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2825

I have more than 8000 pips drawdown actually, I am so vague as I am clueless after all these hammers down. I slammed her every time with multilots, click click close close open open not too many orders got jolted, most filled, many got sold for several hundreds of pips profit at 187.00
I really was kidding about 187.

What in the world is on her mind? I guess she sees no point in trying to stay up, if I am running down with her , but this running to south america during my early DINNER wasnt expected so fast and hard.

Like I always said she does like it fast and hard.

2826

over 950 pips in drawdown.
Prepare foul beast! Man when she runs up you better have a full body harness on.

2827

I gotta say this is quite odd…across the board…weirdest market I’ve ever seen. I was shorting the guppy until 197…figured that was it. Ha.

I guess the run up will be spectacular, but the monthly chart says it could go to 174 before really breaking the trend line. But that is REALLY long term…you would think there would be a retracement, a good one, at some point here. That candle on the monthly is very very long…

I’m out though…but want to go long…let me know when that is a good idea, eh? Ha.

2828

[B]“You must do the things you think you cannot do.”[/B]

Eleanor Roosevelt

2829

I thought we would get some nice retrace off 192, but that’s what I get for thinking.:stuck_out_tongue:

2830

:smiley:

Hi Gals and Gyus
I can see the heresy of SHORTING Guppie girl works fine with most of you :smiley: That’s good for your pips.
So to say the rising wedge I’ve mention over a month ago and Andrew put nicely in Fibo levels seem to work well I suppose.:wink:
She is a crazy girl must admit but even a crazy girl is longing for some nice cosy little house so from time to time they can rest there.
Here is raining all the time and the things are a bit gloomy on top of that, 4.4 baseline inflation, the lowest number of registered new cars since 1966 ! (though August never been busy month), house prices just started to meltdown and gathering the proper pace. Overall fundamentally there is some more space for the Cable to go down-that just my view. Maybe some is going to put some technical dams here as she may stop at the South Pole:D

2831

But things are looking up and I survived as a mad scalper. Almost repeated that margin maxxed out syndrome. Im at 11L/9S. And ready to get shorter.

I think we may have hit bottom, I really am clueless at this point, she has been freaking out on me and my orders. Man those suckers are trying to get me :slight_smile: her price is insane her movements are mysterious. She has schooled me all week and all I can say is wow, talk about chaos and conspriacies.

2832

I think we are headiing donw some more here. Asia getting ready to bust open and think she will run down, she already appears to have turned down on the 5M

2833

The cable is at pretty decent support going back to late 05 early 06. U/J daily is at the bottom of an uppward trendline. Our guppy is at pretty nice support going back to 02 and 03.

I would say no more shorting for me, but that has already been proven to be a bad idea last time I stated it almost 400 pips ago.

I will not short anymore for now, but who knows. I’m just collecting my interest and slowly loaning the market more & more capital.

2834

Oh yeah, I almost forgot. Daily RSI is around 5 or 6.:eek:

It’s hard to read that small, but it’s somewhere around there.

Has it ever been that low on one run?

Our minor support at 191-192 ish was ate through with no problem.

2835

Good analysis but my bias is still bearish until 178.

2836

Hard to believe this comment was 750 pips ago and it’s only been a few short days. 6 weeks and a drop of almost 3000 pips.

I quoted the above to key in on one thing: rising wedges (192.64 on 03/17 to 215.89 on 07/22) retrace their advance and then [I]continue[/I] the prior trend - which is downward from last year’s high @ 252.

Noteworthy as it is that 192.64 was breached, it’s actually the function of the pattern. It made good sense to be very wary of a bounce there because it was the year low and low of (the first leg of) the downtrend that began last year; but again, that was only the initial target, not likely to be the terminus of the decline according to the pattern.

Here’s something I posted about a month ago:

[I]Fair value v. perceived value: what is the fair value of USD v. the EUR, the GBP, the YEN, the CAD, etc.? Disagreement over this point makes the market in which we trade. What better resource to gauge perceived value than the market itself? But, traders - for various reasons - are often deluded, insisting on asserting their own perception of fair value vis-a-vis naked market behavior. This is often where bottom (or top) picking comes into play. Expressions put forth by any trader such as “It surely can’t go down any further than this” and such practices as buying at support with a very liberal or no stop loss because you’re “all but certain” price will bounce are examples of the delusional superimposition of opinion onto the wider market as objective fact.[/I]

What’s the intrinsic value of the GBP vis-a-vis JPY? 1:192? 1:252? 1:170? Do any of us have any clue? No. We can’t answer that for any currency pair because we don’t have a comprehensive grasp of the fundamental picture and the intuitive/computational faculties capable of figuring the answer. As Origen famously said once upon a time, “God knows”. In fact, it is our collective inability to answer this question that creates a market (any market) in the first place.

