Or able to get flat and still be up a boatload of pips for the week.
Iâm flat too 
Where would you recommend starting the next cycle.
WowâŚthat was a great run! I am sorry I wasnât around to really take advantage of it.
I am flatâŚwonderfully so. I donât even know how many pips I made, but it is a lot. This system is great!
On to the next!
BTWâŚmy internet went out last nightâŚand this morningâŚso my cable trade went down after NFP but I wasnât around to deal with itâŚanother trade kicked in and then it went up! So I am now holding TWO trades on the cable, both losers. Should be sticking with only this system!!
FaithfullyâŚTodd
Hi rram and all!
I read through the thread but im still confused about your strategy.
I understand you only go long for the interest but how do you expect GJ to move back up to the origin? As far as i can see on my daily chart this pair has been bearish from at least june 2007.
What timeframe do you trade?
Sorry if it sounds stupid :o
Thanks!
ElijahâŚ
Do you want me to go to FF and gather up the other folks who posted there and invite them to this thread?..I have the time to do that this weekend as I am sitting here on the beach in Santa Barbara CA with nothing to do but watch the girls go byâŚwhich is quite pleasant of course.
I have a few questions for you:
-
I do not know a lot about GJ although I have always loved to watch it swing up and down. I am wondering what its usual response is to dollar weakness or strength. ??
-
When you have one of your loss leaders up high somewhere that hangs around for a long time I know you are making interest etc. but how do you deal with the strain that trade puts on your margin? If the market keeps moving lower and lower and you are playing the cycles and it takes a long time to move back up to your old trade that is sitting somewhere high (like your one at 209) doesnât that impact your margin? If you have a bunch of them up there that never got TPâd wouldnât you eventually have very little margin left to work with?
Let me answer this question myself and you can just say yea or nay to my answerâŚwhile you are building up equity with your present trading, scalping, buying limits etc, the impact that old long has on your margin gets less and less. The idea behind this strategy is to contstantly be building up that equity with small trades to offset any draw down you might be maintaining by old interest building trades that wonât TP. Of course the nay sayers would say that eventually you wonât be able to bring enough buckets of sand to plug up the leak in the dam and it will eventually breakdown on you and flood you out.
It seems that most people are concerned about this ânot getting back to the topââŚI am beginning to see your re-frame of that situationâŚholding for interest and building up equity with each new run of the strategy.
It is sort of a paradigm shift you have to experience to see the brilliance in this. I remember once you said that beginners are best at this before they have been influenced by the conventional wisdom of trading.
Todd
I worked today so I was out most of the day. I did watch NFP run GJ up to over 209. I sold all mine but one. It is -200 pips ATM but was much closer.
I have had this 209.63 a long time if you can look back and see when price was last at 209.63. I had a feeling we werent going to hit 210.
I was still holding out for 209.75, which we will blow through next week.
Contrary to popular belief the dollar is coming back, it isnât going to just die yet, until it is replaced with the amero or SDR.
I thought I was very clear in suggesting yesterday that NFP was going to surprise everyone.
I guess if it goes that low, Iâll have to invest more money in forex
and dig my heels in and spend more time scalping, all the while holding longs higher, see once you have everything covered, whatever way it goes,
down it has to come back up. It has never went down and never came back up.
As for you bears, are some you still short at 204 or something and going to tell me its a bear market. See GJ is the new carry trade, UJ is about 1.5% difference so lots of that money has went into gj. YEs folks are pulling thier money out too. DOllar positive is GJ positive. Stock market goes up GJ goes up, gold goes up GJ goes down. NJ or NU are great interest but gj is it for me.
I dont even trade anything else anymore. The other pairs are boring and disappointing for me. Yeah you can make some money with GU, but the balance between those is flaky and I dont know if I could trade gu without stop losses. Imagine how funny that is consdiering I play gj with no stop losses, Unless I am going short THEN I always have a stop loss order (laugh)
so I can lose money! and I do on all shorts so I gave them up.
As silly as this all may sound. It was part of the process for devising this trading system.
Nice to see people posting besides me, I knew you were reading. Todd, you are welcome to invite whomever from FF (furbelow farms :). Give me the weekend to come up with a plan for sunday (next week). I havenât had a chance to look at the charts or anything. And we closed around 207.50 or something and had a high after NFP of well over 209. Off hand I would be looking to get long at 207.39 207.19 206.99 and see how it goes from there.
