alternatively, a move back below the 38.2% Fib at 2122.10 targets the 23.6% expansion at 2099.10.
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Source: The DailyFX Cross-Market Technical Update by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist
