• Euro Very Volatile
• Japanese Yen 108.33 is Key
• British Pound Tests 1.9700
• Swiss Franc 1.1190 a Key Level
• Canadian Dollar Approaches 200 day SMA
• Australian Dollar Attempting Wave 3 Higher?
• New Zealand Dollar Drop Looks Corrective
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Commentary: So much for the EURUSD being in the buy zone as we wrote yesterday. Bigger picture, we remain bullish due to the count that treats the rally from 1.4310 as wave 5 in the 5 wave rally from 1.3261. At this point, we are unsure of the correct count from 1.4310 but this is one that we are working with now. One reason that we think this one correct is that the decline stopped in the area of the former 4th wave (as it is counted here). Another possibility is that the EURUSD remains in a large complex correction from 1.4966. Be sure to check FXCMTR and Top/Bottom updates throughout the day…we are watching the short term pattern closely.
Strategy: Flat
Visit our recently updated Euro Currency Room for specific resources geared towards this currency.
Commentary: We wrote yesterday that “If you wish to take advantage of this bear leg that we expect to drop below 100 (objectives are near 97.50), then resistance should be strong at 107.22 and the bias is bearish as long as price is below 108.33.” Price has remained below 108.33 and risk can be moved to 107.88 at this point.
Strategy: Bearish, against 1107.88, target below 100
Visit our recently updated Yen Currency Room for specific resources geared towards this currency.
Commentary: We wrote yesterday that “given the shelf of support just below 1.9500, the rally this morning makes it possible that at least a multi-week bottom is in place at 1.9483. As such, a bullish bias is warranted against 1.9524 for a rally to at least the 2.0100 level (former resistance). We do not know yet of course whether or not the decline from 2.1160 will complete 5 waves – so far the decline is in just 3 waves. Recent COT data argues for a significant GBP low to form.” We stand by this analysis and expect the Pound to continue gaining. For more on Cable, see Pound Explosion.
Strategy: Bullish, against 1.9524, target TBD
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Commentary: We wrote yesterday that “we still expect a rally but the corrective advance unfolding from 1.0884 is probably an expanded flat. The flat would be complete following a rally through 1.0948. Resistance is in the 1.0978/1.1046 zone and the bias is bearish as long as price is below 1.1190.” The high tonight was at 1.1087 and reward to risk is now favorable for bears. The pair should drop below 1.0836 in the next few days.
Strategy: Bearish, against 1.1190, target below 1.0836
Commentary: As mentioned yesterday, our previously alternate count is now the favored one; and the bullish potential is great. The next level of resistance is the 200 day SMA at 1.0364, but the next level of chart resistance is not until 1.0866. A measured objective is at 1.0915 (extension). The rally from .9755 is the first wave in a larger 5 wave advance so we are waiting for a setback in order to get bullish against .9755.
Strategy: Flat
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Commentary: We maintain a bullish bias above .8682 but the decline from just above .9000 has us a bit worried. “Wave 3 within the 5 wave bull cycle from .8584 is underway. Ultimately, we expect this rally to lead to the completion of the entire rally from 2001. Objectives are in the .9600-1.0000 zone.” We will reconsider if proved wrong; which requires a drop below .8682.
Strategy: Bullish, against .8682, target TBD
Commentary: Strategy has remained flat recently and that is because we have honestly had no idea what is going on with NZDUSD. Yesterday’s violent drop is from the top. Typically, violent declines occur in the middle of moves, not at the beginning. This is why we find this quick decline suspect. That, and that other counts are dollar bearish. In looking at the decline at close range (15 min chart), the drop is actually corrective (3 waves), and is probable a second wave zigzag. As such, a bullish bias is warranted.
Strategy: Bullish, against .7641, target TBD
JTREND is a 4 week rolling pivot. When price is above the rolling pivot, the trend is considered bullish. When price is below the rolling pivot, the trend is considered bearish.
DAILY RSI uses 13 day RSI in order to gauge strength of trend. The trend is considered Bullish if the indicator registers a reading above 60. The trend is considered Bearish if the indicator registers a reading below 40. If the reading is between 40 and 60, then the reading is Flat.
DAILY STOCHS uses 13 day SLOW STOCHASTICS in order to gauge strength of trend. The trend is considered Bullish if the indicator registers a reading above 70. The trend is considered Bearish if the indicator registers a reading below 30. If the reading is between 30 and 70, then the reading is Flat.
200 day ?: Slope of the 200 day SMA
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