Great Analysis there on GBP/USD ForexPortal. It is true that 1.525 is a position worth noting, and so its 1.520 and 1.530. The previous two marked two crucial reversal points for the pair. The 1.530 seems to have set stage for the next pullback, from which 1.525 would make a realistic support level. Nonetheless, the bullish long-term outlook remains positive for now, and I believe from 1.525 upwards, the next pullback could come at around 1.535. Therefore, as a Swing trader I would be looking to pounce at 1.525, with profit target at 1.535 and a stop loss at 1.520.
GBP/USD sits at a critical level - the 23.6 Monthly Fibonacci at 1.5308.
I had expected GBP BEARS to enter the market at this level and drive the BULLS back.
This has not happened.
This suggest that the BULLS still have control of this market.
Since taking out 1.5308 at 18:00 yesterday the BEARS have failed to drive the BULLS back under this line.
So far we have an impasse with the BEARS unable to push the BULLS back under the Fib level and the BULLS insufficiently strong enough to make ground north.
I suspect we may see price trade in a narrow channel as both sides wait to see what happens at the all important release of the Non-Farm Employment Change and the Unemployment rate out of the US at 13:30 GMT.
I’m in this market at 1.5330 with a STOP below the Fib. at 1.5300 for a 30 pip risk.
Having read what the main analysts expect at 13:30 popular opinion is for little room for an upside surprise.
This means the USD could come under pressure post release and GBP BULLS could party.
1.5620 would be the target area for GBP BULLS next week if the BEARS cannot arrest this BULL move north.
The critical NFP numbers exceeded expectation by 21k which was enough for the GBP BEARS to enter the market.
As posted previously I was hoping for an even print or a miss to help my GBP BULL trade which was STOPPED.
I believe however that the BULLS are by no means finished with GBP/USD and this retrace will eventually fade and GBP BULLS will enter back in and drive the price back to the 23.6 Fib and beyond.
I’m back in LONG at 1.5279 with an open STOP that I will manage in case GBP loses more ground than I anticipate.
Although the NFP numbers were better than expected they were hardly stellar and its my opinion that this 90 pip pullback is a temporary retrace and therefore a BUYING opportunity.
I would need to see GBP/USD close below 1.5160 to alter this analysis.
The GBP BULLS had a good week last week but fell back on Friday following better than expected NFP numbers from the US.
I suggested that although the NFP numbers were good they may not be sufficient to be a game changer and although GBP pulled back to 1.5206, heavy support in this area coming from 61.8 Hourly Fib plus a well defined area of support combined with the Weekly and Monthly Pivot below appear to have halted the BEARS so far.
My LONG from 1.5279 is still under water but I haven’t changed my overall outlook that GBP is headed higher.
The H4 chart is becoming interesting as we would appear to be heading for an MA squeeze as the 100 sma tracks north.
An entry LONG here is not advised as a move down to 1.52 area cannot be ruled out but a break and hold above the 200 sma on the 1m chart (currently at 1.5236 but moving south) could be a trading opportunity.
Very thin news day with G20 not expecting to impact the markets.
I shall update this later once we see where GBP is headed over the next few hours.
For those looking to trade GBP/USD here would be a reasonable place to get LONG (1.5234)
Place your STOP under yesterdays low and the 61.8 Fob at at 1.5210 for a 24 pip risk.
If the price gets to 1.5254 move your STOP to break even.
Yesterdays trade from 1.5234 was STOPPED on one of my platforms but survived on another so yesterdays afternoon low was either 1.5210 or 1.5209 depending on your feed. My surviving trade however made no ground and I exited this morning at break even.
Todays manufacturing production numbers missed which has sent GBP tumbling but we now sit at a confluence of support coming in the shape of Weekly and Monthly Pivot and 200 EMA on the H1 chart.
I remain BULLISH in this market but a break and hold above 1.5228 is needed before we can consider taking a LONG position.
No more red flag news due today so we may see price consolidate between 1.5249 and 1.5195 over the next few hours.
At the moment the GBP/USD currency pair is experiencing a short-term rebound and looks en-route towards completing the cup and handle pattern. However, the main trend is still bearish and the right move now could be a shorting position.With target at 1.4900 and stop loss at 1.5350.
GBP is close to breaking through the upper channel its has been locked in since July 2014 although channels such as these are notoriously difficult to pinpoint exactly.
I’m LONG from 1.5279 with an initial target of 1.5400 where the R1 pivot lies.
