GBP/CHF Could Reverse in the Near-Term

[B]My picks:[/B] Sell GBP/CHF to target 1.6750, stop above 1.7500
[B]Expertise:[/B] Fundamentals combined with technicals
[B]Average Time Frame of Trades:[/B] 1 day - 1 week

GBP has come under major pressure following news that S&P downgraded the UK’s credit rating outlook to negative from stable, though they did affirm their current long-term rating of AAA. Looking at GBP/CHF, the pair has encountered heavy resistance at 1.73/74, where we have the 38.2% fib of 2.0831-1.5124 and 61.8% fib of 1.8725-1.5124, as well as a falling trendline connecting the November 2007, August 2008, and September 2008 highs. Given the worsening economic outlook for the UK as well as the technical picture, I think it may be worthwhile to sell GBP/CHF with a stop above 1.7500 (psychological point). I’m looking toward the April 7, April 24, and May 11 lows near 1.6650 as a possible target, where we also see the 100 SMA.