I still have one at 209.63 that I will be holding until 209.75 so it doesnât matter where I get in at this point. And depending on the market I will scale in down and get long as cheap as I can, carefully spaced.
Brilliant insight there ElijahâŚit sure did surprise me. I agree with you about the dollar. Itâs time for a comebackâŚand I think it will be pretty intense.
I am looking forward to next week. Iâm short the pound and the euro (my old style of trading 
) and long the loonie and dollar/yen. Weâll see.
I love the GJ for some reason, and I may soon join your sentiment and stick with only that. I like the idea of only trading longâŚseeing GJ as a carry trade keeps the stress down. This pair is like a yo-yoâŚthe troll never goes hungry.
Next week will be fun! And fun is what it is about. I hope no one makes an EA for this system.
Have a good weekend ElijahâŚand rest up.
Welcome to everyone out there reading too.
Todd
I know this is going to be hard to believe. But I expect 207.20 to hold as support if it doesnât hold expect a run down to 204.00, which should hold for the next move up to .382 fib @ 214.96.
I looked at the monthly, weekly, daily, 240, 60, 15, 5, and 2.
And MT by week end I expect to hit and hold 210âs for the next move up to test 214âs before month end.
So with that in mind I am carefully getting long at current levels
watching out for a break below 207.20 which would likely bottom out in the 204âs/205.00. But LT is UP. ST term could go either way.
There may be a run down especially if 207.00 breaks and holds.
1 Like
What on the daily chart leads you to believe the trend is down?
I trade the 2 minute when the market is open, up to the 15 and 60.
LT is UP MT is UP ST is UP but ST may also run down lower if it cant hold current levels.
When I trade yen for pound LT I will always win. Think of it as a savings account that pays mad interest and allows you to scalp
and add those profits to your savings.
Eventually you have to build money up in your account. Even common sense risk/reward management results in consistant winnings if you trade the fundementals and have a win lose ratio of 50/50 but HAVE a SL/TP ratio of 20/50, so even if you are only 50/50 you still should be up 30 pips.
You donât get it apparantly, if you have a cash cow like this that has drawdown that continues on and at times increases, You never really intend on taking that drawn down out. You should really be able to make 10,000 pips a month. And even at $1 a pip even if you are down 10,000 pips unrealized which is ALOT, if you have banked 10,000 pips for that month you are actually even.
NExt month comes you are still down 10,000 pips, you bank ANOTHER 10,000 pips. NOw you are net 10,000 pips up if you close your account and go way south. But why would you?> Let them KEEP the 10,000 pips forever and pay you 30% a month interest. And keep getting them for 10,000 pips a month.
Who cares about the 10,000 pips keeping you in the game? And now the thing goes wild and break to the top and wipes out the whole follish short world and adds those pips to your banked pips. And you get flat.
Well now you are up 30,000 pips. I am not saying get in too deep now because your account is fat. No sense getting foolish because your account is flat.
You now initiate another cycle. GBP will eventually break 251, it is the natural order of the world. It is as natural as the price of oil going up.
This is frankly how p2p works. Eventually you have 25K in there for 60days
which is yielding 40K every 60 days, As long as the 40K comes every 60 days, who cares about the 25K? Its sort of the opposite of drawndown.
But drawndown pays interest.
I often buy a ****load of orders right before swap on wednesday when everyone is weanting to sell for some odd reason. They run it down, I buy it all the way down, then it rebounds and suddenly the sun is shinning in a new way. The money is made in the movement. It costs money to get in (drawdown). You could avoid the drawdown, but I feel without the greater risk there is NOT a greater reward.
In fact in many cases once you become experienced with this you can load up at the bottom and have more than 1 per 10 and hold them longer and TP at 50 60 70 80 90 100 or more. There are all sorts of little tweaks you can do to maximize your profit and reduce your risk.
Or LEave a few open. I did one day and came home to a +144pip minilot
still open. Of course I closed it immediately.
Pips are like tiny seeds, you collect them and value every one and while they seem insignificant, once they start piling up you will have SOMETHING BIG.
Or at least be able to get something BIG. OR give something BIG to someone else. Not in an effort to impress anyone but to be generous. Generosity always is rewarded abundantly.
I am sorry. I have been thru all of the posts in this thread, and I cannot figure out what your GBP/JPY strategy is.
Perhaps I am stupid, I donât know, but I am looking for plain English instuctions. 