The 23.6 Monthly pivot comes in at 1.5309 and the upper channel is in exactly the same area.
A break and hold of the previously broken 23.6 Fib could see GBP accelerate north.
Very thin news day so this trade is unlikely to be affected by news.
Below 1.5184 turns the pair negative to 1.5034 but all the signs are we headed higher.
At 10:30 GMT Gov Carney holds a press conference and we get the BOE Inflation Report.
GBP’s direction after Carney will clearly depend what is said but the picture remains short/medium term BULLISH as long as we remain above 1.4942.
GBP BULLS initial problem will be the top of the descending channel it is in which coincides with the 23.6 Monthly Fibonacci so formidable resistance.
WR1 and MR1 pivots lie at 1.5398 and 1.5417 which will draw GBP higher in the event of Carney being neutral or GBP BULLISH.
As long as we remain above 1.5184 and 1.5193 Weekly Pivot and Monthly Pivot GBP will be supported but this support will vanish if Carney is GBP negative.
I remain LONG from 1.5279 with an open STOP.
5 minutes before Carney.
Gov. Carneys GBP positive speech has sent GBP/USD strongly north and the 2 levels I mentioned in my previous post have been taken out.
Its almost certain we will see a pullback from these overbought levels so anyone not in this market needs to wait to see where we go from here.
Most probably GBP/USD will consolidate now for a session or two as o.b. conditions are eased and the sma’s catch up with the price.
Its likely price will drift lower from here to the 1.5299 to 1.5308 area where yesterdays high, the 23.6 Fib and the Upper Channel meet.
However, 13:30 see the release of the key Retail Sales numbers out of the US.
If these numbers miss big then there will be less scope for a US rate increase later in the year and GBP could take off again.
Conversely should the numbers exceed expectation then GBP could give back much of its gains which is why entering a trade on GBP/USD currently is very risky.
I think the USD still remains significantly stronger to the pound and the recent uptrend could come to a close very soon. In fact, over the next few days, I would’t bet against the pair testing the 1.5000 mark. For the moment the price remains range-bound at 1.5300 and 1.4900 levels.
I exited my LONG from 1.5279 at WR1 at 1.5398 for a tidy 119+ pips and now we wait.
WR1 and MR1 would have sent GBP much lower if the USD was still dominating GBP but the fact that this hasn’t happened suggest GBP BULLS are still in control of this market and the GBP is headed higher.
The poor Retail Sales, Core Retail Sales and Unemployment Claims have thrown into question the chance of a rate rise any time soon out of the USA.
The GBP has been crushed against the USD since July of 2104 and we could be seeing the start of a more meaningful move north.
No matter where you draw the upper channel GBP has been stuck in, its clear it has now broken out of it and has closed well above the 23.6 Monthly fib.
From here I expect GBP to consolidate and drift south as overbought conditions are relieved but how far the retrace will go is unclear.
1.5300 looks a possible target as this is the 76.4 Hourly Fib and 23.6 Monthly Fib.
1.5350 also offer support.
If we get oversold conditions on the smaller time frames I may look for an entry but until then I shall stay out of this market until 15:00 when we get Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment numbers which will further boost the GBP if the numbers miss significantly.
Several targets there for the shorts to ponder depending on their trading time frames. The immediate target now looks like 1.5350, while 1.5300 also is achievable for the more patient trader.
On the way up, options are limited, as cable appears to be facing a strong resistance at 1.5400. Honestly, I never thought GBPUSD would break 1.5300 in the first place. So you never know. But I think the USD will respond in kind next week.
GBP is forging ahead and remains moving strongly north.
A solid band of support now lies below current levels and further support lies beneath that. Resistance above is limited to Weekly R1 at 1.5483 which is where I expect GBP to be headed next though 1.5420 resistance coming in from MR1 pivot will offer some resistance but its not likely to be significant.
It should be noted however that on lower time frames the RSI is stretched so expect a pullback from these levels.
Above 1.5483 targets 1.5625 resistance.
The RSI on the H4 also suggest we’re headed higher as long as we remain above the rising trendline.
I’m in this market from 1.5262
and shall only exit on a fall below 1.5350 area.
Very thin news day so GBP is free to go where the market takes it which is a good indication of the strength of the BULLS and the BEARS without the influence of news.
With yesterdays US Bank Holiday and issues with Greece at the Eurogroup Meeting, GBP was largely on the back foot and gave back some of its advances from Thursday as it looked for support.
