[QUOTE=rrram2;77084]It sure looks like this is the place to load up on some shorts
as she is getting ready for a fall is what my 4H chart is telling me.
This is LT for me the 4H I dont care about any daily, weekly monthly
sorry ART and AL.
[/QUOTE}
Triple R: I was extremely pleased to read of your success this week.
Keep your profits coming!
I was plus for the week ( haven’t done the math yet). No losers and that is what I’ve been happy about.
This is why I keep harping on the “brilliance” theme. You can make money BOTH ways. I utilize D W M charts. You don’t. ATM: I;m selling and y’all be buying. Both are winners. Where else can you find this paradigm?
Your system differs from mine. Yet, you make pips and I make pips.
Keep up the good work.
Ain’t arguing with you, just want some insight as to your thinking.
I saw a possible spike up to a 4H 61% fib ( but haven’t been able to study it for $ levels).Based on fundamonal, I am still watching the Nov close wrt 150.
D chart: RR’s (possible retrace?) MacD < H2O but X up signal (retrace?)
STO 40 down; 8 Xing up > signal (possible retrace?).
139 has been strong support. 144.80 was previous support/resistance line.
4H: $ @ 50% fib ( 62% approx 144) ties in with above (prev S/R)
newest valid TL is up. STO 8 is @ its signal.
Lot of possible retrace signals.
Looks like Triple R’s longs will bring him more pips for his account. I’m chickens**t and shall watch and wait for the sell rally signal. Also, will be interesting to see Cdawg’s 146/148 strategy.
On the BIG picture, I’m anticipating the Nov close and the 150 level ( lots of megabuck boys will be squaring off their year ends).
Then, there is still the interest rate issue re: the central banks.
Art; when you have a moment when you aren’t hanging with the Royals, could you drop me a line and tell me what you and HRH see for the near future?
Hi Guys… This is one of the best thread I have seen about this sort of trading system. I have been reading for three or more hours. I am so new to this FX trading .
My question to rrrm2 (The one who started all this) Copul you be so kind and summrize your system to a new guy?, who got lost reading all the old posts.
Looking at the GBP/JPY chart I think it going down before it go up. should I short at 142.69, 142.59, 142.49, 142.39 all the way to 140 and go long 140.1, 140.2, 140.3, 140.4 … and so on. OR I AM GETTING THE WHOLE THING WRONG. Please Help! anyone: confused:
I cannot trade yet until 5PM I think so another 35 minutes but since she is gap up they filled my pending order from friday to get another one short at 143.00 that one should make an easy 100 pips, But I think she will fall further so I set the TP on the short on Friday at 141.00 so I expect 200 pips out of that one.
Gap up is 100 pips so far and I am thinking TP at 141.00 for 200 pips, I set this one Friday going into the close.
Don’t let her scare you going into the weekend!
Most guppy trades peter out and SQR Friday before close as Guppy could take your money on Friday and head to one of the poles (south or North)
not to be herd from until she has spent all your monies.
Ain’t arguing with you, just want some insight as to your thinking.
There is massive bullish div on the 12 hr charts.
Notice the spike down to 137.75 and the volume … the volume was VERY LOW this was what is a called a market test. Lets see how many bears we can see are still willing to sell.
Well the pros did not bite . They are not going to sell at this level if they want to sell … only us dumb retail traders will try selling at that level. This is called a bear trap.
Pick your fib for the retracement. At this point if 145.5 breaks we are breaking the down trend line and the 33 sma that has been forming resistance since 200 !!! That is major.
I think we may see a market top just before Thanksgiving based on the fib time expansionS and interestingly there is another one ond Dec 2nd , just after the automakers bail out meeeting in the senate
I believe at the moment that this is going to be 151.28 / 154.50
The charts have much more bullish feeling to them than a bearish feeling at this time … TAKE THAT TO THE BANK . I am building swing trade long positions on the dips down at the moment and 138 was a sweet place to load up . I am right there with the smart money
I believe 137.7 was the start of a week long bull cycle
If the pros really want to sell this market and take it sub 139 . They want it to be higher … much higher to get the pair at value. Hence move to 151/154 and then next down cycle could have enough power to take it down
this is where a traders knowledge of the markets comes into play … no indicators involved in this analysis , other than a few fibs and fore thought of market conditions and an understanding of the how the big players work in the market
I am getting playing both sides now not just going long.
But I dont want to be caught with too many shorts.
In the current scope of things I would get one long or short at the current levels, then scale down at least 50 pips and maybe even 100 pips
(I am doing 100), I am going down 100 pips per order now, then perhaps after 500 pips down or UP I may tighten them up.
I am playing with one scalping all the time either up AND/OR down
Often in the current guppy situation I find myself hedging, being long and short. You need to be able to live through a 2000 pip move so you cannot be too close together.
m2p is right about the 500 pip channel. Ideally you want to get long at the bottom of the channel and short at the top of the channel, so if you miss the channel even by 500 pips and are only scaling down or up 100 pips for each order either long or short, then if you miss the channel by 500 pips you arent in too deep. I don’t use SL’s because I dont like to give my monies to guppy.
Trouble with guppy these days is she is like a juggnaut, and can go 700-1000 pips a day some days. I am watching WIlliams %R pretty close and prefer a 5 bar period on the 15M chart, or even 5bar on the 4H. Mostly I am just staying on the 15M chart, but I am using candles and watching the chart 100% of the time I am here wwhile the market is open.
It is getting to be a long thread I owuldnt go too far back,
because in the beggining I was only going long. And that was way back in the 200’s. So I would be down like 4000 pips now.