Thank you
Anewbie
Glad to have found you again. My thanks to Todd for letting me know. I had a good week with all my orders being filled including my âloss leaderâ so I am flat at the moment. Its good to have you back on line again. Looking forward to another good week.
Grader
WellâŚmaybe I donât get itâŚand Iâll keep working it until I see the light or get busted. My intention is to see the light. I donât expect to get busted. I think it is just a matter of understanding it, not that I think it is suspectâŚjust that I donât fully understand it. I will keep working at thatâŚbut I suppose it isnât entirely necessary to understand.
I am assuming now we are working down from present price. Where is the loss leader set? At current market or at 207.20 support? How far down is it best to start setting the buy limit orders? Maybe I missed a post here and that has already been mentioned. I am still a bit fuzzy on where to actually start. Although I am not sure it really matters at this point.
Hope all had a good weekend. wselyeâŚdid you read from the beginning? Iâm not sure if the strategy has ever been written down as a working strategyâŚonly pieceing together posts from rrram2 to see what he is working with. I think it can be written down rather conciselyâŚI have written it down for myself so I have a clearer understanding of itâŚand I adjust my written plan as rrram2 gives more insight. It is pretty simple actually.
Looking forward to market open.
Todd
I guess you need to take all your money out and run on profits only so you have no risk. Some people have to do this. I am ok keeping my money in and building equity and profits quicker. And once I withdraw profits in excess of funds deposited into my account then I am even. Getting even is the hardest thing you will ever do. Once you get past even, like many of you now should be, the rest is a lot easier. You have to make some changes to some things you hold in your mind, which could be holding you back.
Drawdown is ok unless you LET it wipe you out. YOu are in control of IT.
Itâs like your mortgage (drawdown),If you donât make the payments
(interest, maybe principle, taxes, insurance) they are going to foreclose on you. Mismanage your margin and your broker will sell you out (forclose).
underestimating drawndown is a mistake, but if you are keeping your used margin at 1-3% you are safe from a mad run down especially if you are at 400:1 leverage. If you donât have back up money to put in, in an emergency, then you should be extra careful with you level or margin percentage used.
But if it takes going that far to pierce your mind into thinking that it MAY actually be possible regardless of what your ego is humming in your ear.
It doesnt matter where you get in at this point. .25 (FIB) is at 207.23 of the move up from 192.60. It is for sure a pivot point for me and hard support.
so I got one at 207.60 and buying every 20 pips down from 207.49, 207.29 to 206.99. This is conservative, I doubt we will see 204 but if we do I donât want to have too many too high (TMTH). I expect 207.20 to hold and if not then 206.50 and again 204 is possible as bottom support. BUT from there we will be moving up for sure. Look at the monthly, the weekly, we are at point of certain trend reversal to the upside. The time period doesnât matter. You can make it look any way you want by manipulating the charts. WHen multiple charts over several time frames say the same thing, its a good indication of the upcoming movement. And all we have to base this on is history. The charts are history. And history always has a way of repeating itself. And the more things change the more they stay the same. The future is uncertain, all we have is now.
Now is a good time to get long with one and grab a couple more down to 207.
If it falls hard from there maybe every 25 pips or 30 or 40. Get a few more at bottoms. If it falls more get more. Never forget smart margin management. This is key. Youâve seen quite a few cycles by now
and have to be figuring some things out. Patience is key. Impatience costs you pips. 11-31 pips is ideal but you can take more or less. If I had more margin to manage ATM then I may be getting in deeper & quicker, instead of spacing 20 pips initially and then 25 or 40. I sitill have a 209.63 paying me interest for over a month now.
Iâm in it for the long haul. IN the long haul The demand for the pound will always be greater than the demand for the yen. Even if the SDR now has more yen than pound I think. I cannot ever be convinced otherwise.
I have learned the hard way many times about how quickly the yen can turn weak and fall like a rock because it is just NOT very in demand internationally
as compared to other currencies like the pound where the interest rate is high.
Trade with a demo account for several cycles until you understand and/or master the system.
