GBP/NZD moving slow today? Why?

[PipMeHappy]

Whats not to love about trading these pairs.
GbpNzd dropped 180 pips between 9.00am and 11.00am, trundles along, then recovers back to 9.00am levels in 20 minutes

Priceless indeed

[baz1982]

I’m inclined to short it again for 2.13 but I’ve not got the time to watch for a set-up & I’ve not got the faith for a blind entry.

In the lower TF’s, we appear to be bouncing between 2.13 & 2.15 so I’d be tempted to play the range until proven otherwise but in the longer term, with the daily candle recovering back up to this morning’s levels, it looks like a pin -bar (although the candle means nothing until it closes) & it’s in-line with the last impulsive move that occurred (NZD rate cut).

With the above considered, I going to keep hold of my winnings & wait for a better set-up to present itself.

[eddieb]

I’m inclined to short it again for 2.13 but I’ve not got the time to watch for a set-up & I’ve not got the faith for a blind entry.

In the lower TF’s, we appear to be bouncing between 2.13 & 2.15 so I’d be tempted to play the range until proven otherwise but in the longer term, with the daily candle recovering back up to this morning’s levels, it looks like a pin -bar (although the candle means nothing until it closes) & it’s in-line with the last impulsive move that occurred (NZD rate cut).

With the above considered, I going to keep hold of my winnings & wait for a better set-up to present itself.

Sometimes the best thing to do is to keep your hands in your pockets

[baz1982]

[QUOTE=“eddieb;753502”] Sometimes the best thing to do is to keep your hands in your pockets[/QUOTE]

I’m Scottish, it’s what we do best.

[eddieb]

I’m Scottish, it’s what we do best.

Short arms and deep pockets

[PipMeHappy]

I’m Scottish, it’s what we do best.

Haha funny

[ifx10000]

GBPNZD Daily

It seems overall trend is still valid. Think it will hit somewhere on 2.1145 next few days.

[Hendrik_Van_der_Decken]

Hi guys

I think that it will fall soon, but I can’t find a way in!

[yohec]

Hi guys

I think that it will fall soon, but I can’t find a way in!

You could place a Sell Stop somewhere between 2.1450 and 2.1500. I am short from 2.1460. I also have a Sell Stop at 2.1550. The down trend appears to still be very strong.

[Hendrik_Van_der_Decken]

You could place a Sell Stop somewhere between 2.1450 and 2.1500. I am short from 2.1460. I also have a Sell Stop at 2.1550. The down trend appears to still be very strong.

Yohec, I’ll try it! I have to dominate my fears!

[Hendrik_Van_der_Decken]

You could place a Sell Stop somewhere between 2.1450 and 2.1500. I am short from 2.1460. I also have a Sell Stop at 2.1550. The down trend appears to still be very strong.

Sold in 2.14467 and 2.14723… A little bit of move tonite!!! If I am lucky I’ll owe you a pint!

[yohec]

Sold in 2.14467 and 2.14723… A little bit of move tonite!!! If I am lucky I’ll owe you a pint!

I think you did well to go short, it should continue the downtrend. But don’t be too surprised if it first makes a big move up past 2.15.

Good luck to us!

[PipMeHappy]

Hello Baz, Yohec, and Eddie!

Well, what a week!

Yesterday, big moves because of the dairy trade results…

Today, we have:

• UK Employment/Unemployment Data (9.30am GMT);

• Chancellor of the Exchequer delivers budget to UK Parliament (12.30pm);

• FOMC rate decision, inflation forecast/growth update (6pm GMT);

• Yellen press conference (6.30pm GMT);

• New Zealand GDP (9.45pm GMT).

If this were not enough… tomorrow we have the

Bank of England rate decision!!

Putting it all into perspective, though, I imagine that of all these events,

the only truly market-moving one (and of meaningful impact for GBP/NZD)

in the next 24-48 hours will be the FOMC rate decision and Chair’s presser:

with the BoE giving no forward guidance, and unlikely to change its stance

on the interest rate or asset purchases, this will be almost a non-event.

As for the Chancellor’s budget, it is unlikely to be given much scope by the

markets, unless something incredibly unforeseen is announced, which is unlikely,

especially given that with the referendum only four months away, Osborne will

not want to rock the boat too much.

Good luck to us all!

Let us see, truly, if the 2.15 that we all talked about will indeed be broken, at last!

[baz1982]

I can definitely see 2.15 being broken, but like Yohec said, it could easily be used as a spring to slam price lower. The question would be if/when it breaks, will it hold?

I’m not naive to the possibility that it will push lower as the structure is there & as mentioned before, there’s uncertainty surrounding the Brexit which has people considering their risk tolerances with the GBP.

[eddieb]

You could place a Sell Stop somewhere between 2.1450 and 2.1500. I am short from 2.1460. I also have a Sell Stop at 2.1550. The down trend appears to still be very strong.

Im the opposite, long at 2.1360

[PipMeHappy]

@baz1982

I can definitely see 2.15 being broken, but like Yohec said, it could easily be used as a spring to slam price lower. The question would be if/when it breaks, will it hold?

I’m not naive to the possibility that it will push lower as the structure is there & as mentioned before, there’s uncertainty surrounding the Brexit which has people considering their risk tolerances with the GBP.

In the short and medium term, this may be so; however, there is a long-term reversal signal of a decade-plus

downtrend, which I have been banging on for a while, as you may see in the following (monthly) chart:

I am not the only one talking about this, so I know it has been noticed; whether the market conditions will

support this technical set-up or not, that is indeed the question, so I agree that in the months leading to

the summer there will be a lot of important opportunities for the market to position accordingly across

a number of assets.

[PipMeHappy]

UK Employment data release and 15-minute reaction

on the 5m GBP/USD chart (vertical dotted line is the 9.30 point):

[yohec]

You could place a Sell Stop somewhere between 2.1450 and 2.1500. I am short from 2.1460. I also have a Sell Stop at 2.1550. The down trend appears to still be very strong.

I closed my GBP/NZD short at 2.1355 for +105 pips.

[baz1982]

[QUOTE=“yohec;753650”] I closed my GBP/NZD short at 2.1355 for +105 pips.[/QUOTE]

Had I traded the short that I was contemplating, that’s pretty much where my TP would have been (61% retracement).

Hourly chart is looking a bit indecisive: upper wicks, then a pin-bar support off 2.13. Too scrappy for me still.

Gut says trade the bounce up from 2.13, head says do sit it out. Being at work, my attention is elsewhere so I’ll be doing the latter.

[yohec]

Had I traded the short that I was contemplating, that’s pretty much where my TP would have been (61% retracement).

Hourly chart is looking a bit indecisive: upper wicks, then a pin-bar support off 2.13. Too scrappy for me still.

Gut says trade the bounce up from 2.13, head says do sit it out. Being at work, my attention is elsewhere so I’ll be doing the latter.

Since last week, I’ve had three 100 pip winners taking shorts from around 2.1450 to 2.1350. But I’ve been cautiously taking half size positions because it could rally past the 2.15 level. I don’t want to get caught with a big short position when it does.

I’ll be watching the reaction after FOMC.