[B]Forex Market Commentary for April 17, 2007 by Cornelius Luca[/B]
GFT Daily Forex Market Commentary
The dollar edged marginally lower versus the European currencies on Monday but rallied against the yen sank in the aftermath of the “quiet” G7 toward Japan’s artificially weak currency. The dollar should climb up today on profit taking against the European currencies and on ongoing demand versus the yen.
Euro/dollar
Euro/dollar stretched to a new 2 ½ year-high in early trading on Monday before peaking and heading lower. All the signs are there for a bearish reversal, but don’t sell this overbought pair unless it’s confirmed.
Initial resistance is at 1.3576 from the day high. Next level remains 1.3620. Above 1.3705, distant resistance is at 1.3805.
Immediate support is at 1.3500. Below 1.3470 there is support at 1.3440. Distant support is at 1.3390.
Oscillators are rising.
NEAR-TERM: Mildly bearish
MEDIUM-TERM: Bullish
LONG-TERM: Bullish
Dollar/yen
Dollar/yen managed to break higher quickly on Monday and reached a new high for the upmove. The upside is still favored in the wake of the insignificant G7 meeting, but take your cues from the pivot at 119.65.
Above 120.15 resistance is seent at 120.75.
Initial support is at 119.65 from a 50-point pivot that targets 119.15 and 120.15. Below 118.75, strong support remains at 118.25 from a 50-point pivot that targets 117.75 and 118.75.
Oscillators are rising.
NEAR-TERM: Slightly bullish
MEDIUM-TERM: Slightly bullish
LONG-TERM: Bullish
Sterling/dollar
Sterling/dollar rallied to a new high for the uptrend on Monday, as expected. The pair is overbought and the downside is favored. Once again, this suggests that long positions should be accompanied by fairly close stop-loss orders.
Initial resistance is at 1.9940. If this level breaks, the pound would likely take attack a Gann level at 1.9990. This is only a hair away from the psychological 2.0000 level.
Immediate support is at 1.9855. This is followed by 1.9825. Below 1.9780, strong support follows at 1.9700.
Oscillators are rising.
NEAR-TERM: Slightly bearish
MEDIUM-TERM: Slightly bullish
LONG-TERM: Slightly bullish
Dollar/Swiss franc
Dollar/Swiss franc traded sideways in a tight range on Monday. Expect a mild recovery today.
Initial resistance comes at 1.2165. Above 1.2230 next level is 1.2290. Distant resistance is at 1.2370.
Immediate support is at 1.2115. Next level is 1.2068. Below it there is a key level at 1.2030. Dollar/Swiss franc then has strong support at 1.2000.
Oscillators are mixed.
NEAR-TERM: Mixed with bullish bias
MEDIUM-TERM: Mixed with upside bias
LONG-TERM: Mixed