Well, we’ve had an interesting day thus far. Since the 1000 ET H1 candle the pair has been pounding out a floor @ 204.10, but has not closed above 204.58. Now we’ve got a bullish reversal doji on the 1400 M15 candle, but the 1415 candle is sluggish materializing a confirmation. Support just below with the .618 fib fan @ 204.00, 144 EMA @ 203.75, etc.
I don’t typically analyze at this level of granularity, but a) I’ve got the flu, so I’m limited in terms of activity, and b) I do occasionally gratify a usually latent propensity toward picking things apart ad nauseum. Oh, and c) I’d like more pips, if there are any available.
And now that bullish reversal is turning into a flat out bear signal … I don’t think I’ve ever seen the G-Y act this schizophrenic (but then I am very new at trading it, less than 2 months!). I am wondering if it is the effects of the cable pulling it one way and the jpy pulling it another …
Just when you think you know what it should do next, it changes course again.
The g/j is definately out of sync with the dow the last few days.I could not figure out why the dow tanked today and the g.j did not but it is not set in stone that the g/j has to ALWAYS be connected with the dow.Because the g/j is so volotile, I always have a buy and a sell plan.This way I am ready to trade whichever way the g/j decides to go. Also, since breakouts of major levels have not been sustained lately, I like to let it break and pullback before I enter a trade. Attached is a 4 hr chart containing the trades Iwill be taking depending on news, and what the situation is at the time of the price reaching my entries.
You will notice the 4 hr and daily h/s is still intact until 205.00 is breached. Usually when the rt shoulder of a h/s is violated (penetrated) the move can produce several hundred pips off the daily or 4 hr.
Here are the trades I am considering off the 1 hr g/j. I have entered a long position at 203.91 a few minutes ago. I have a stop at 203.49. This isnt an ideal time to trade but the set up looks very probable. If Asia comes online and the trade appears to be failing, I will exit before the stop and reconsider.
There continues to be support off the 144 EMA on H1, presently @ 203.76. My short, though well into profit, still has some intraday tentativeness about it until I see this line broken. My criteria on direction (down) haven’t been nullified, though. The pair is drifting a bit higher in the past few minutes, however, so we’ll see that Tokyo has in store.
P.S. Pipchick - nice entry level, if bias validates you. I can see some technical plausibility for your long, but can you go a bit further into why you took it? Your chart needs a story.
Hi Andrew,
The 1 hr chart has an abc (A = todays Lo, B= todays hi and c is at the 50 % retracement.) pattern and price is supported by the 200 ema and the 100 sma along with the 50% retracement of todays move at 203.71. There is also two other major moving averages just below the 50%. (100 ema and 50 ema) I hope that helps explain why I went long. I tink a break below 203.47 and shorts are in play. Breaks tend to be false lately tho so it seems like pullbacks are a little more valid for now.
Okay - I gathered some of that from the chart, but those further details helped fill it out.
There’s a lot of tinkering about at the 144 EMA right now, with some volatility spikes (hunting stops below this level, I imagine). The pair is at a sort of crossroads today, so I’m looking forward to seeing how it plays out.
Last week was my first experience trading the G/J pair. I use to trade the EUR/USD but due to a job change I’ve had to trade during this time slot. Although I’ve been quite lucky so far, I can definitely see how you would have to be patient when dealing with this pair. It can take you for quite a ride sometimes :eek:
Pairs do have personalities, and traders do develop “relationships” with those pairs they trade most heavily. I monitor and take trades on 18 pairs, but the Guppy has and does command a disproportionate amount of attention - probably because it generates a disproportionate amount of pips.
I’d say you’re definitely on to something there, #1 - patience to ‘learn’ the pair is of great importance. I can think of pairs that function more disparately than EUR/USD and the Guppy; we’re not talking apples and oranges, but there’s certainly a difference in their general behavior. Someone like pipchick who has specialized in the pair for two years can trade it with more-or-less consistent success (correct me if I’m wrong pipchick!); but I’m sure she’d say (as I would) there’s an acclimation period. And even then the pair can be awfully moody.
I thought for sure we had a nice close sub-203.70 lined up there, but I was just waiting for it to evaporate in the last couple minutes…and sure enough, it did. Nothing personal toward the longs, of course.
I can certainly agree with your point about how certain pairs have different “personalities”. In fact I noticed within a few days that with the G/J you have to give it some room to play around a bit. At least in my experiences so far, having tight S/L positions is a sure way to get stung.
… However, I was beginning to wonder myself if price would ever snap back.