so you are expecting the EUR to strengthen v the GBP. Long EUR GBP would be an even better trade.
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That’s great, but what’s the thread title called here?
Also, frequently only one of the two potential orders will be triggered in either EU or GU, so the risk is spread and currency specific parameters set according to individual volatility.
Seems far more appealing to go 2% each way rather than lumping 4% on an EG trade just to match the maximum potential gain.
It’s swings and roundabouts at the end of the day. But I’d be careful saying it would be “even better” to trade EG cross pair, there’s a reason I frequently net off both GU and EU with opposing long and shorts against a static USD. Even more so in the current times when their direct positive correlation has severely diminished on the higher TFs.
Beacon, I have not done a thread on trading deviation from the mean. I’m good on logic and imagery but short on the math. However the Bollinger Bands is great for trading this concept and Kathy Lien has written a few books on the subject as well.,
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ok, I hope it works out for you.
But it really has little to do with the purpose of this thread.
I’m sure we would all enjoy you making your own thread where you can discuss this in great depth.
Bacon, NP I do trade the EURUSD & GBPUSD mostly so if you don’t mind I’ll hang out.
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Thx, EURUSD on the monthly and weekly is basically flat and I don’t think will really move until the USD does. Maybe a small bullish continuation but basically heading to the south which I think the 1 Hour conforms.
Thats side here is my view of the 4HR EURUSD.
GBPUSD I agree with your sentiment heading south. However I think there is brief cause for concern of a sideways movement as the bands maybe displaying a small inward turning to a squeeze play until the pair really hits the slide.
Also I think of note historically the GBPUSD has been none correlated to the USD and is now mostly correlated.
You’ll find that it you look back prior to Brexit taking pole position in GBP.USD that it did indeed highly correlate to USD. You’ll also find that EUR.USD against GBP.USD was around a 90% positive correlation rate.
USD.CHF against EUR.USD also having an exceptionally aligned negative correlation (more so prior to the SNB depegging the Swiss Franc).
Bacon, thx.
maybe mistaken, historically a bullish USD and USD/XXX are bullish conversely USD bearish and xxx/USD bearish.
I don’t follow the SNB and will need to check that relationship out.
Absolutely, it doesn’t matter where USD sits in the pair, be it the base or the quote - the majors certainly relate to the USD, be it positively or negatively, it’s still a correlation.
Beacon, almost 100% of the time I would agree with that and thank you very much for the USD table. Perhaps I notice it a bit more trading lower time frames on the NY open. The attached day chart shows the last two-week of the GBPUSD to cooperating. Appreciate your valued posts but let’s move on. Thx.
Exactly! Your table shows an almost perfect negative correlation, with the exception of perhaps January in GBP.USD due to increasing Brexit talks (GBP being the dominant driver).
This is why I said it would be cool for you to open a new thread with your ideas as it’s not relevant to the trades I’m placing. I’m trying to be nice!
Anyway… Time to get ready for the super bowl
Edit: This is why this is in the journal section - for me to journal my trades and for others to keep track in a clean fashion - it makes for better reading and judgment can be made. Feel free to hit me up in the general chat section of BP for other reasons.
Adios and NP perhaps BP should add a button that is tantamount to no trespassing even if it’s on topic or constructive. Obviously, that is in the eye of the beholder.
No hard feelings, enjoy your time trading and may your pips be consistently green
Thanks Midwest - my intention is to keep this thread super clean and on point. I’m not looking for other peoples analysis to agree or disagree with my own. I’d drop that in the Beginner Questions section if I was.
Best of luck to you too.
Bacon is correct, only noticed just now that this is a journal so I’ll butt out as well.
This is only for lurkers/learners on the thread.
See how Eur/Gbp affected GBP/USD this past few days, I mentioned it earlier (around post 23) this thread in the lead up to the month end and the reasons for same.
Anyways, many thanks Jezz.
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Update EUR.USD & GBP.USD Week 6/52 :
GBP.USD - Looks like the entry was missed by about 20 pips and now the initial TP level to the lower side has been hit - shrug… A slow week again for pending orders.
EUR.USD - Currently sat above the buy order by around 10 pips, it’s looking like it might be triggered in the short term for the long position.
Edit: Notice how these two trades would not have overlapped one another - this is why it’s not quite correct to cross the two trades into a comparison against the EUR.GBP as they do not net off against one another in this scenario. Both EU and GU are being considered in isolation to one another.
Update: EUR.USD long order triggered
Udate: EUR.USD long order
The 1.4000 level seemed to provide little in the way of support - here’s to watching how we progress throughout the day and potentially into tomorrow. 1.1380 is now the level of intraday support where we are sat at the time of writing this.
If the E U is rising and the G U is falling then if the E G is not rising greater than the E U there is an arbitrage opportunity which should be examined.
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In hindsight yes, but not a pair to consider in this thread. Thanks
Update EUR.USD Position Week 6/52
A poor start to the year, four weeks in and I’ve racked up a double loss at -4% in total, a single profitable trade at +4% and a BE trade. Account sat at a marginal +0.26%
Four trades in three weeks, yep it’s low yielding but patience is a virtue. With such low yielding trades (as expected with two potential odrders per week) let’s give this a few months to mature, it’s going to take time. By April month end I’m expecting a solid +40% gain… feel free to quote me on this come April month end too 
I see @Trendswithbenefits in his own approach would have skimmed the move down nicely in EU - kudos to that approach! I went contra-trend at 1.1400, didn’t pay off.
Catch you on the other side of next week for order updates.
I take it the message here is, don’t quit your day job unless you can live off $26.01 gains.