I had anticipated a pullback from Mondays high and my 1.5350 STOP (+88) was hit as GBP eventually found support at the Weekly Pivot at 1.5340.
Today’s release of the UK CPI numbers which met target (0.3%) have given fresh impetus to the BULLS and I expect GBP/USD to advance from here back initially to MR1 (1.5417) and yesterdays high above that (1.5439). From there I expect GBP to target its prime objective 1.5484 the WR1 pivot.
Naturally these targets will not be met anytime soon and although the rest of the day is fairly news light as far as GBP releases are concerned tomorrow will be highly significant with Average Earnings, Claimant Count, MPC and the much anticipated FOMC Minutes at 19:00 which could be a game changer.
So as far as today trades, I’m back in LONG from 1.5364 with a managed STOP.
Yesterday we saw GBP/USD trade in a fairly narrow range in between support and resistance as the market would appear to have been waiting for key economic news at 09:30.
That news came in above expectation with Claimant Count putting in a -38.6K number against -25.2k and Average Earnings at 2.1% against 1.7% expected.
These numbers should see GBP BULLS remain in control of the market until we get to 19:00 and the key FOMC Minutes.
Currently we are at 1.5432 and its likely we will see a period of consolidation and probably a retrace to ease overbought conditions so chasing this move from here is not advised in fact I’ve closed my LONG from 1.5364 to bank the pips and shall look to re-enter this market lower down once price has returned to the 200 sma. An entry at break even pre FOMC would be an ideal trade.
My expectations from the FOMC are dollar neutral. In other words I don’t think we’ll be getting any imminent announcement of a rate hike but then I’m not expecting news that the Fed are putting off a hike until Q4.
It seems unlikely the Fed will raise in July but I think markets are building that news in.
Overall I expect the GBP BULLS to be firmly in command of this pair post FOMC.
GBP positive news this week has seen GBP/USD rise enough to approach the key WR1 resistance level but GBP BEARS stepped in before 1.5484 was reached (1.5479 high).
This was possibly significant as it suggest that this area is heavily defended and GBP BULLS may struggle to break this level down.
Its unlikely they will be able to do this from these levels and its highly likely GBP will retreat from here in order to gather strength from support lower down in order for a second attempt to move higher.
The rising trendline indicated is a possible area of support as this area would be supported by the 100 and 200 sma but until we get there we won’t know.
News at 13:30 (US Unemployment) and 15:00 (US Philly Fed) will have a bearing.
Dollar positive news will weaken GBP BULLS who may have to consolidate longer before moving higher.
The current uptrend remains in tact however as long as we remain above 1.5311 which is likely bar any unexpected news.
Yesterday GBP/USD drifted south in order to alleviate overbought conditions and to gather strength for another run at WR1 pivot.
The trendline support failed dramatically when sustained sellers entered into the market on London open at 08:00.
The price was pushed down to the key support of the 200 sma but interestingly the release of the Retail Sales numbers (exp. -0.1% actual -0.3%) did not accelerate this move south and the 200 held (H1).
This would suggest that the BULLS have shrugged off these weak Retail Sales numbers and are poised to move away from the 200 sma and have another go at WR1.
I’m back in LONG from 1.5360 with a STOP at 1.5367 so I’m +7 on this trade.
There’s no specific GBP news due now until Monday although its possible the EuroGroup Meeting may spring a surprise so tight STOPS are advisable.
I think its highly unlikely we’ll see the BULLS push anywhere near 1.5480 (WR1) today so the area to watch will be 1.5416 where there is a confluence of resistance.
GBP has come under pressure in the last few trading days since hitting WR1 pivot last Wednesday.
No further attempts have been made by GBP BULLS to head north and the field has been left to the BEARS as they head for lower ground.
The key area is now 1.5308. This is WS1 key support pivot and it exactly coincides with the 23.6 Fib taken from the Monthly chart.
The whole area 1.5352 down to 1.5308 is an active area so we could see a bounce anywhere from this area though its likely the BEARS will target 1.5308.
Should they get there they will be over extended and in the absence of news its unlikely they will get much further.
If however they do make it down to 1.5308 and succeed in breaking through this area then this would throw into question the current BULL rally.
I’m still looking for LONGS from this position although there has been a broadening USD bullishness on the back of a potential June rate hike. I think this is unlikely in the current climate though it will make FED Chair Yellens testimony at 15:00 GMT Tuesday highly significant.What Yellen has to say tomorrow could be a game changer but I suspect we’ll hear more in the way of caution than any overt signal that a rate rise is imminent.