So for now I guess I am scalping and playing conservatively even if I miss the topor bottom (which normally I am not too far off), for at least the first 500 pips, that way once she is down or up 500 pips I IONLY have ONE LOT per 100 pips of price movement.
as an example and these are my current orders I am holding,
I am long at 145.99 144.81 143.79
and I am short at 143.00 142.00 and 141.80
I have anywhere from 100 pip TP’s already pending attached to each order
either long or short, so if any of my orders hit their TP and I am asleep at the wheel they will close. I am not using SL’s as they would have to be way too fat anyways. HEck given the current range of guppy I would need like a 1000 pips SL order so what is the point. I would trade with a micro account first and get the feel for her. Don’t trade with any money you NEED and CANNOT afford to lose, but if you have fauth and patience and dont call her names (this will make her attack you and go the opposite direction of what you need her too.
Study the charts, watch the candles, study candlestick patterns, Watch her
long enough and she wll talk to you, and ALWAYS watch the CHARTS, you will learn all sorts of things if you keep watching. YOu will learn how she acts.
She often acts the same way at certain times of the day and on cedrtain days, watch the big news as this sways her in the moment, even if later she does whatever she wants.
And know Guppy is just UJ X GU
sometimes she seems to follow UJ and sometimes GU, I find she is most influenced and more closely follows UJ, watch for divergences. If UJ is heading up steeply and guppy is not, it is a safe bet guppy will follow unless GU is crashing HARD.
Guppy is the wildest pair to trade with one of the biggest ranges,
she can and will make you rich or poor.
Money managemwent is extremely important, trading guppy requires a complete understanding of smart margin management!
Thanks for your input. We, little people (speaking personally) need as much information that we can get, in order to make our decisions.
I trade one way and utilize certain indicators; you trade with other indicators, and TripleR, M2P, Art and others use other means.
A sharing of information will aid all of us.
On one of my last posts, I mentioned possible retracement.
Today, reviewing the D, I noted 4 down TLs (newest to longer):
in my limited experience, I shall look @ resistance levels of 144.80;147.80;150;152.
139 is a strong support ( bull trap forming?)
W candle was spin top ( reversal?) however, MacD is down with good angle and separation!
The M candle is below the lower BB.
On the futures charts: the W GBP is down (but an I/B) watch for break >hi or < lo for direction. The Y W TF is up and RSI >60.
We are 1/2 thru Q4 the hordamentals are all saying RECESSION.I shall be patient and sell the rallies in the downtrend.
Again, I thank you for your intelligent rationale to this thread, cdawg.
I feel that this is how all can benefit. ( Heck, look at Triple R; EVEN HIMSELF sold the guppy occasionally:D).
But guppy is going to make another run down near 139 before she goes to far above 146. I am adding shorts at 144 145 146 146.50 and 147.80.
I doubt my orders at 146.50 and 147.80 get filled before she retreats south.
on the long side I will add more longs lower 140.20 then down every 100 pips into 135.00 I will add more longs for the ride up.
It isnt going to be this year I dont think that she can break into 150’s.
and after Nov 27 Thanksgiving here is Black Friday, and I can tell you no matter howlow thoe retailers go, retail sales aRE going to be very disappointing, Friday Expect light volumne and whippy trading and come Sunday/Monday guppy will be heading south. LAst year things were no better
really, but this year will be the worst year for retail sales in a very long time.
I love guppy in this range as I can buy her all the way down into 135.00
she may even see 129’s before the ressurection. I will hold my longs until they are good. Forex.com’s mt4 is treating me very WELL on the swap, unlike FXSOL who rips you on the swap, forex.com only got me for 14.56 on the negative swap and like 10.70 on the +swap on a standard lot, swap may be worse on the mini’s.
When I finally fund my account after getting my live account switched to the mt4 platform, I wont have the money to trade standard lots, so I will have to see what the swap is for the mini’s.
I can assure you I am not done making pips on the shorts, and when the longs start hitting I will try to hold the low longs and add to my longs as she goes up, but I dont like that. No matter how hard I try I cannot seem to be pateint enough. I want to be a swing trader when I grow up, but for now I am just a scalper :o
And lucky for me I am scalper her both ways now.
Pip profit target for this week is a wishful 5000 pips which may be easy with the holiday and Black Friday as it will be a banner week for me as the range will be crazy and whippy and I continue to trade without and SL’s
SL’s are for losers and newbies. Of course if guppy breaks 150 hard I may need to sqr those shorts, but I am up 2850 pips from last week.
There is no way guppy is even going to peek above 150 this week I dont think.
In fact as I said before I dont think she will see 150 this year as retail sales are in a slump and no matter how cheap crap is, americans just dont haave the money to blow for XMAS.
I closed the other short from 142.00 for a few pips. Only holding one short now, because she could be heading back up a little bit here, then I will get short higher.
Closed all shorts now for pips of profit, I should have been more patient but i am happy with 100 pips for sunday night.
Now looks like it may be the time to pick up a long if you havent.
I have one already at 142.05 and am going to get another long
@ 140.20 that way I am spacing down 185 pips on the next one,
I would probably like to get one more in between those like at around 100 pips down, but considering I think she is not at the bottom of the channel yet, I am going to hold off on the long until she hits 140.20,
as I am going to go watch some TV.
On the 15M she looks to be heading up for a few pips but the 4H is screaming down down down and the LT trend is still down.
that one should make an easy 100 pips, But I think she will fall further so I set the TP on the short on Friday at 141.00 so I expect 200 pips out of that one.