LONG from 1.5596 STOP 1.5565.
Just gone LONG here as we’ve cleared the Monthly Pivot and returned to the 200 sma on H1 to test and bounce away.
Looking for WR1 initially at 1.5640 then see what happens.
STOP is under the 200 sma at 1.5565
Yesterday I went LONG from 1.5596 looking for WR1 Pivot initially at 1.5640.
The big test for GBP BULLS is to overcome this resistance and head for 1.5673 previous highs.
If we drop below 1.5628 (yesterdays high) I shall close this trade and look to buy back lower down.
The USD looks weak across the board so I’m not looking for shorts on G/U for the time being but all eyes and ears are on the upcoming FOMC statement at 19:00 GMT.
This meeting is particularly significant as there is no FOMC statement due next month so traders will be scrutinizing every word in an attempt to gauge any hawkish or dovish content.
My LONG from 1.5596 hit target at 1.5673 and I closed this trade after it was clear the BEARS had taken control.
The BEARS drive south was halted by the Monthly Pivot which acted as support where it had acted as resistance 3 days previously.
1.5672 is now key to GBP/USD. Its likely we’ll see another attempt to take this level out but the WR1 Pivot lies above at 1.5641 so LONGS from here (1.5612) could be risky.
I think sitting back for an hour or two is the best course of action to see which way the market moves.
There’s a raft of US Data at 13:30 with Advance GDP, Goods Trade Balance and Unemployment Claims which is likely to set the USD’s direction for the rest of the day.
Currently GBP/USd is trapped in a well defined band between 1.5560 and 1.5672.
Support from the Monthly Pivot and 38.2 Fib on the DTF will probably see GBP head higher from here but I think we need to clear 1.56 before we can look for LONG positions.
1.5923 remains the mid term target for this pair as long as 1.5300 holds.
Below 1.53 and we turn increasingly BEARISH but I just prefer LONG trades from these levels.
All a bit muddy currently so best to stand aside until we have a clearer picture.
US ISM at 15:00 may send the price one way or another but we may tread water now with thin volumes until the key MPC meeting at 12:00 on Thursday.
The British pound did not received any boost from the growing Manufacturing PMI amid strengthening U.S. Dollar but the Bank of England seems to be optimistic over the health of the economy, even though they are in no mood/condition for interest rate hike. Sterling ended the day with fall of -0.23% to close at 1.5588. Sterling is expected to fetch huge gains this week as on coming “Super” Thursday we have the Bank of England delivering its monetary policy, followed by the minutes from the meeting and then the Quarterly Inflation Report on same day. After that, Forty five minutes later, Bank of England Governor Carney will hold a press conference. Also today, the U.K. Construction Purchasing Manager’s Index (PMI) is all set to release which could also provide some support to pair. The initial resistance is placed at 1.5637, and then at 1.5752 whereas the support level to watch is of 1.5514 and below that is 1.5361.
Price remains locked in a 120+ range between the areas shown and even poor Construction PMI numbers have failed to break this band.
Currently the sharp drop following the news has been halted again at the 38.2 and currently price is being squeezed between 1.5604 and 1.5559.
The overall picture remains BULLISH but we’re creeping towards the lower channel that comes in at about 1.5530 so a break of this channel would suggest we’re headed lower.
Very messy picture as we await Thursdays MPC Statement and its unlikely we’ll see much change in GBP as we drift sideways until that event.
A quick note on the MPC Statement. Its highly likely that we could see a hawkish shift on Thursday and the possibility of a 1 0 8 vote or even a 2 0 7 vote on MPC Asset Purchase. Should this happen the GBP will fly. Any opportunity to get LONG on GBP/USD with a b/e STOP should be taken as we could be headed for 1.6000 if we get a BULLISH statement.
(this will be my last update for at least one week).
For several sessions now the GBP has tried and failed to gain entry to the upward channel shown on the chart.
We are now at resistance between 1.5672 and 1.5700.
1.5700 looks key. A break and hold above here would establish GBP/USD back in the channel. A failure to break 1.5700 will paint a BEARISH picture.
There is solid support at 1.5618 so GBP now looks like its caught between a rock and a hard place.
Below 1.5618 and I shall look to SHORT, above 1.5700 and I shall look for LONG trades but for now I’m on the sidelines.
GBPUSD has made an upward movement after a slight fall, and its bullish trend sugest that it will continue to do so.
Yep, the only thing holding it back is Eur/Gbp - whilst that cross is being bought then Gbp being sold - reasonable chance that the cross will soon settle back a little allowing Gbp/Usd to catch up.
Pound is a ticking time bomb. It’s twin deficits will cause investors serious concerns if the current market stress gets any worse… I have a hunch the Feds won’t be raising rates this year, and the boe won’t raise before the Feds do so that will also weigh on the currency. Gbpjpy has more room to slide as well as gbpusd.
So we should buy or sell? Market will be open in few hours time.
[QUOTE=“Alanlim3;718415”] So we should buy or sell? Market will be open in few hours time.[/QUOTE] id wait for a bit of a pullback on gbpjpy than sell it. Gbpusd seems like it will be fairly neutral, so sell it above 1.57.
Ok cool that gd
There is a pretty good support on 1.5080 level, an upward movement chance is more probable than a downward. although penetrating that level will be an obvious sell opportunity…
From my blog:
Bearish on cable
The 1 hour chart on GBPUSD shows price returning to the middle Bollinger Band after the strong move down on Friday. It has failed to close above the middle band with a very bearish candle closing at 10am UK time. I’m looking to sell if it moves below the low of this candle.
The British pound fell against the dollar on Friday. At the end of the trading session GBP/USD was trading at 1.3264, shedding 0.33%.
On Thursday, the Bank of England’s Governor Mark Carney said that the uncertainty caused by Brexit, can put pressure on the UK economy for some time. To support it, the British regulator considers to mitigate the monetary policy until the end of the summer. Probably, the Bank of England in the first place will reduce the key interest rate by 25 basis points, and this will decrease the pound below $1.3.
He did.
But since then, the Pound has been regaining ground. As have the UK share indices.
(In fact the FTSE has just had its best week since 2012.)
The British pound registered a rise against the US dollar on Monday. After a volatile session, the pound added 35 pips at a closing price of 1.3281. The graphics continue to develop under moving averages, while the index of relative strength remained on neutral territory. If prices continue to rise the pair will head towards resistance at 1.3480. On the downside, we can expect a break of the support at 1.3200.