I had almost forgotten about this thread … it does seem to be dead compared to others on the G-Y. I say the more G-Y threads the better! We need all the help we can get with the “Vegas Geisha” as I call her…
I’m glad mytwopips bumped this thread up. 
Question though, why does the GBP/JPY pair move with the dow?
It has something to do with taking the positive carry & appreciation against the jen and buying US stocks. Maybe if rhodytrader runs across this thread he can help you. Try to google “gbp/jpy dow”.
I have to admit to purposely neglecting this thread, but only because I didn’t want to post a 14th time in a row in it. 
Run-up to 207, now backed off a bit, but downside is hung up on the .382 retracement (202.50-209.12) @ 206.60. If the candle can close where it is now (206.43), we may have a nice shooting star in the works…
That major drop we had not to long ago must have put some out of the biz.:eek:
The Guppy’s been struggling with the top fib fan (second red line down in middle of chart; see attached) all day and just can’t seem to get the necessary upward momentum together to break it. If it did, we would see 208 in pretty short order. I’m long from 207, looking for some follow-through…
Me too 
Well both of you guys already know that I am swinging the guppy mostly with my own version of rrram2’s strategy. As of right now I am not buying. I had fun that last dip. I wish it would have lasted longer.
My advice to anyone who cares would be to watch very close what happens to price at 209 or at 204. I have a bias to the downside despite the pretty solid uptrend since march.
Seeing what happened yesterday, it could not make it past 208.05, I think you may be right and the bears have her for now. This trip back down was inevitable IMO, question is now, how far down? On a daily or weekly, 199 looks likely, maybe lower?
I’m going to be watching the american stock indexes. I think their recent run up is finally stalling, and will resume the longer-term downtrend shortly. The poor US economy, and tightening credit are not problems that are going to just go away for GBP/JPY. I believe most investors just want to get back into that high yield pair, and are ignoring current signals that things aren’t doing so hot for US equities. If the indexes can break below their lows from March, I think GBP/JPY could make new lows too (<194). Even moreso if BoE cuts rates, as is the current trend for them.
OK, now we really have a struggle … she took out 207, then 208, then 209 with ease… but has seriously stalled at 210. According to Jebatfx (who, curiously has not posted a G-Y update since Friday…) she needed to reverse around the 209 area … or if a breakout, then 213 looks like the next level of resistance.
But she is hovering in between. Rrram2 thinks she will go to 211, not 213, then retrace … and he only buys retracements, never shorts.
So what do to now, me pretties… I guess this is what they call ‘sitting on your hands’ time… until a new direction is confirmed.
I really hope she corrects seriously as akeakamai (hawaiian??) has suggested, that would provide a great ride down and then another equally great one back up.
In the meantime, we await her pleasure…
She’s taking a day off today but overall looks like she will at least tag that 211 mark and then I still hope for the deep correction. If she continues to 213 & above, there needs to be more momentum than we see now.
Cable is probably holding her back and I don’t follow the fundies just price action, so not sure if some sort of news is weighing cable down, on the daily it looks like it could retrace further which may mean the G-Y is not going to get a high momentum breakout or trend reversal just yet…
But I am just rambling because I am bored waiting for the only 3 pairs I trade to do something. 
Bernanke’s Dollar Bulls following has got the GBP/USD nice and suppressed in the near term.
I put my money where my mouth is and shorted GBP/JPY at 210.00. It’s a divergence play for me now. Intermarket divergence with the US stock indexes, and a stochastics divergence on the 4h. I have a small stop of 70pips, but am aiming for much much more than that. I’ll still watch to see if it can break through 209.00 again after holding above it for a few days.
So far that ain’t happenin’! She does not want to go down, even for a retracement, even though cable fell again overnight. Stubborn little wench. Would be so much nicer buying at a lower price I closed my shorts this morning.
So about what price you looking to go long?
US Retail Sales came out up, which means the Indexes should rally which means there should be upward pressure on GBPJPY. And since it’s in a very fine balance right now, I think that could push it over the 210.00 barrier. Shorts lose this battle I think. I got out quick as soon as I saw the number and got +15pips. It’s currently back at 210.00
Today and tomorrow should prove telling. Thus far, two touches @ 210.65 have been pushed back, but with limited dive. After dawdling in the high 209s, price is testing above 210, following strength in U/J after this morning surprise upside retail sales print as akeakamai noted.
Of issue, though, is U/J’s resistance @ 108.13, established in mid-late February, - followed by a downward extension to 96 - coinciding with the Guppy’s attempt to move above and put in some flooring @ 210.
I reversed and went long when I closed the shorts around 209.75.
Haha, I went short again. I’m truly mystified with GBP/JPY right now. Every rally is sold off instantly, and every fall is bought back up instantly. There’s a giant tug of war and I surrender any knowing of which side will win. My short trade has a tight stop because I’m fully accepting the possibility of a jump up, but I think it’s 50/50 so I might as well make a bet with a high risk:reward ratio. I think it’s funny that we ended up in opposite positions at about the same price, good luck to you, I think it’s likely one of us will be very happy after friday’s done…