[B]Forex Market Commentary for March 27, 2007 by Cornelius Luca[/B]
GFT Daily Forex Market Commentary
The dollar gave up a perfectly strong start of the week following news that sales of new homes slumped 3.9 percent to an annual rate of 848,000 units in February, the lowest rate since June 2000, from a downwardly revised rate in January. The immediate bias is lower for the dollar, but the pace of the decline should decelerate.
Euro/dollar
Euro/dollar fell to a 10-day low at 1.3253 in early trading on Monday. But the weak US report vaulted the pair high enough to not only recoup its losses, but also to reverse all of its Friday’s losses. There is a bullish bias.
Immediate resistance is at 1.3350. Above 1.3385, the euro/dollar retains resistance at 1.3410, 1.3435 and 1.3475. The pair then has distant resistance at 1.3610.
Initial support is at 1.3280. Below 1.3240, the next floor is at 1.3220. Distant support is at 1.3200.
Oscillators are mixed.
NEAR-TERM: Mixed with bullish bias
MEDIUM-TERM: Bullish
LONG-TERM: Bullish
Dollar/yen
The dollar/yen recouped early losses to clock a two-week high of 118.40 on Monday. It closed little changed though, and this means the outlook remains mixed, despite the mildly bullish medium-term outlook.
Initial resistance remains at 118.25 from a 50-point pivot that targets 117.75 and 118.75. Distant resistance follows 119.25 and then at 119.65.
Immediate support is still seen at 117.70. The key support level is at 116.85 from a 50-point pivot, which targets 116.35 and 117.35. Distant support I sat 115.50.
Oscillators are mixed.
NEAR-TERM: Mixed
MEDIUM-TERM: Slightly bullish
LONG-TERM: Bullish
Sterling/dollar
Sterling/dollar fell on Monday to as low as 1.9570 before making an aggressive rally to challenge the top of its current upmove. The immediate outlook is mildly bullish.
Initial resistance is at 1.9725. Next level is at 1.9755 from a Fibonacci retracement level. Above 1.9830, resistance is pegged at 1.9915 from a pivot high.
Immediate support is at 1.9630. Next levels are 1.9570 and 1.9550. Below 1.9500, the pair has further support at 1.9450. Distant support is now seen at 1.9375.
Oscillators are mixed.
NEAR-TERM: Mixed with bullish bias
MEDIUM-TERM: Slightly bullish
LONG-TERM: Mixed
Dollar/Swiss franc
Dollar/Swiss made the expected upmove only through early US trading, when it reached a near two-week high at 1.2226. It then fell sharply and returned most of the gains made on Friday. The immediate outlook is negative.
Initial support is at 1.2110. Support is then seen at 1.2070. Below a Fibonacci retracement level at 1.2030, dollar/Swiss franc has strong support at 1.2000. Below 1.1970, there is a pivotal low at 1.1901.
If 1.2210 breaks, then the dollar/Swiss franc should march further to 1.2230. Distant resistance comes at 1.2290.
Oscillators are mixed.
NEAR-TERM: Mixed with bearish bias
MEDIUM-TERM: Bearish
LONG-TERM: Bullish