It looks like one is forming on the 1hr chart. What do you guys think?
When this pattern breaks the neckline, will it retest it as support before taking off upwards?
i think she is all geared up. LOAD UP.
first target 125.3 and if she can crash through there hold on for 127.5
shes coming back!
make sure your onboard for frankfurt and london…she has held her ground in asia and even made some
ALL ABOARD TOOT TOOT
Hmm, I will play a breakout of the daily candle on the guppy. If it breaks I will long it. If today guppy fails to break yesterday candle, we will have an IB setup too. 
is the hat being served up for starters at margin call headquartes this weekend
Trav that was before the bad news in UK about the RBS!
The dog already ate part of my hat!
Take a look at this:
Is it time to short the USD yet against * except the AUSSIE of course?
Or did someone just discover the largest gold mine in the world in the USA?
I smell a BIG FAT RAT!
comes from the st louis FED!
Triple R: my limited education and thus, my logic thought processes make me scratch my head wrt the usd strength. Today’s blog (Jack the Pipper),was helpful. So, I just follow the flock (shown by the T an A). Dollar Index going up. Anyhow, I don’t trade any US X’s only Yen pairs. Just keep buying your hard gold/silver assets ( not paper) and when big bubble bursts, you will have the last laugh!
'pears to me that the BOJ decision ( that kept me out of the fx) was toothless hype. Next time, I’m just following my TanA with closer stops.
Y futures still up with the comms increasing their short contracts.
G futures still down and comms are increasing their long positions. I think the guppy has more “titanic” time.
The close this week < 125; the M indicators still showing down and risk aversion still keep me bearish. On the D, the indicators look up.
I am looking @ prev support 128.70/118.85 lows as a range band.
Ray1 had a good suggestion wrt longs> prev D hi (but I am fearful of fowl feces and shall wait for a break of either point).Art’s ichimoku and HA all flavour down.
Trav: with all due respect, don’t pull your TOOT chain too much 
Guppy might do a Clinton’s aide thing on ya!
I realize that you are south of the equator and you may be viewing the charts upside down:D
I watch the 3&5 D ema’s for direction.
several so called “gurus” are out there saying they remain bullish on the USD for the rest of the year, some even have some valid points or reasons to support thier beliefs.
But if you looked at the st louis fed research, the link is a few posts up.
How can you be bullish USD?
GET this if you cannot understand the graph! Monetary base has increased
100% in the last 6 months, basically they have doubled the money supply
but their assets have remained the same! This means that if you had $1000 in the bank 6 months ago it is now worth HALF as much as it WAS worth. So in 6 months the dollar has LOST half of its value, I dont care what the USD index is doing.
Does anyone remember Lehman Bros? They got in a pinch and issued a whole bunch of NEW stock and sold it for the same price as their stock price was. This was a no brainer! Company assets did NOT increase. All they did was severely dilute the value of thier shares. True the price stayed propped up for a shirt bit. But then what happened? HAHAHA! Someone pulled the rug out from under them?
You cannot increase the monetary base by 100% and think you have done anything except cut the value of the USD in half, that is of course considering assets did not increase. Can you say dilution? If I buy a gallon of 100% pure concord grape juice for $10, Drink half of it, and fill the jug up with water so it is only 50% grape juice, then sell it for $10.
Who is the dumbarse here? ME? The seller? Of the buyer? If you need me to answer that please return to infantpips.com you failed!
It may take a bit for the reality to kick in, but YOU CANNOT double the monetary base, keep assets the same and think $1 is still worth $1! DOH!
Eventually everyone is going to figure out they bought diluted grape juice!
well i hope you were able to pull your toot and got on in the low 120’s taking profit in the 125’s as !
TOOT TOOT…what da you reckon 127s this morning/night london open…mmmm lets see…this is when the banks come to play once all those bears have taking profit…They have learnt there lessons from past failures that it is a fact that the BOE or the BOJ cant do nothing to change market sentiment…so they wait for the lulls to drive it back the way they want it to go…otherwise they are throwing funny money after bad money, and the only one making money is everyone except the forex bunnys:eek:
WELL the funny thing about currency pairs is that they well the are PAIRS!. So if you go short against the dollar who are you going long - the pound (now dont be silly) - the yen! (now that would even be siller), - the AUD (well now you wouldnt want to do that… (the SWISSY -well possibly cause i dont look there but my guess is they are just as stuffed as the rest of euro.
The fact is the US was first to crumble and the other currencies spike up towards the end of that bubble…Whilst the market bulls were charging the US was and had already started receeding…they will be the first to to bottom and the first to lead this global recovery…And if they aren’t then god help us.
UK is spiralling and there aint nothing that will fix it, funny money fixes nothing, there recovery is a long long long long long way away…employment is the key and unemployment there out of control…they dont know what to do and they havent even began to act or think on what they can do…they are like stunned mullets and worse is coming. And they are exasperated by the fact that the euro is at there doorstep and those added euro zone country citiezens are free to live in there country.!
