[B]• Euro Bottoms at 100% Extension
• Japanese Yen Towards 113.83 Fibonacci Level
• British Pound Correcting Before Dropping to 1.9500
• Swiss Franc Reverses at 100% Extension
• Canadian Dollar Stages a Comeback
• Australian Dollar Reversal Before 200 day SMA
• New Zealand Dollar Alternate Count is a Diagonal[/B]
[B]
SEE A DECRIPTION AT THE BOTTOM OF THIS REPORT FOR THE INDICATORS IN THE TABLE
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[B]Commentary[/B]: We wrote yesterday that “a potential terminus for the decline is where wave C = wave A at 1.4309. “ The low yesterday was at 1.4310 and the EURUSD has rallied through 1.4410 so far. We posted an update advocating a long in the Elliott Wave forum yesterday afternoon, noticing that a 3 wave decline had followed a 5 wave advance on a short term chart. The advance has continued and at least a push through 1.4410 is expected to complete at least a C wave although there is more bullish potential.
[B]Strategy[/B]: Bullish against 1.4309, target TBD
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[B]Commentary[/B]: Near term, the USDJPY has most likely completed a triangle as a 4th wave. The USDJPY should rally from here into the 61.8% of 117.93-107.20 at 113.83 with 112.73 remaining intact. A support line drawn off of the 11/26 and 12/11 lows reinforces the bullish bias.
[B]Strategy[/B]: Flat
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[B]Commentary[/B]: We wrote yesterday that “if an impulsive decline is unfolding from 2.1160, then the decline should accelerate in the next few days in a third of a third wave down and that the next objective is 1.9525.” Today we are looking at the hourly and considering the short term wave count. At this juncture, it is likely that wave iii of 3 is down since price has broken throught the 100% extension of 2.0831-2.0180/2.0576. When price breaks below this level, it is often a sign that the decline will continue until the 161.8% extension. In this case, the 161.8% extension is at 1.9523. Near term, look for a test of 1.9984 (solid black line).
[B]Strategy[/B]: Get bearish near 1.9984, against 2.0195, target 1.9530
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[B]Commentary[/B]: We have been expecting a reversal at the 100% extension of 1.0886-1.1327-1.1153 at 1.1594. This level was former support as well; and could now be resistance. The high yesterday was at 1.1594 but we have yet to see an impulsive decline; even on the very short term charts. Until then, we will refrain from taking action. Aggressive bears can consider getting bearish against 1.1594.
[B]Strategy[/B]: Flat
[B]Commentary[/B]: The USDCAD is setting up for a big decline. 5 waves down from the top (1.0248) are complete at .9951. This decline completes either wave 1 or A of one larger degree. A wave 2 or B corrective rally should end in the 1.0064-1.0135 area (38.2%-61.8% of 1.0248-.9951). Get bearish in that zone, against 1.0248.
[B]Strategy[/B]: Get bearish in the 1.0064-1.0135 zone, against 1.0248, target TBD
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[B]
Commentary[/B]: We have favored a larger setaback in the AUDUSD in order to complete wave C in an a-b-c correction from .9400. It is possible that the correction is over at .8549, which is just shy of the 50% retrace level of .7673-.9400 and the 200 day SMA at .8532. The next level of support would be the 61.8% at .8333. A cautious bullish bias is warranted against .8549.
[B]Strategy[/B]: Bullish against .8549, target above .9400
[B]Commentary[/B]: Our favored count is that wave c of a flat is underway and price must come under .7435 before we can begin to look for a bottom. Near term, wave i of C looks complete.7507. As such, a corrective setback to the .7671/.7773 zone (38.2% -61.8% of .7937-.7507) would offer a high probability short opportunity. The alternate count has an ending diagonal unfolding from .7365 with the rally from .7507 as the beginning of wave 5 within the diagonal. This count is gaining traction so be cautious on the bear side.
[B]Strategy[/B]: Get bearish in .7671/.7773 zone, against .7937, target below .7435
JTREND is a 4 week rolling pivot. When price is above the rolling pivot, the trend is considered bullish. When price is below the rolling pivot, the trend is considered bearish.
DAILY RSI uses 13 day RSI in order to gauge strength of trend. The trend is considered Bullish if the indicator registers a reading above 60. The trend is considered Bearish if the indicator registers a reading below 40. If the reading is between 40 and 60, then the reading is Flat.
DAILY STOCHS uses 13 day SLOW STOCHASTICS in order to gauge strength of trend. The trend is considered Bullish if the indicator registers a reading above 70. The trend is considered Bearish if the indicator registers a reading below 30. If the reading is between 30 and 70, then the reading is Flat.
200 day ?: Slope of the 200 day SMA