[B]Forex Market Commentary for April 4, 2007 by Cornelius Luca[/B]
GFT Daily Forex Market Commentary
The dollar rallied across the board on Tuesday in a move led by the yen and the Swiss franc. This means the carry trades are back in business, but trading should not be too aggressive today. The bias is positive for the dollar. The US economic agenda will see the release of the non-manufacturing ISM report for March.
Euro/dollar
Euro/dollar closed lower on Tuesday but remained confined to an inside range. The immediate outlook is mildly negative.
Initial support is at 1.3315. The next area of support is between 1.3283 and 1.3288. There is a pivot low at 1.3253.
Above 1.3350 the pair has resistance at 1.3380. There are two pivotal highs at 1.3400 and 1.3410.
Oscillators are mixed.
NEAR-TERM: Mixed to slightly bearish
MEDIUM-TERM: Bullish
LONG-TERM: Bullish
Dollar/yen
Dollar/yen rallied to its highest level since February 27 as the yen fell prey to the dollar and the crosses. The currency remains the darling of the carry trades and the 118.25 Gann pivot worked well. The pair should advance further but at a reduced pace.
Above 119.15, dollar /yen has strong resistance at 119.65 from another 50-point pivot that targets 119.15 and 120.15.
Initial support is at 118.40. Strong support is at 118.25 from a 50-point pivot that targets 117.75 and 118.75.
Oscillators are rising.
NEAR-TERM: Mixed with bullish bias
MEDIUM-TERM: Slightly bullish
LONG-TERM: Bullish
Sterling/dollar
Sterling/dollar fell from a near 2 ½-month highs but the decline was insufficient to form a bearish reversal formation. The pair remains overbought, so the bias is negative.
Below 1.9725 the pair has support at 1.9675. The next level comes at 1.9630. It would take a close below this level to signal the end of the uptrend, but this is less likely.
Initial resistance is at 1.9780. Next level looms at 1.9821. A break above this level would signal another bout of aggressive strength, but this is unlikely. There is a pivot high at 1.9914. One can argue that a bullish flag has been unfurled, but the target at 2.0200 looks a little unrealistic at this time.
Oscillators are mixed.
NEAR-TERM: Mixed with downside bias
MEDIUM-TERM: Bullish
LONG-TERM: Mixed
Dollar/Swiss franc
Dollar/Swiss rallied sharply on Tuesday due to fresh demand for carry trades. But the pair remained in an inside range. It closed at the highest level in about three weeks, so the upside is favored initially.
Initial resistance is at 1.2230. A break above this level would signal a rally to 1.2300. Distant resistance is at 1.2355.
Immediate support is at 1.2190. Only a break below 1.2150 would signal the return to range trading. The pair would then slide to 1.2100.
Oscillators are mixed.
NEAR-TERM: Mixed with bullish bias
MEDIUM-TERM: Bearish
LONG-TERM: Mixed