Well, good.morning traders!
Governor Wheeler.spoke also at 12.10am (GMT), about three and a half hours after the end of the rate decision press conference: in the hour that he spoke, the GBP/NZD dropped another 150 pips; however, it has since caught those pips back, and I particularly want to emphasise what he said at 12.22am, namely that it is “too soon to asses $NZD response to policy announcement, let’s see what $NZD does in next few days”, because the Fed rate decision and forward guidance are very much a factor in shaping the Kiwi-USD exchange rate.
Well traders!
The BoE rate decision was indeed a non-event: no change in the asset purchase level, in the rate decision, and in
forward guidance, as well as the vote staying at 8-1.
The statement is available here:
Bank of England maintains Bank Rate at 0.5% and the size of the Asset Purchase Programme at £375 billion | Bank of England
I have also taken a screenshot of it, below:
So far, the Pound has been dropping 100+ pips in both GBP/NZD and GBP/USD, respectively on the left and right
of this screenshot from my FXCM five-minute Marketscope charts:
Good morning, traders!
GBP/NZD has been dropping within about thirty-forty pips of the 200-day simple moving average (currently at 1.2323), in a move that is neither fed by GBP/USD (which has been rising back toward 1.52) nor by NZD/USD (which is stuck between 0.6750 and 0.68 - very old levels)…
Well, hello traders!
From my last entry, where GBP/NZD was near 2.2350,
it has now shot up to nearly 2.2650…
That is nearly 300 pips to the upside, running like a bitten demon from
that 200-day moving average it so nearly touched!!!
Bullish GBP/NZD?
Yes, please
Hello traders!
Less than two hours to the start of what may be the most exciting trading week of the year’s end!
I just wanted to remind Kiwi traders that on Tuesday (15th) there will be the final Global Dairy Trade
auction, so watch to see if the last pick up in price (on the 1st December) will be sustained or if the
previous down-trend will continue…
yohec
December 14, 2015, 7:37am
830
I set a SL last night before going to sleep and it got hit. Closed at 2.2630 for +100 pips.
I’m all out GBP/NZD.
Hello traders! Less than two hours to the start of what may be the most exciting trading week of the year’s end! I just wanted to remind Kiwi traders that on Tuesday (15th) there will be the final Global Dairy Trade auction, so watch to see if the last pick up in price (on the 1st December) will be sustained or if the previous down-trend will continue…
I’m in. +200 for a start of the week. I’m targeting 2.1555 as an exit.
Hello traders!
Shiver me timbers!!!
The pair has been falling sharply today,
although there seems to be no direct cause
for it except a technical move (who knows)!!
The screenshot here does not show the 200-day simple
moving average, as this is the 5m chart; on the day chart,
the 200-day s.m.a. is at 2.2333.
Interesting times…
eddieb
December 14, 2015, 11:12am
834
Never been glader to be out of a pair. Cant see anything planned between now and Xmas to warrant re entering.
[QUOTE=“eddieb;737765”]Never been glader to be out of a pair. Cant see anything planned between now and Xmas to warrant re entering.[/QUOTE]
What are you talking about?? I’m up 300 handles. This will be a fantastic Christmas.
Hello CaMike…
You should appreciate that we have been battling with this pair for many months, so it is not
that we do not like it… we already had many traders (including myself) experiencing the
‘fantastic Christmas’ many times over, throughout the year, so … you are a bit late to the
party, but welcome anyway, and may the Kiwi fortune be with you!
yohec
December 14, 2015, 12:23pm
837
It just crossed the 200 SMA. Unless the Global Dairy Trade news tomorrow has a major impact, it doesn’t look like there is anything to hold it back from 2.150.
I’m holding a short position from 2.2425.
Hi Yohec…
Yes, it has, as I was saying earlier, but… it has not really committed to this move, so it is neither here
nor there…
We need a stronger move to confirm…
Yes, if tomorrow brings no Kiwi-negative sentiment, then it will be up to Yellen to sink NZD/USD
out of history (I am sure Gov. Wheeler would not mind a bit of Kiwi depreciation, just like us)!
Good luck with your GBP/NZD short, however!
yohec
December 14, 2015, 1:25pm
839
PipMeHappy:
Hi Yohec…
Yes, it has, as I was saying earlier, but… it has not really committed to this move, so it is neither here
Good luck with your GBP/NZD short, however!
I entered the short trade several days ago based on a signal service provider I subscribe to. So I was holding a long and a short simultaneously on different accounts. So far it has worked out well. I exited the long with 100 pips profit and the short is currently in profit. I’m still a long way from either TP or SL on the short trade.
According to Jamie Saettele of DailyFX.com , NZD/USD is at a crossroads where it may be asserting its long-term
downtrend through a temporary correction but also giving cause to think that it may be bottoming out; in his
analysis of the Commitment of Traders (COT) report by the CFTC (Commodity Futures Trading Commission),
which is released every Friday for the previous Tuesday (therefore it is always lagging by three days), he sees
that from a weekly perspective we are approaching the May 2015 plateau of 10,000 standard-lot long contracts
in the non-commercial sector, which may be indicative that the net-long momentum may be waning and
about to start reversing:
This is also what I observed in looking at the Oanda COT graph for NZD/USD, which I have taken a screenshot of
here:
Well, good morning everyone!!
Our pair has now crept all the way down to 2.23, and
it has attempted pushing lower: this exaggerated move
has been bid by a bullish NZD/USD, which has just
reached above 0.68…
WAITING FOR THE
GLOBAL DAIRY TRADE AUCTION RESULTS
Will it sink or lift the Kiwi?
The results are out!
[B]+1.9%[/B]
What will happen to the Kiwi?
