[B]• Euro 1.4762/1.4818 Should Be Strong Support
• Japanese Yen Expanded Flat or Breakout
• British Pound Forms Significant Low?
• Swiss Franc Correcting In a Small 2nd Wave
• Canadian Dollar 1.0248 Holds the Key
• Australian Dollar .8900 Should Provide Demand
• New Zealand Dollar To Test December High[/B]
[B] SEE A DESCRIPTION AT THE BOTTOM OF THIS REPORT FOR THE INDICATORS IN THE TABLE[/B]
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[B]Commentary:[/B] The EURUSD is likely to drift lower near term into a support zone from 1.4762 to 1.4818. Still, the EURUSD is very bullish as long as price is above 1.4639. As we have mentioned recently, objectives are in the 1.5200/1.5300 area.
[B]Strategy:[/B] Bullish, against 1.4639, target TBD
Visit our recently updated Euro Currency Room for specific resources geared towards this currency.
[B]Commentary[/B]: We must respect the bearish potential, which is great because the decline fom 114.65 could be the beginning of wave 3 of larger 3 within the 5 wave bear cycle from 124.13. A break below 107.20 warrants a breakout strategy. Subjectively speaking, we favor a rally to exceed 110.11 as an expanded flat (shown as a-b-c) before the next bearish leg. If the decline from 110.11 unfolds in 5 waves, then we will get bearish on the setback.
[B]Strategy[/B]: Flat
Visit our recently updated Yen Currency Roomfor specific resources geared towards this currency.
[B]Commentary[/B]: Given the shelf of support just below 1.9500, the rally this morning makes it possible that at least a multi-week bottom is in place at 1.9483. As such, a bullish bias is warranted against 1.9524 for a rally to at least the 2.0100 level (former resistance). We do not know yet of course whether or not the decline from 2.1160 will complete 5 waves – so far the decline is in just 3 waves. Recent COT data argues for a significant GBP low to form.
[B]Strategy[/B]: Flip to bullish, against 1.9524, target TBD
Visit our recently updated British Pound Currency Room for specific resources geared towards this currency.
[B]Commentary[/B]: The USDCHF count is the same as the EURUSD count, but flipped over. That is, the decline from 1.1594 is viewed as wave 1 within a 5 wave bear cycle and wave 2 is the rally to 1.1190. Wave 3 lower is underway now and a bearish bias is warranted as long as price is below 1.1190. Wave 1 of 3 is possibly complete at 1.0884 and a corrective rally could test the former 4th wave congestion at 1.0975/1.1047 before a more pronounced decline unfolds.
[B]Strategy[/B]: Flat
[B]Commentary[/B]: We are not too confident in the bearish USDCAD bias right now. Previously, we wrote that “either wave B within the A-B-C correction from 1.0248 (or wave 2 within a 1-2-3-4-5 impulse) is complete or close to complete at 1.0080. Even if price does exceed 1.0080, the next move of consequence is lower towards .9500. The bearish bias is strong as long as price is below 1.0248.” The alternate bullish count treats the rally from .9841 as wave 3 instead of c, which means that the rally could accelerate. Additionally, the pair is breaking through a resistance line drawn off of the March and August 2007 highs. In the event of a decline, support should be strong near 1.0050.
[B]Strategy[/B]: Bearish, against 1.0248 BUT look to exit near 1.0050 if given the chance
Visit our recently updated Canadian Dollar Currency Room for specific resources geared towards this currency.
[B]Commentary[/B]: The AUDUSD is in the same position as the EURUSD. Wave 3 within the 5 wave bull cycle from .8584 is underway. Ultimately, we expect this rally to lead to the completion of the entire rally from 2001. Objectives are in the .9600-1.0000 zone. We wrote Friday that “support should be strong near .8900.” The low Friday was at .8890 and the pair has vaulted higher. Again, resistance should be strong near .8890…the bullish bias is strong as long as price is above .8682.
[B]Strategy[/B]: Bullish, against .8682, target TBD
[B]Commentary[/B]: Kiwi is close to testing the December high of .7937. A push through there could complete an ending diagonal as wave 5 within the 5 wave bull cycle from .6639. Under this scenario, a violent reversal would take place and bring price back to .7365 before bullish potential returns. We will watch for now as the pattern plays out but the mentioned scenario is one that could present a bearish opportunity in the next week or so.
[B]Strategy[/B]: Flat
JTREND is a 4 week rolling pivot. When price is above the rolling pivot, the trend is considered bullish. When price is below the rolling pivot, the trend is considered bearish.
DAILY RSI uses 13 day RSI in order to gauge strength of trend. The trend is considered Bullish if the indicator registers a reading above 60. The trend is considered Bearish if the indicator registers a reading below 40. If the reading is between 40 and 60, then the reading is Flat.
DAILY STOCHS uses 13 day SLOW STOCHASTICS in order to gauge strength of trend. The trend is considered Bullish if the indicator registers a reading above 70. The trend is considered Bearish if the indicator registers a reading below 30. If the reading is between 30 and 70, then the reading is Flat.
200 day ?: Slope of the 200 day SMA
Tell us what you think about this report: contact the strategist about the article at <[email protected]>
Tell us what you think about this report: contact the strategist about the article at <[email protected]>