GFT Daily Forex Market Commentary

[B]Forex Market Commentary for March 15, 2007 by Cornelius Luca[/B]

GFT Daily Forex Market Commentary

The dollar tumbled across the board on Wednesday but managed to recover its footing versus the yen. The recovery in the US equity markets should help the dollar today – assuming the equities can sustain their bounce. Pay attention to the bundle of US data.

Euro/dollar

Euro/dollar rallied to its highest level of the month and challenged its highs for the uptrend. Following some profit taking sales, euro/dollar should attempt to make new highs – not sure though.
Above 1.3244, Wednesday’s high, the euro/dollar would eye a pivotal high at 1.3258. Distant resistance is then seen at 1.3296.
Initial support is at 1.3200. Below 1.3155, the pair has support at 1.3130. The next level is 1.3095 and there is a pivotal low at 1.3070. Distant support looms at 1.3030.
Oscillators are mixed.

NEAR-TERM: Mixed
MEDIUM-TERM: Bullish
LONG-TERM: Bullish

Dollar/yen

Dollar/yen recovered early losses but is approaching the tip of a triangle. I doubt it will break higher, so I expect range trading between the borders of this pattern at 117.65 and 115.90.
Immediate resistance is at 117.65. Distant resistance follows at 118.25 from a 50-point pivot that targets 117.75 and 118.75.
Initial support is at 116.85, from a 50-point pivot, which targets 116.35 and 117.35. A pivotal low lies at 115.74. Distant support is at 115.50, from a 50-point pivot, which targets 116.35 and 117.35.
Oscillators are mixed.

NEAR-TERM: Mixed
MEDIUM-TERM: Bearish
LONG-TERM: Bullish

Sterling/dollar

Sterling/dollar managed to reverse losses that saw it sink to an eight-day low. However, the pair remains stuck in the range of March 5.
Strong resistance is at 1.9425. Above 1.9485 the pair has resistance at 1.9560. Distant pivotal resistance is at 1.9672.
Good support lies at 1.9300. Next levels are pegged at 1.9250 and 1.9210. Distant pivotal support is at 1.9179.
Oscillators are mixed.

NEAR-TERM: Mixed
MEDIUM-TERM: Bearish
LONG-TERM: Mixed

Dollar/Swiss franc

Dollar/Swiss franc marched lower still on Wednesday, as expected, and nailed a four-month low at 1.2102. The slide seems overdone, so look for at least a mild recovery before any further selling pressure can resume.
Initial resistance is at 1.2230. A break above this Fibonacci retracement level would signal the return to sideways trading. The pair would then challenge resistance at 1.2280. There is a pivotal high at 1.2354.
Immediate support remains at 1.2157. A break below this level would invite a slide to the pivotal low at 1.2102. Strong support is at 1.2030. There is a distant pivotal low at 1.1883.
Oscillators are edging lower.

NEAR-TERM: Mixed
MEDIUM-TERM: Bearish
LONG-TERM: Bullish