I’m in perhaps an unique position in that i live and do business in the only tiny space in the world that uses GBP and yet is somehow linked into the EU - part of the settlement of the UK leaving the EU recognizes a tiny part of the UK - i.e N. Ireland must continue to have a special relationship with the EU.
Therefore falling into two camps maybe gives me an insight into what may happen up ahead - no charts - just FA applicable to the UK as it happens - oh -BTW absolutely no politics.
The primary focus post-covid for the UK is employment - the economy is service biased, not like in the old days of ‘Made in Britain’.
So expect more job losses up ahead - especially in retail - iconic UK companies like M&S.
The key when looking to the right side is who is in charge, what decisions are being made, will these choices bring wealth or are just plain silly.
During the pandemic the UK govt decided that if a business had to close then the govt would pay that business 80% of their employees wage - provided that the business didn’t pay them off.
Then more recently they decided to offer employers £1000 for each employee who returned to work post the 80% scheme.
Many businesses have scorned this, an employee returning is worth much more that £1000 -
but there is a feel in this - almost thought up on the back of an envelope - doesn’t inspire confidence - so watch the employment numbers up ahead.
Did you ever get sucked into that phenomenon called Dead Cat Bounce? That is what has happened to all those firms who were asked to furlough their staff. Until a year ago I didn’t know what a furlough was, but with reference to contractors working for intermediary agency companies, I had always interpreted it as one of those one-side rules that meant the customer can change their mind as often as their shirt, but the contractor needs to give a period of notice normally exceeding that which exceeds the lead time for the new contract offer. Now it’s like "hey, the loyal staff are not being fed the same shot as contractors. Oh hell, now they lost their jobs too. Looks serious, better ditch all the Fiat and stock up on gold - and maybe some Crypto whilst we are at it. That six trillion dollar print job has got to be noticed some time in the future, and so has the £??? billion print job too. Sorry for the ???. I’ve lost track of whether it’s 3, 6 or 9, but at that level, does it matter?
ONLY Buy Sovereign rings, Old Hallmarked silver cups or teh like - KEEP Well away from “paper Gold” - That’s a sh*tstorm waiting to happen !
[Keep an eye open for my “Arithmetic” (Simple Math) thread - when it pops up - 
]
Yes mate - yu will note that the “loyal staff” are the only ones mentioned above !
As 25 year “mercenary” (financio - legal - Construction industry) - I’ve had mre “DCMs” than most ! -
I have had several experiences of being removed from “contracts” - because I was “making waves”
[for the 16 -24 year olds - that means "you’re embarrassing the incompetents - who are ‘staff’ - with their Gold - Plated Pension Schemes " ! ]
They of course have no fear of redundancy or losing their “jobs” - in the current or any other circumstance.
Yet all you hear is "it’s all about ‘employment’ "
Agreed. Bullionvault way to go
BOE economist speaking today had two main themes - first that the UK economy has ‘clawed’ back about half the loss of covid - he asserts that this is the ‘V’ that he had anticipated.
The sting in the tail is his comments on employment - he re-iterates his fear of 1980’s style unemployment - he sees an increased risk of employers not re-hiring after next month.
These two themes are contradictory - rising unemployment will directly affect retail spending which in turn affects growth.
Haldane voted against increasing QE and figures that more Govt borrowing will not help.
As if to confirm the contradictory nature of the thinking of the BOE official Reuters conducted a poll of 38 respondents - similar contradiction - a ‘V’ of sorts:
Your insights can be of much help. I for one am confused with the effect of BREXIT on EURGBP pair.