[B]Forex Market Commentary for March 16, 2007 by Cornelius Luca[/B]
GFT Daily Forex Market Commentary
The dollar slumped across the board on Thursday following a wave of weak US data. The dollar should get hurt today as well if the US data is again soft and the stock markets tumble.
Euro/dollar
Euro/dollar rallied to a new high for the uptrend on Thursday and Friday should see it further up.
Above 1.3315, the euro/dollar would eye a pivotal high at 1.3367. Distant resistance is then seen at 1.3560.
Initial support is at 1.3250. The next level remains in place at 1.3200. Below 1.3155, the pair has support at 1.3130. The next level is 1.3095 and there is a pivotal low at 1.3070. Distant support looms at 1.3030.
Oscillators are rising.
NEAR-TERM: Bullish
MEDIUM-TERM: Bullish
LONG-TERM: Bullish
Dollar/yen
Dollar/yen rallied enough on Thursday to test the top of the triangle. It failed, so it should pullback on the day.
Initial support is at 116.85, from a 50-point pivot, which targets 116.35 and 117.35. A pivotal low lies at 115.74. Distant support is at 115.50, from a 50-point pivot, which targets 116.35 and 117.35.
Immediate resistance is at 117.35. Above 118.00, strong resistance follows at 118.25 from a 50-point pivot that targets 117.75 and 118.75.
Oscillators are mixed.
NEAR-TERM: Slightly bearish
MEDIUM-TERM: Bearish
LONG-TERM: Bullish
Sterling/dollar
Sterling/dollar climbed up and remains stuck in the range of March 5… The pair should push further up today.
Strong resistance remains at 1.9425. Above 1.9485 the pair has resistance at 1.9560. Distant pivotal resistance is at 1.9672.
Good support lies at 1.9300. Next levels are pegged at 1.9250 and 1.9210. Distant pivotal support is at 1.9179.
Oscillators are mixed.
NEAR-TERM: Slightly bullish
MEDIUM-TERM: Bearish
LONG-TERM: Mixed
Dollar/Swiss franc
Dollar/Swiss franc saw most of the expected recovery through early trading and then gave back some of the gains on Thursday after the SNB med the market expectations and raised interest rates by 25 basis points. This increased its target band for the three-month LIBOR rate to 1.75-2.75 percent and aims for the mid-point of 2.25 percent. It then fell to a three-month low in Asia, so expect an attempt to push lower today.
Immediate support is seen at 1.2070. Strong support is at 1.2020. Below 1.1940 there is a distant pivotal low at 1.1883.
Initial resistance comes at 1.2140. A break above 1.2180 would signal the return to sideways trading. The pair would then challenge resistance at 1.2225. There is a distant pivotal high at 1.2354.
Oscillators are edging lower.
NEAR-TERM: Bearish
MEDIUM-TERM: Bearish
LONG-TERM: Bullish