And Gordon Brown, what a disater of a leader…the finance minister now prime minister who was the self proclaimed hero who had brought an end to the boom bust cycle HAHAHAH!!!
EURO is a disaster on the verge…it is crumbling,…at the moment it is similar to the US before its back was broken in the second half of last year…also with the addition of these new countries into the zone only adds to the problems…those econmies are disasters.
japan currency has apprecited out of control which is having a negative effect on a economy that has had next to no growth for the past five years. Money is there just cause it is safe - nothing else. Exports which are huge driver of that economy are coming to a scretching halt…noone can afford it now…no not now!
And AUD, a country that has no impact globally and is just tinkering on the edge of the cliff as its mining exports to china begin to dry up and huge job cuts are emerging and there is no finance available to push forward housing and construction…it will bottom last and will be last to recover…
THE US has suffered and is suffering but the economy is working through the cycle and it will be the first to emerge and the first to record increases in growth which will lead to increase in inflation and housing and interest rate rises, which will push the currency higher…the US is ahead of the pack by six to a year or even more… if your not a US dollar bull.,…what are you?
Yeah mate:I look at the tiny TFs and scalp. Glad to read that you picked some pips from 120s to present.
127 possible, since 125 is a psychological level and important to stay above it! My take on the higher TFs (W and M) is that the next 1-3 mos are going to give sharp swings attempting to keep the median >125 (the government and bank interests).
Personally, I enjoy the feedback provided by readers of this thread. There are nuggets of information that have assisted my trading account. I look forward to reading your vitriol as your unique method of imparting information
is as entertaining as it is informative.
I agree somewhat wrt your USD logic.
Where I require your knowledge is my confused read of your currency pairs.
My take was that G was depreciating and Y was appreciating: therefore, if G=5 and Y=1 the G/Y pair would be 5(5/1).
If G=4 and Y=2 the G/Y would be 2(4/2).If G=3 and Y=3 G/Y=1.
If G=2 and Y=3 then G/Y=>66666666. So, the G/Y pair must fall!
But my read is that you are are calling for this pair to rise?
Could ya give a forex-challenged person a simple explanation please? ( I just want to pull my tooter)
Guppy is raising, but is this movement a temporary retracement? Only time will tell us the answer, but the route to north is filled with resistances. Previous week high of 135 region is a strong looking resistance given the beairsh outlook the pair. 129.00 region is also another zone I will be looking at for the guppy.
Twenty-five people at the heart of the meltdown … | Business | The Guardian
Anyone want to buy some lehman bros? Or some diluted grape juice?
Or some diluted USD?
I grabbed some guppy down at 119.50 I dumped guppy all the way up.
I bailed at 126.73 on everything that was in profit. I m rebuying long one lot at 125 124 123 122 and so on down.
next long up is at 128.50 I am at about 50% equity now things are looking good, but I expect another run down in guppy We could hit 150 but LT I still say guppy will make new lows below 119
What an impeccable,concise post. Your chart was so clear (mine are filled with the TanA crappola). Your SandR lines clearly define a range to note.
If you care to defile your chart- on the D, draw a high TL and a low TL (the channel should show you a range in order to possibly trade,). I am watching 132.70/120 in order to trade within.
This range supports Trav’s 129+ posts.
I am at ablout 50% equity and should be able to handle at leAST A 2000 PIP RUN DOWN.
I may start shorting her if she gets high enough but I fear she may want to scream up as high as 150 which would be amazing so I dont want to get caught short, and you know I hate to use Sl’s but a short here would require it for me.
Triple R: great link. Do you mean that Greenspan, Bernake et al,were misrepresenting the facts?
and long EUR/USD
I wont short USD against the GBP
nor would I short USD against AUD
in fact those last two I would be LONG usd/GBP or USD/AUD
I am short USD/ZAR and betting LT on the NOK long against USD EUR and GBP
go Guppy Go
And another 1.5 months. If I continue halving the time between posts at this rate, by late spring I’ll posting multiple times a day again!
Thanks for the kind words. If you wanted to check out the blog, you’ll find it listed under my profile (or type in my username.com as the domain). I post analysis (including some Ichimoku) of and the majority of the trades I take on the GBP/JPY there along with other content on a daily basis, more-or-less.
At this point, I’m no longer as resolutely bearish on GBP/JPY as I was when actively posting here before. The fundamental ground beneath the pair is shifting as the Yen continues to become more valuable. Recently, with terrible Japanese corporate earnings (Toyota, Sony, Namura, etc.) at least partly attributable to the radical appreciation of JPY v. the currencies of its major trading partners (primarily the US) talk of active BoJ intervention if JPY cross deterioration continues has been on the uptick. I’ve been in and out on both sides, but mostly long from 119. My latest GBP/JPY trade was a long on the break of a symmetrical triangle from 125.36.
That said, 129-132 poses a substantial barrier. If the current move is corrective, I have it pegged to stop no higher than 131.56 before moving south again; but anywhere in that range could be a turning point. If not, back to 135.25-75 is possible in the next week or two.
Thanks for the warm welcome back!