Elija normally gives us updates on Sunday before opening with his broker that gives weekend quotes.
None today.
Donāt worry about waiting too long for the weekly chart to show a bottom. The way she is dropping that should only be a few hours to a few days after the open.:eek::D:p
How about someone figuring out a spreadsheet where you can enter in leverage, balance, lowest point you think the guppy will go, lot size, number of positionsā¦and start point (LL). It seems that would be doableā¦then you could say āI think it will go no lower than xxx.xxx and I will be able to place xx number of xx lot trades with xxx balance before crapping out.ā
I know basically the existing spreadsheet can do thisā¦but is it possible to make one that you could just enter these variables, any number of them to get any other number. Say, you could enter lowest point, number of lots, balance, entry point in order to return the hidden variable ānumber of positionsā ā¦or enter number of positions, start point, lot size, balance, in order to get lowest safe price of guppy. Of course leverage would have to be figured in and a āsafety zoneā for how close to a call you would want to get, etc. etc.
Last I looked she was going upā¦did I miss something?
Sounds like another project for me to tackle. Instead of a spread sheet, I could make a web application and do the server side calculations in php.
No you didnāt miss anything. I was just being a horseās rear.
Iām thinking on the first major dip of uj on the M2P 15m and I am going to start playing this strategy with it.
JPY Interest .5% which is high for them and most likely will only go lower.
USD Interest 2.0% which is about as low as we go and can only go higher.
Even if USD gets horrible news back to back to back, I donāt think we can get below 98.
What do you guys think?
OKā¦my job this week is to pick bottom. I think I can get pretty low with my new funding. I do have a hedge but I am going to keep it in if it continues to go down and when it gets positive I will be looking pretty.
My best case scenario is if it drops a lot from hereā¦203, 202, 200, whatever. But I have to be able to pick the bottom (ha ha.)
So any help along those lines would be appreciated.
Also, if she heads up from hereā¦206, 207, I will still need to pick bottom. Will it be 206? 205? 207?
That is my task. Bottom. So any thoughts as we go into the week as to where anyone thinks it has or will bottom out I would like to hear it!! Thanks!!!
OKā¦my job this week is to pick bottom. I think I can get pretty low with my new funding. I do have a hedge but I am going to keep it in if it continues to go down and when it gets positive I will be looking pretty.
Hmm, i would suggest we be going south. Though with the BOJ statement on Tuesday i could be wrong.
Then again there I wont be expecting any good news in relation to the GBP to give it strength to move upwards.
I can see the 201.00 level by friday. I tend to have noticed this guy jumps in 400-500 pip increments up or down.
Just my 2 cents
The Guppy is a girl.
Soā¦this whole strategy is based on the assumption that the guppy will always eventually go up. It has been a long time since Iāve heard the usual āweāll see 220 by monthās endā etc. etc. Is there still any of that speculation on this thread? Iām at a point where I donāt care how long it takes. I think I can deal with a drop to 200 or lowerā¦but I WILL short and get what I can down thereā¦as it is the only way to protect my balance. However, I do not want to let go of my longsā¦even 214. Am I daft? I also plan to buy on the way up, if it is going to go up!!
This is the only pair I trade that I have emblazoned on my mind the ācertaintyā it will go back upā¦I never think other pairs like the pound or euro will reach their highs again any time soonā¦but this whole system expects some sort of eventual return to higher levels (the yen is crap and the GREAT BRITISH POUND STERLING is just that, GREAT.)
We still be bulls boys?
I would suggest you trade the market, and if it dictates to short, than so be it.
For certain it will go back up, the question is how far can it drop before it goes back up? I for one dont think it will go back to the 130 level as in 1995, and even more recently, it hasnt really traded below the 190 level since 2003/4. So that leaves alot of speculation, in April of this year we touched the 192 level, i do not forsee any reason why that could not happen again with the economic downturn in the UK.
I can easily see 197.xx in sight, how soon it will take to get there if it ever does is anyones guess. Theres been 3 bearish candles for the last three weeks and weāve broken the bottom trendline (weekly chart) so i believe shes going to go down further. So im going to be looking to short this girl all the way down. If we get below 200 or around there, i 'm going to try out this strategy down as far as she goes.
But since iām going to trade price action, and if she tells me to go short then iāll be in someways hedging all the way down.
Wait for 98, or the next major dip.
Buy it right the first time & you wonāt have to worry.
Seems pretty simpleā¦short until it hits bottomā¦possibly at 200, possibly at 197 less likely at 192. Then cash in the shorts, and stack it up long all the way back to 214 and beyond. Hmmmmā¦a million bucks in the making. Why am I worried?? 
I personally think rrams strategy is fantastic, it in my opinion just seems that you have to get in at the right price.
Seems pretty simpleā¦short until it hits bottomā¦possibly at 200, possibly at 197 less likely at 192. Then cash in the shorts, and stack it up long all the way back to 214 and beyond. Hmmmmā¦a million bucks in the making. Why am I worried??
Right, trade price action, and than when the situation is right, employ the strategy. Of course if you have oodles of spare money reserves you dont have to do that, but unfortunately i dont, so the idea of adding funds downthe road doesnt appeal to me or my bank book.
Hmm sometimes the more I read, the less I wished I did. It seems that the BOJ on Tuesday could well be negative causing the GBP/JPN to go up, now counter that with GBP retail sales, MPC meeting and GDP this week which I anticipate to be mostly negative as well.
It will be very interesting, shes going to break 1 way or the other, and a big move at that i think.
Yaaaā¦but which way, man, which way??? :eek:
Iām going to ride this puppy short all the way down to 192, cut loose the short with 1300 pips profit and then buy long every 50 pips all the way back up to 220. Yeehaā¦!!
And if she blows to the upside Iāll dump my present shorts and go long long long.
Either way Iām a rich man. Right.
Elijah, where for art thou? And do you see the winds blowing north or south for our fair lady?
I could probably drop another $50,000 into this thing strictly as an investment and just get rid of the shorts and let the longs collect interest. Would that make sense? And just let the sucker sit for however long it takes for it to go back up to profit.
I wonder if I would still be in danger if I re-funded 50k and bought a few lots down lowā¦maybe one at 202, one at 200, one at 197 etc. Hmmmm.
Then I could just put this to bed and open another account to TRADE with. This one would just be for the interest, and a killing way down the road. Any thoughts?
I hope I am not dominating this threadā¦let me know if should shut my mouthā¦I have been babbling quite a bit about the same boring thing. I donāt want to chase anyone away or annoy anyone. Iāll slip into the background when you real traders start yakking about stuff that mattersā¦
That has crossed my mind. I have plenty of margin to trade with right now, itās just all them damn orders cluttering my work station. Is there a way to tuck them things away?
By the way, I just posted my leverage topic in Newbie Island for any to read if needed or wanted.
You may want to read it so you can calculate if throwing the $50k in there is safe.
All my postions added together only give a total overall contract size of around $30K. So if I was to hypothetically go put 30K into my account, I would never face a margin call unless England just up and vanished one day. Close my workstation and check it about once a month just out of curiosity. Then use another account for my speculation trading. If I knew a way to tuck all my investment orders away to unclutter my workstation, then I wouldnāt have to do that.