2837

Don’t worry guys, only 18,700 more pips until we can all accurately call a bottom.:stuck_out_tongue:

2838

It took ~one year for the pound to lose ~25% value compared to yen.

2839

Andrew…I hope you make a lot of money, because you REALLY know this stuff…

:smiley:

2840

You are making a big assumption that the NAP doesn’t go the same way of the Reichsmark then you might have to pay people to take it away from your driveway, hence its value will become negative :wink:

2841

From what I’ve read, you typically do all right yourself. :wink: Experimentation with new and relatively untested methods can cause some rough going for just about anybody. Whatever your edge was/is, find it, hold on to it and take advantage of it over and over again.

How do/did you trade away from rrram’s strategy?

2842

what was i thinking…short was so obvious!!!

How/why/what made price crash [B]250pips[/B] in 15minutes at 2100GMT.

back to drawing board for me…
all i have left is one short @ 186.30 (currently -140pips) can you believe it…sold it and sold out right at the bottom!!!..for now…:):eek:

2843

Nor this morning or in Frankfurt/London.

I am thinking this is very viable, AT least this time around half of the drawdown is ON profits from shorts! So if and when she rockets back up and trust me she will, you dont have to look at some old charts to see that.

I am sorry I have been dragged over to the short (dark) side.
I can tell you as a result of this week I have never banked so many pips in such a short time. Every time I looked at her she was shooting south
often hundred pips at a time.

She seems to be running down now. And as much as I would like to see her go up I am 12L/8S ATM, I think she is going to keep running down and filling my short orders sitting at the border.

Then of course we know she can not go further south than the south pole,
but has anyone ever been there? I here it is way way way south, further south than you can imagine. It would represent 0 and we all know despite the yen hey day going on cable cannot go to 0. As long as rates hold thru the year, it will be hard for the yen to gain too too much on the cable.
The yen is NOT a safe haven currency whoever is running around saying that is insane. You dont put your money in an investment at .5% interest.

It has been a wild week at the market, and all sorts of veterans are getting killed. MY dad even took some beatings. Yes I took a beating on Sunday/monday but only for 5000 pips = $500. I say only becasue I made those 5000 pips and more back, now I just have the drawdown issue which will hurt me some on rollover as I have shorts but it is only a couple bucks I guess I can spare that and go back to what I do best scalp guppy.

I dont care what anyone says or thinks (negatively) about my guppy trading.
But I have even come a long way since she got me for (i am trying to forget)
tens of thousands on march 17th, that was ahuge blow out and she was only at 192.60 ish. We are another 500+ pips down from that.

I consdier to be a guppy expert now after 3 short years of being obsessed with her. She is running down now I have to go I am out of balanmce and may need to add more shorts.

I am not going to tell everyone like I normally do what I expect and normally get on NFP, lets have some input from the masses on their NFP thoughts.

7:30am USD Non-Farm Employment Change -73K -51K
7:30am USD Unemployment Rate 5.7% 5.7%

Ok I will tell you, but I cant tell you how I always know in advance :slight_smile:
NFP is going to be about the same as previous forget that expecting -73k it is likely to be more like the previous -50kish. unemployment really isnt as critical previous 5.7 expected 5.7, not expecting much deviation here.
Deviation is expected in NFP, no way it will be that bad, it will come in close to -50K which should cause GU and UJ to go the right direction for the dollar bulls. Expect another kick up for the USD after this morning. I suspect GU will fall further and UJ will kick back up.

its Friday I am looking forward to the weekend! NExt week I will be back up in Prince Frederick MD for service.

2844

at 187.50 that is a nice price to get short. I think GBP is going to fall further after NFP which should carry GJ down further. My Tp’s are set to 180.00.
I too am leaning to the short now 11L/12S. It will be a wild day and I am ready no matter which way she runs, but it is more likely that USD gets stronger after the news and GBP gets weaker. And Yen is sailing high obviously and it may be some time before the yen crumbles