“The definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over and expecting different results.”
Albert Einstein
Ginger so kindly pointed out my insanity. Now I am wondering why am I doing this with my boys? I keep doing the same thing over and over and
expecting different results. I keep telling them the same thing over and over and they keep doing the same thing…the opposite of what I am telling them, and each time I ignorantly think they are going to change and do what I am saying. But it hasn’t happened yet. Nor will it probably ever.
fxsol lets you have 2 accounts on one login and all you have to do is click to toggle back and forth. So My NJ’s and GJs will be separate. I left the NJ’s at 7.73% used margin which isnt too bad. On my 600 gj account my goals will be to start at 2 goto 4 and have 8% used margin as the max before buying has to stop.
I have to say, that when the guppy reaches a point (after some massive correction?) that the market sees it for what it truly is, a gold mine, it will head up for the stars and never look back. Beyond 251…
The carry trade on this baby is gold. I remember a while back Elijah saying that the yen could not compare to the mighty Great British Pound and that the pound would always win out. Once this market is confident that it isn’t going to be taken under (below 200) she will fly. And maybe that realization is just now coming to be.
I know I could get blasted for this but long term shorts on the guppy seem to be, IMHO, rather counterproductive. The thing moves so fast that if you get stuck with it the carry will kill you. I’ve done it.
Short term scalp shorts, fine. I was up late one night and she took one of those torpedo dives down that we are all so familiar with. I was sleepy and possibly a bit drunk and popped 10 standard lots on her (a demo account my friends) and made $10,000 in about five minutes.
But to hold a long term short…yes, you’ve got to know what you are doing. I know many of you out there are MUCH more savvy than I with the chart reading etc. And yes, setting support alarms and getting out with the fillet is certainly doable. But shorting the guppy now after participating in this forum seems sacrilegious to me. Elijah says singleness of mind and purpose is required. I really do agree with this and it may seem overly “woo woo” to some of you I think when the mind is confused and in conflict decisions made are not clear. This system relies on a “singleness of mind and purpose” when it comes to the direction of the trade…other systems do not. I would rather keep my intentions clear and go forth in the world with single purpose.
But short if you must, little sheep, reap what you sow…
My spreadsheet is finally ready, what is your email address 4xStar so I can mail it to you for uploading. Please bare in mind that this is designed for my trading style but I think it will work for everyone. I also trade in GBP not $ so bare that in mind. It is pretty self explaining but I will try to answer any questions.
I got a loss leader at 213.27 I was trying to get one at 213.20 but dont want to miss the bus.
I know this one could be high but it wont matter and I will be able to box her in now.
The trick is to step down with your next ones further. Liek next one for me is 212.20 then 211.65 and now I can walk away from this slow thing.
This way if she goes up I am on the bus. If she goes down, great I get in long for less.
The loss leader is significant, in case she breaks to the top side my LL is set to TP at about 100 pips. If she breaks down thats ok I will trap hger in a range and buy her all the way down. The weekly chart is looking like it really will break higher so I dont want to miss this as my account is fresh.
I would ratheer get ONE loss leader ‘relatively high’ than to not get one and have her run back towards 214’s. And with next oen down at 100 pips then 55 pips down from there, if those get filled and she moves down still I will keep buying ALL the way down carefully spacing them.
I was thinking soon the dollar will seriously gain on the Rand.
My neighbor at the Winery is from South africa and goes there frequently
and always seems to be enjoyiong the ups and downs of the rand.
GJ is only real one for me. Maybe NJ as a LT investment. I have been watching you too Audry! (AUD/JPY) BUt this one is more like AJ the race car driver. I have yet to figure out AJ but it looks to have a good range and pays interest almost as good as NJ. I am sticking with GJ :). She loves me!
But I cannot do it and beat her double, up and down. She is too fast and changes directions too quickly. She gives you a head & hip fake down, you go for her shorts, and boom she jumps up 100 pips leaving you tied under the bed! See I learned long ago no matter how good you are, you are a fool if you try to beat her up and down. She will get you. She wiped me out 3 years ago on some shorts on her way up to 251, when I swore she couldnt possibly go any further north and AND HAD to come back home, down south.
Playing her up and down is FAR too chaotic. Shorting her is much like going skiing for the first time and finding the biggest steepist most tree filled hill
and taking your first trip on a set of skiis down this hill.
Gj is also one of the more complicated pairs to trade. It has the widest range I think. And I think of it as a major even if it isn’t too most. Its volumne is pretty heavy usually and she has done good by me over the years,
aside from waking up before me and taking my wallet and the truck and leaving me at the motel in my sleeping underwear.
She never really sleeps. Even on the weekends she goes to the beach.
Watch out for her thighs, don’t watch those as you will never know where she is going or if she is coming or going as her speed of movement can cause her to appear as a big blur breezing past you.
I know she is eyeing 213.00 but I am going to sit here and watch her so she cant sneak south of the border. But it looks inevitable, so my orders are in down into 211.65. I really dont think she is going to bet there. I am very bullish. AND I never underestimate her downward fury which is why I am spaced so far going down and my account is using 400:1 on 1K lots with only $600 so I dont have alot to play with yet.
If she does begin her rise, do you buy on the way up? Or do you re-enter on the dips? If you do buy on the way up, do you t/p at intervals as well? As this is my first adventure with her going north I am in new territory. As I am just demo trading atm, I suppose it is not critical what I do but I would not like to begin live trading with bad habits.
Jerry
I’m around now. I had to make some software fixes before tomorrow. I’m just now able to check the charts and can’t find nothing but shorting negative carries. Which is not my favorite thing to do. I may take the week off. We will see.
Are you calling me a fool? Trading the pair up and down is chaotic if you’re day trading it (what everyone calls scalping here), but I don’t operate that way. The combination of spread and (potentially adverse) volatility makes lots of intraday RTs unattractive.
Short from 213.63; but, I’m leery of a reversal candle at the 213, and by the look of it, a bullish reversal may be in the works - a harami/inside bar. If the 2200 ET candle closes above the 2000 ET candle, that will complete a three inside up pattern, which turns things back up, momentum permitting. The last time a three inside up pattern occurred on the Guppy? 0600-0800 ET on 07/16 in the low 208s. How many pips did that reversal signal produce? If any of those occur and is validated overnight, the HL/HH (higher low/higher high) beginning with the high on 07/17 would remain intact. 214 remains the level to close above.
Well based on all that information, I will check over my spreadsheet and see if the calculations agree with the way you explained it (if not, the spreadsheet is wrong, not you :D)
But then why do people say that leverage is the most dangerous part of forex … go around this board and you will find people saying that all over the place … “dangerous” to have high leverage … you can end up owing more than your account value (with some brokers) … is that because with higher leverage, people start taking greater risks, like putting on 40 positions when they should only have 10? Rrram says it is not leverage that is the problem but margin use … so if you have 400:1 leverage and are 40% into margin, that is much riskier than having 100:1 leverage and being 40% into margin … is that it?
