Retail FX traders continue buying aggressively into Australian Dollar weakness, and a contrarian view of crowd sentiment leaves us in favor of selling into AUD declines. The majority of traders last turned net-long the AUD as it traded below $0.80 in May.
[B]Weekly Summary of Forex Trader Sentiment and Changes in Positioning[/B]
Until we see a marked swing in the opposite direction we see little reason to change our long-standing bearish trading bias, and indeed any rallies are likely to be capped by significant volume-based resistance at $0.7400.
[B]Total Buy Volume Executed, Total Sell Volume Executed, Net Volume Executed (Buy-Sell)[/B]
Length of bar indicates the sum of Buy and Sell volume.
Data source: Directional Real Volume
The Australian Dollar briefly broke to fresh lows versus the US Dollar before bouncing sharply, and the AUD/USD now trades at major volume-based resistance levels near $0.7400. Failure to close above would nonetheless leave focus on recent lows near $0.7250. A break above $0.7400 would instead target the bottom of a major volume-based congestion range near $0.7600.