GBP/NZD moving slow today? Why?

God help us

Sold hard right here and now

Hello pippin!

What are you selling? GBP/NZD? What is your target?

Are you intra-day, position, scalp trading?

Who do you mean by ‘this guy’… the RBNZ Governor?

They call him the ‘old fox’… He really knows how to work

the press… :slight_smile:

This is why:

Wheeler moves to cool OCR speculation | Radio New Zealand News


These appointments are as displayed on the
Bank of England’s website…

Price is consolidating. Which is cool, because expansion is soon to follow.

Hello traders! I will be watching the ‘Big Short’ later this morning at the cinema :slight_smile:

Meanwhile, since Tuesday, the Pound has risen about 400 pips, while the Kiwi about 250: so why, one might ask, has GBP/NZD been p i s s i n g a b o u t all over the charts?

It is now struggling around 2.19, not sure what to do with itself: there is clearly a Pound bid, and this would normally help GBP/NZD, but since Gov. Wheeler spoke earlier this week there has also been a Kiwi bid. With GBP/NZD being mostly correlated to the Kiwi/Dollar, rather than the Pound/Dollar, this is not at all surprising, and the Pound’s modest rise has been more of a USD-fuelled move, given the Greenback’s slump yesterday from its seemingly solid 12,200 holdout…

I doubt that the BoE’s data later today (midday, GMT) will do much for Sterling, but you just never know…

Happy Trading

The pair is rising towards 0.6800, I think. A breakout above that level would indicate a further rally towards the next level of resistance around 0.6820.

[QUOTE=“mlawson71;746884”]The pair is rising towards 0.6800, I think. A breakout above that level would indicate a further rally towards the next level of resistance around 0.6820.[/QUOTE]

I’ll keep my eye out for it. It’s looking good.

Hello traders!

For the third week in a row, the CFTC’s Commitment of Traders report last Friday showed a growing open positioning volume for net-shorts on the Kiwi, which
once more ties in with the relationship between this similar turn in May 2015 and the decline seen back then in NZD/USD.


The above screenshot was taken from Oanda’s
COT website, and relates only to non-commercial traders.

Hello traders!

The COT report last Friday showed growing short positioning on Kiwi for the fourth week in a row:


The next Kiwi down-turn is coming :slight_smile:

Hello Kiwi traders!

Remember that tomorrow, Tuesday 16th February 2016, will be the

Global Dairy Trade auction, which may be hugely influential for the

Kiwi exchange rate…

https://www.globaldairytrade.info/

You can see from the above website’s graph that SIX of the last EIGHT

auctions have been negative, so if El Niño’s effects and global over-supply

will continue to add further down-pricing to New Zealand’s dairy farmers,

many of them will struggle to stay in the game… Add to that the slowdown

of the Chinese economy and the effect that this has had on New Zealand’s

exporting volume to that nation, and you will see how easy it would be to

expect further clouds on the horizon.

…by Sam Coventry, in which she covers a number of key (fundamental and technical) points:

Published on Monday 15th February.


Wow…

Finally some fuel to light this flame?

…toward the 0.65 area…


The next few days will be very interesting.


Hello Yohec,

indeed…

I am absolutely disgusted at the way in which markets are conducting themselves…

The S&P500 lost its ground in January, coming down from record highs, and… now it refuses to break that

1,800 handle… Indeed, all equities (and Yen crosses) have regained ground this week, as some kind of

desperate last gasp before the inevitable fall into the abyss that awaits these overinflated assets…

Interesting how (in my opinion) GBP/NZD has become sensitive to this ‘risk-off’ sentiment, as though

its run up from April 2015 had somehow been tied to speculative, ‘risk-on’ capital markets… Yes, we

could dig up the story that it was the bad old British Pound to drag down the GBP/NZD, but I do not buy

it, because pairs like EUR/GBP have not risen so dramatically, so I think that aggressive selling in GBP/NZD

has a dynamic that is more tied to a ‘risk-off’ sentiment than anything concerning the Kiwi or the Pound…

This begs the question: if, say, the major equity indices (such as the S&P500 and Nikkei225) were to capitulate

and break below current psychological hold-outs, would GBP/NZD also hammer down past that all-important 2.15?

Would it look past any upcoming Kiwi weakness and continue its journey south regardless?

The only saving grace for long-term resumption of the April-September 2015 uptrend would be a collapse of

the Kiwi, and/or some kind of incredibly positive surprise from the UK employment, inflation, and retail/expenditure

data… all of which seems less likely in the medium term than a continuation of the early-2016 ‘risk-off’ sentiment

and, therefore, more selling pressure on GBP/NZD…

As you say, Yohec, ‘the next few days will be very interesting’, to which I would add ‘the next few weeks/months’…

I’ve taken a smallish size long position on GBP/NZD at 2.1533. I’m gambling that the 2.1500 support will hold. But I’ll cut my losses if it reaches 2.1400.

Its taken me a while to break the very successful habit of going long, but now im trading slightly short time frames (a couple of days on average instead of 8) so I find myself switching between long and short, but its working out ok for now