We only go long GJ because of positive interest. We try to get longs as low as we can. We know that everything must return to its origin and certain price levels are like bridges where price will cross BOTH ways at A minimum
at least once. We will return to 251. We will return to 180 too. GJ price travels in cycles (circles) and channels. SMAâs at 21 55 89 144 268 and other key Fibinocci numbers as well as Fibinocci retracements and/or extensions provide levels of support and resistance besides the obvious psychological numbers of 204 204.50 205.00 and others like .80 .20 .40 .60
but these smaller numbers more rarely come into play with the beast GJ as its average daily range is generally larger than any other pairâŚ
We but long as price moves down so it looks like we are buying into a losing position, We are ATM and have drawndown (unrealized). We hold them until they yierld a profit. We use NO stop loss orders. When we buy long we set a TP target and when it is hit our trade is automatically sold and pips banked.
We get in with one order at market referred to as our âloss leaderâ.
It really doesnât matter where we get this order price wise, but we oBVIOUSLY
if we are going LONG we dont want to buy long at resistance! or at the top of a long bull run up, that has STALLED. From this loss leader we get long every 10 pips down. So loss leader at 207.60. But normally we buy on the 9âs and sell on the 0âs but any number will do. This is more for tracking.
Now depending on market and range and momentum and volumne and all that we analyze some charts and decide we only have so much margin so we are going to go every 20 pips down, or start getting long after a 50 pip move down.
Key with this system is smart margin management where you use 1-3% of your margin. Using any more than this exponentially increases your risk in a large move down. The idea is NOT to get sold out after running out of margin.
This will work but you cannot get too greedy or too impatient. You are always scalping in range for 11 pips or so and always selling longs when they hit TP targets. All orders are set 100% with TP targets and NO STOP LOSSES> So yield is 100% profit on all trades. YOu have to understand the sometimes severe drawdown and master smart margin management.
YOU MUST have a broker that doesnât stick you with FIFO.
monthly interest on margin used to hold trades open is about 30% a month.
Some brokers pay this as interest and some pay it by lowering your averaged trade amount (by lowering your effective price on all your trades at rollover).
So if you hold GJ at say forex.com every day at rollever say you got long at 204.00 today, after 5 when it rolls over you will be long at 203.97 or something, so for one week of rollovers you go down quite a bit and KEEP going down as long as you hold the trade. Eventually the pound will come back. Its LT trend, historic LT trend is UP, LAtely it has been down.
BUT down has turned around recently and I thinkw e have moved quite a bit up from 192.60.
Its pretty simple. If you have any specific questions ask them.
Get a demo account and start trying stuff.
Iâm long again with a new loss leader at 207.75.
I sold my 207.60 for a few pips or something.
I am buying at .59 .49 .29 206.99 and wider spaced down from there.
Iâm in with a loss leader at 207.84. Buy limit in at 207.79. Have pending orders at .69 .59 .49 then spaced out a bit further with wider TPs after that down to 206. Will wait to see what happens to go further. We are seeing the support at 207.20. Will place more orders if it breaks that support and heads to 204.
Thanks rrram2 for your further insights and explanations.
Off to the racesâŚ!! :eek:
I use .268 as well even though it is not perhaps widely accepted
.268 is 208.29 (going to be resistance)
.250 is 207.23 (support)
If it stays in this 100 pip range, we can make a fortune scalping them 11-31 pips a pop. There is no risk if it breaks to the top side (sad if you arent long already). IF it does break down below 207.20 then 206.50 is pretty likely.
No draw down in scalping up but I hate getting in long higher and higher for some reason. Still holding above 208.00. I only have that one long @ 209.63
I guess I am buying at 208.09 207.99 207.89 if it gets that low
otherwsie Iâll hold onto my old long waiting for 209.75
I saw M at scalpers saying short friday afternoon.
trouble ishe wants to get short at like 206.90.
I sure would like to get long there! The theory is getting 2/3âs of the move.
I am sorry I just never really bought into that idea. If I am looking to get long.
I think it is going up and price is 208.00. I donât wait until it hits 208.30 or 208.60 first to make sure it is going up. I trade. I donât wait for trades. I do wait for price to come to me after I am in with a loss leader at market.
I will even scalp at market up and down. But I prefer to get in with one loss leader and place my orders and go away. Like I always say often I make my best profits while I am sleeping.
I donât guess his order is going to get filled down there. It will be unusual at this point for GJ to fall below 207.00 before it blows through 209.00 and tests 210.00.
208.00 is holding. I am sitting with 3 209.63 (OLD) 208.15, 208.09.
BUYING long at 207.99 and down every 10 for a figure. Tight TPâs at 11 and 21 and a few 31âs. I am expecting tight range overnight of my previous 100 pip range 207.20ish 208.20ish.